School Enrollment Revised Sharply Upward by State : Education: Soaring birth rate and the largest influx of immigrants since 1964 are cited as the major reasons.

A soaring California birth rate and the largest number of new immigrants since 1964 have forced the state Department of Finance to revise its public school enrollment estimates upward for the second time in a year.

Preliminary figures from the department’s demographic unit forecast an average annual statewide enrollment increase in kindergarten through 12th grade of 184,000 pupils per year over the next five years--24,000 more per year than the department’s population experts were predicting last August and 44,000 more than they were expecting a year ago.

Even before these estimates were known, officials said the state faced a $6-billion shortfall in school construction funds. And Duwayne Brooks, director of school facilities planning in the state Department of Education, warned that even the latest estimates may be low. “We have not seen the worst of it yet,” Brooks said Wednesday. “We’re all fearful it’s going to get worse before it gets better.”

The number of live births in California rose by 5.8% between 1987 and 1988, the last years for which figures are available, the Department of Health Services reported. This was an increase from 4.5% the previous year.

The number of new immigrants rose to 421,000 between July, 1988, and July, 1989--an increase of 14.5%. Carol Corcoran, a demographer with the Department of Finance, said that was the biggest increase since 1964.

Most of the new immigrants settled in the Los Angeles area, Corcoran said. About 80% are Latinos and most of the rest came from Asian countries.

The new enrollment estimates will swell statewide kindergarten to 12th-grade enrollments past 5 million and will aggravate the already severe shortage of classrooms in many parts of the state.

The new enrollment estimates--which mean about 1 million additional pupils must be accommodated over the next five years--will increase the need from $6 billion to $15 billion for new classrooms and other facilities, Brooks said.

Even if voters approve an $800-million bond issue for public school construction that will be on the June 5 ballot, and another $800 million to $900 million next November, the need will still be great.

“We sure need this (June) bond issue but it leaves us way short,” State Supt. of Public Instruction Bill Honig said Wednesday. “They’ve got to have the same urgency for schools that they do for roads.”

By “they,” Honig was referring to Gov. George Deukmejian and legislative leaders of both parties.

Overcrowding is most severe in the Los Angeles Unified School District, in the suburbs around Los Angeles, in Riverside and San Bernardino counties and in other booming suburban areas in the Bay Area and near Sacramento.

Live births in Los Angeles County increased from 144,071 in 1984 to 175,293 in 1988. That’s a potential 31,000 more kindergartners in four years.

Los Angeles officials say they need more than $1 billion in new and modernized schools. That would consume more than the entire statewide June bond issue. The district now buses more than 25,000 students to less-crowded schools, at an annual cost of more than $32 million, said Gordon Wohlens, administrator of the priority housing program.

The school board has agreed to add 64 schools to the year-round calendar on July 1, bringing the district total of year-round schools to 166. At that point, 29% of all Los Angeles elementary school pupils will be attending year-round schools.

‘What worries me is, after all these schools are on year-round operation, what’s next after that?” Wohlens asked. “About the only thing left to do is to increase class size and we already have just about the highest class size in the country. The only solution is, we have to build more schools. But where is the money coming from to do that?”