THE TIMES POLL : Feinstein Edge of 13 Points Is Holding Steady

Capitalizing on her gender, Dianne Feinstein leads John K. Van de Kamp by 13 percentage points in a race for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination that has changed little in three months, according to a final pre-election survey by The Los Angeles Times Poll.

This has been a contest where it clearly helps to be a woman candidate, Times surveys have found throughout the campaign. In this weekend poll just before Tuesday’s primary--as in previous surveys--women support Feinstein more than men do. And the women who plan to vote for the former San Francisco mayor say they consider it “important” to elect a woman governor, in this case California’s first.

For months and right through the final weekend of the primary campaign, Feinstein in speech after speech has called upon women to “make history” and elect the state’s first woman chief executive.

But her recent pledge to reserve half the jobs in a Feinstein Adminstration for women--in effect, a quota system--has fallen flat among Democratic voters, who reject the idea by nearly 2 to 1, the final survey showed.

The Times Poll, directed by I. A. Lewis, found Feinstein to be leading Van de Kamp, the state attorney general, by 42% to 29% among registered Democrats, with a large 27% still undecided and 2% saying they will vote for “somebody else.”

Meanwhile, another polling organization, The California Poll directed by Mervin D. Field, announced on Sunday that its final survey shows Feinstein leading by 10 percentage points among registered Democrats, according to San Francisco television station KRON.

The size of the turnout on Election Day does not appear to be crucial to the result, The Times survey found. Feinstein’s lead remains roughly the same whether the turnout is low or high, according to projections based on the commitment of people to voting.

Except for a slightly smaller percentage of undecided voters, the latest finding is scarcely different from a Times survey May 17-23, which showed Feinstein leading by 11 points; from a poll in late April that had her ahead by 13 percentage points, or from a poll in March that had her leading by 11 points.

The final statewide survey was conducted by telephone Thursday through Saturday among 920 registered Democrats. The phone numbers called were randomly selected by a computer and represent a cross-section of Democratic households in California. The margin of error is five percentage points in each direction.

The poll found women favoring Feinstein by 18 points and men giving her the edge by seven. Looked at another way, nearly six in 10 of Feinstein’s supporters are women. But Van de Kamp’s supporters are almost evenly divided between women and men.

Evidence that women have an advantage in running for high office this year was found when the poll asked voters to choose between two candidates in a hypothetical race for the U.S. Senate. Those interviewed were divided into two groups and asked to choose between candidates “A” and “B.” The descriptions of the candidates were the same for each group with one important exception: their gender. One group was asked to choose between “Mrs. A” and “Mr. B;” the other group between “Mr. A” and “Mrs. B.”

In each case the woman won, whether she was “A” or “B.”

People also were asked how important they think it is “to vote for a woman for governor.” By 3 to 2, they said it is not important. But Feinstein voters were about evenly split on the question. And by 4 to 3, her women supporters felt it is important.

But even women who back Feinstein for governor reject, by 5 to 3, the notion that “the government ought to see to it that there is an even balance between the number of men and women in public office.” Feinstein has been pledging “to appoint women in proportion to their parity of the population--50%.”

California’s first major woman candidate for governor, however, continues to be helped by another thing she strongly advocates--abortion rights. Van de Kamp also supports the right to an abortion as public policy, but personally opposes abortion. Feinstein’s pitch--one she is using right up until Election Day--is that abortion rights would be best protected by a woman governor.

The Times survey found that 84% of Democratic voters “think that the decision to have an abortion is a choice that must be made only by the woman herself.” They reject the idea “that the government has a legitimate right to regulate abortion.” And these people support Feinstein by 17 points.

The Times survey also found that women interviewers--compared to men interviewers--tend to elicit responses from voters that are a bit more supportive of Feinstein, more favorable of gender quotas for government appointees and less inclined to think that electing a woman is unimportant. But the significance of this will not be known until Election Day--if then--when pollsters ask voters whom they supported in the privacy of the ballot booth where there are no interviewers.

The survey found that Feinstein voters support their candidate more strongly than Van de Kamp voters do theirs.

Also, it showed that liberal voters continue to favor Feinstein, although Van de Kamp generally is regarded as the more liberal of the two. And she also is supported by moderates and conservatives.

Feinstein leads among blacks and whites, acording to poll results.

She has a comfortable lead in Northern California, but the race is close in Southern California.

Among the undecided, women outnumber men by nearly 3 to 2. These women say they do not know enough about the candidates and many also report being “frustrated by the political system.”

VOTER PREFERENCES ON FEINSTEIN, VAN de KAMP

The Los Angeles Times Poll interviewed 920 registered Democrats about their preferences in the governor’s race.

How important do you think it is to vote for a woman for governor?

FEINSTEIN V. DE KAMP ALL VOTERS VOTERS VOTERS Important 45% 25% 36% Unimportant 48% 63% 54% Don’t know 7% 12% 10%

“The government ought to see to it that there is an even balance between the number of men and women in public office.”

FEINSTEIN V. DE KAMP ALL VOTERS VOTERS VOTERS Agree 35% 32% 33% Disagree 58% 59% 58% Don’t know 7% 9% 9%

SOURCE: Los Angeles Times Poll