Economists Fret Over County's 2% Growth Rate : Population: A gain of 46,800, mostly generated internally, is easily topped by three neighboring counties. And their new residents have greater purchasing power.

By JOHN O’DELL

May 10, 1990 12 AM PT

TIMES STAFF WRITER

Orange County’s population crept up a scant 2% in 1989, overshadowed by the faster growth rates of its eastern and southern neighbors.

And while the county’s slower growth pace was anticipated--in fact, the annual growth rate has not really changed in the past decade--it is causing some economists and demographers to fret about the future.

Figures released by the state Department of Finance pegged Orange County’s population as of Jan. 1 at nearly 2.33 million, up from 2.28 million a year earlier, for a net gain of 46,800 people.

At the same time, San Diego, San Bernardino and Riverside counties added a total of 266,100 new residents.

Those three counties accounted for 34% of the state’s total population increase, with growth rates ranging from a low of 3.8% for San Diego County to Riverside’s 8.3%. Although Orange County’s lower growth rate translates into a lower level of demand for government services and less impact on traffic congestion than experienced by neighboring counties, it also can have a negative impact on the local economy, says Chapman College economist James Doti.

Orange County’s growth is now almost all generated internally--from additions to current residents’ families--while the surrounding counties are getting the in-migration that once drove Orange County’s growth, Doti said.

“And that affects the demand for housing, retail sales, local savings and investment rates” and many other economic factors, he said.

In-migration generally brings in new residents in their 30s and up, people with jobs, with steady incomes that provide money for retail shopping and for savings, and with equity from a previous residence that they can invest in new homes, Doti said.

Population increases from natural birth rates don’t bring those benefits, he said, because there is no significant increase in the wage-earning population.

Doti said studies by Chapman’s Center of Economic Research show that more than 80% of the county’s 1989 population increase came from natural growth and that the percentage is growing.

In large part, he said, this is because the cost of housing in Orange County has become so high it is turning away would-be immigrants.

Doti said local government policies are to blame for high housing prices because of density restrictions, fees and other limitations.

Greg Lepore, senior research analyst with the county administrative office, sees a different villain--a scarcity of land in many parts of the county and the high cost of developing the hillsides and canyons that make up most of the remaining raw acreage.

In the next 20 years, he said, the population of South Orange County will come to equal the population of North County, meaning most of the future residential construction will be done on South County’s corrugated landscape.

The state population figures bear out that prediction.

The unincorporated areas of the county--located mainly in the south--grew by 20,400 last year, or nearly half the total population increase.

And in North Orange County, with the exception of Huntington Beach--which has seen depleted oil lands opening up to development--the main growth areas have been in the eastern hills.

Anaheim’s population grew by 3,600, a 1.5% increase to 247,800, mainly because of development in the Santa Ana Canyon area.

The same hillsides provided building pads for the homes that enabled Yorba Linda to post a 9.4% growth rate, to 52,400 from 47,900.

The opening of one of the few remaining stretches of flat land in the county, the Irvine Co.’s Tustin Ranch development, helped Tustin post the second-largest increase of any city in the county, up 5.7% to 49,400 from 46,750 in January, 1989.

ORANGE COUNTY POPULATION GROWTH

State officials estimate that Orange County’s population grew 2.1% in 1989, with the largest increases Yorba Linda, Tustin, Dana Point and unincorporated areas.

City 1-1-89 1-1-90 % Change Anaheim 244,200 247,800 +1.5 Brea 33,500 33,800 +0.9 Buena Park 66,200 66,600 +0.6 Costa Mesa 93,200 94,700 +1.6 Cypress 45,350 45,700 +0.8 Dana Point 29,850 31,200 +4.5 Fountain Valley 56,100 56,400 +0.5 Fullerton 111,700 111,700 nc Garden Grove 134,700 135,300 +0.5 Huntington Beach 188,600 191,600 +1.6 Irvine 100,400 102,400 +2.0 Laguna Beach 24,550 24,600 +0.2 La Habra 48,950 49,400 +0.9 La Palma 16,100 16,100 nc Los Alamitos 12,150 12,200 +0.4 Mission Viejo 73,500 75,500 +2.7 Newport Beach 69,900 70,200 +0.4 Orange 106,300 107,700 +1.3 Placentia 41,600 42,050 +1.1 San Clemente 39,100 40,400 +3.3 San Juan Capistrano 24,500 25,250 +3.1 Santa Ana 237,200 236,000 -0.5 Seal Beach 27,350 27,350 nc Stanton 28,350 28,450 +0.4 Tustin 46,750 49,400 +5.7 Villa Park 6,950 6,950 nc Westminster 73,300 73,400 +0.1 Yorba Linda 47,900 52,400 +9.4 Unincorporated 251,200 271,600 +8.1 Orange County Total 2,279,400 2,326,200 +2.1

ORANGE COUNTY: 1989: 2,279,400 1990: 2,326,200 POPULATION CHANGE

In percentage change between Jan. 1989 and Jan. 1990:

0.5% AND BELOW: Newport Beach.

Laguna Beach.

Santa Ana.

Fountain Valley.

Westminster.

Seal Beach.

Los Alamitos.

Stanton.

Garden Grove.

Fullerton.