Californians: 30 Million and Counting

California’s astonishing growth during the 1980s--the biggest human surge by any state in U.S. history--has made it home to more than 30 million people, including every sixth baby born within the nation’s borders, a private population study reported Tuesday.

California added 6 million people in the ‘80s, “more than any state has or ever will gain in one decade,” the Palo Alto-based Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy said. About a third of the new people can be found in the Los Angeles area, which now holds 14.5 million residents--more than every state except for New York and Texas.

More important, the study suggests, California is almost certain to continue swelling twice as fast as the rest of the country until the state reaches 40 million. Only then--in 2010, when babies born this year are in college--will this cycle of births and immigration break and the U.S. population stabilize, the study concludes.

“(California) residents should prepare now for 10 million more people in the next 20 years,” said center director Stephen Levy.

The continued crush of new residents will affect the job and housing market dramatically but may have its most acute impact on the school system, the report suggested. The number of school-age children in California could grow by 1.7 million in the next 10 years, exacerbating the already great demand for classrooms, textbooks, teachers and day-care centers.

The center is a private corporation that analyzes the California economy and population for corporations and public agencies, including the state Energy Commission and Metropolitan Water District of Southern California.

Its study, released Tuesday, says the state’s population includes 29.6 million people who officials expect will be counted by the current U.S. census, plus a sizable number that even census officials agree likely will not be counted, including some minorities and homeless.

“We think there could be maybe a million more,” Levy said.

The study confirms California’s immense presence as a state. One in nine U.S. residents lives in California, which contains more people than Canada, Australia and all but 28 of the world’s countries. Over the last decade, a fourth of the U.S. population growth occurred in California.

Instead of growing more like the rest of the country, California’s society is becoming more distinct, the study concludes. California has a younger population than the bulk of the nation, has the highest birthrate and is divided into larger households, Levy and the study said.

California is different largely because it has turned into the most ethnically varied state in the country, the study said.

About half of California’s growth in the 1980s was due to immigration from foreign lands and from other states, and about half was due to births in the state exceeding deaths, the study said.

Overall, about 75% of the population growth occurred among ethnic minorities, primarily Latinos, blacks and Asians.

The state’s population of about 30 million includes 12.5 million Latinos, Asians and blacks, about 40% of the population, the study said. The minority share should rise to almost 50% by 2000. In all, about 6 million people in California are foreign born, the study said.

One effect of the rising share of minorities could come in politics, the study said, citing the 1988 presidential race in California. The Republican ticket of George Bush and Dan Quayle barely won California with 51.1% of the vote. But Latinos and Asians did not vote in numbers anywhere approaching their share of the population.

The study calculated that if minority voters had turned out in representative numbers, and if those new voters had cast ballots the same way as other minorities, the Democratic ticket of Michael S. Dukakis and Lloyd Bentsen would have won in California.

On a percentage basis, the study presumes that California’s population will grow by almost 18% during the rest of this decade, while the country as a whole is expected to grow by less than 8%.

That growth rate assumes continued high housing prices, more problems with transportation and air quality, and a further decline in government spending on defense in the state. The population could soar even higher if those problems are solved and the state becomes even more attractive, the study said.

In the 1980s, the fastest pace of growth was in the San Diego and Sacramento regions, the study said. In the remainder of the ‘90s, the Los Angeles area will add more than 2 million people and the Bay Area about 1 million, accounting for 60% of the state’s new growth. But the most rapid ‘90s growth will be outside the major metropolitan areas, in the San Joaquin Valley, Sierra foothills and rural areas on the edges of suburbs, the study said.

CALIFORNIA POPULATION PROJECTIONS

Chart shows projected population figures for California broken down in ethnic categories as reported in a study by the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy. Population Share by Ethnic Group Latino 1990: 24.8% 2000: 29.3% Anglo 1990: 57.8% 2000: 51.1% Black 1990: 7.1% 2000: 6.7% Asian 1990: 10.2% 2000: 13% Total Population (Thousands) 1980: 23,667.9 1990: 29,615.5 2000: 34,908.9