Bush Cites Importance of Saudi Arabia to U.S.

By DAVID LAUTER and ROBIN WRIGHT

Aug. 4, 1990 12 AM PT

TIMES STAFF WRITERS

WASHINGTON —

As U.S. analysts reported ominous Iraqi troop movements within striking distance of the Saudi Arabian border, President Bush warned Friday that the United States will help “in any way we possibly can” if Iraq invades that strategically vital kingdom.

“The integrity of Saudi Arabia, its freedom, are very, very important to the United States,” Bush declared one day after Iraqi troops overran neighboring Kuwait.

“All you have to do is look at the energy requirements of the world, plus the direct violation of international law by (Iraqi President) Saddam Hussein, to understand why I feel so strongly about it,” Bush said before leaving for the presidential retreat at Camp David, Md. “The long-run economic effects on the free world could be devastating.”

The President’s advisers appeared divided in their expectations about the likely course of the new crisis in the Persian Gulf.

From Moscow to Brussels to New York, U.S. officials continued their intense diplomatic effort to counter the invasion of Kuwait by cutting off the Iraqi oil export sales that Baghdad depends on to finance its war machine.

Reflecting the bitter dilemma that Hussein’s invasion poses for Washington, Administration officials sought international support for an embargo against purchases of Iraqi oil, even though such an embargo could drive up world energy prices and throw the United States into recession.

Optimists among Bush’s advisers pointed to Baghdad’s announcement that it would begin withdrawing troops from Kuwait on Sunday and suggested that the threat to Saudi Arabia now appears to be easing.

More pessimistic officials pointed to Iraq’s continued massing of troops within striking distance of the Saudi border and noted that in the days before his invasion of Kuwait, Hussein had given repeated assurances that he would not take such action. These officials warned against underestimating Hussein’s ability and desire to dominate his region.

When reporters asked what the United States would do if Iraq invades Saudi Arabia, Bush said, “I’m not discussing options, but I would simply say the status quo is unacceptable and further expansion would be even more unacceptable.”

“If they ask for specific help,” he said of the Saudis, “it depends on what it is, but I’d be inclined to help in any way we possibly can.”

The President also said he views the invasion of Kuwait and the threat to other countries in the Persian Gulf “as a matter of grave concern to this country and internationally as well. What Iraq has done violates every norm of international law.”

The potential Iraqi threat to the Saudis, owners of the world’s richest oil reserves, now appears to be the center of Administration concerns, and White House officials openly questioned Hussein’s intentions.

“We don’t know what their intentions are,” White House Press Secretary Marlin Fitzwater said. “One of our problems has been that (Hussein) hasn’t told anybody the truth in the last several weeks.”

If force is needed, congressional leaders--including several who have generally questioned the use of U.S. troops overseas--made clear that Bush would have strong support in any effort to defend Saudi Arabia.

“An invasion of Saudi Arabia means war,” declared Rep. Les Aspin, a Wisconsin Democrat who chairs the powerful House Armed Services Committee.

But Administration advisers noted that, as one senior official said, “none of the military options look good.” U.S. forces in the region are not strong enough to combat the Iraqi army, and larger forces could not reach the region for some time.

In the face of that reality, diplomatic efforts were under way on several fronts as the United States tried to force Hussein to back down.

In Moscow, Secretary of State James A. Baker III and Soviet Foreign Minister Eduard A. Shevardnadze met and issued a joint statement condemning the invasion of Kuwait. The Soviets, who have been Iraq’s chief arms supplier, joined in the call for all nations to stop selling weapons to Baghdad.

At the United Nations, U.S. Ambassador Thomas R. Pickering met with other members of the Security Council to discuss possible mandatory economic sanctions against Iraq. Those discussions are expected to continue through the weekend. The Security Council already has called on Iraq to withdraw from Kuwait, but so far “we’ve received only scorn from Iraq,” Fitzwater said.

In Brussels, U.S. officials met with NATO allies and urged them to join the U.S. trade embargo against Iraq, although Europe and Japan are both far more dependent on Middle Eastern oil than is the United States.

And in Washington, Bush said he had spoken by telephone with Turkish President Turgut Ozal, whose country controls one of the two pipelines through which Iraq exports its oil. The other pipeline runs through Saudi Arabia.

Asked specifically if he had asked Ozal about closing the Iraqi pipeline, Bush replied, “I’m not going to go into details. But clearly a good deal of that oil goes out through Turkey, and that will be an option I’m certain.”

Closing the Turkish pipeline would be meaningless as long as the Saudi pipeline remains open. But if an invasion of Saudi Arabia takes place, closing the Turkish pipeline could rapidly hurt Iraq, which is dependent on oil for nearly all its income and which has heavy international debts.

A Pentagon official who has been closely monitoring the situation suggested that the diplomatic efforts may now be having an impact.

“It may be that the unanimity in the Security Council, the Baker-Shevardnadze statements, all of them very decisive stuff, may in fact have gotten the message across to (Hussein),” he said.

A knowledgeable government official offered a more pessimistic forecast. Iraq “has got the world’s fourth-largest army, and (Hussein) has a very tough view of himself,” the official said. “That will get inflated now.”

One senior congressional source with access to intelligence information said that Iraqi forces were still being redeployed from positions along the Iranian border to an area where the Iraqi, Kuwaiti and Saudi frontiers intersect.

“We don’t know how many troops are involved yet, but they were still moving as of 10 a.m. this morning Washington time,” he said.

The Iraqis “have far more troops in or near Kuwait than they need for an invasion and occupation of that country--and this is cause for concern, that they may be planning something bigger,” another congressional Middle East expert said. He added that he had received reports of several missiles, believed to be strays, hitting on the Saudi side of the border with Kuwait.

However, another source with access to classified intelligence information from the Middle East said he thought that the troop movements were meant to intimidate the Saudis, but not necessarily to signal that an invasion is imminent, or even being planned.

“Saddam Hussein is a lunatic, but he’s not crazy,” this source said. “I think he realizes that there is a line drawn in the sand and that there will be a very substantial retaliation if he crosses it.”

The Iraqis currently have about 100,000 troops in Kuwait, mostly concentrated southwest of the capital along the roads leading from Kuwait to Saudi Arabia, U.S. officials said. Some of the troops are only 5 to 10 miles from the Saudi frontier, State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said, although Iraq’s ambassador to Washington denied that.

In addition to those troops, Iraq has moved up to 120,000 more troops into positions in southern Iraq near the borders with Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. Those troops could be used to reinforce the army in Kuwait or to push south into Saudi territory.

Among the military options available to Bush, Pentagon officials would prefer a plan that calls for moving U.S. warplanes into Saudi Arabia’s Tabuk Air Base, in the northwest corner of the country near the borders with Iraq and Saudi Arabia. The presence of the planes, military officials say, could deter Iraq from invading Saudi Arabia and thereby avoid actual fighting.

National Security Adviser Brent A. Scowcroft met Friday morning with the Saudi ambassador to Washington, Prince Bandar ibn Sultan. Officials would not say if the subject of the airplanes had specifically come up, but made clear that the Administration would be willing to move them.

“We would be pleased to consider any requests we get from the Saudis,” said one senior defense official, when asked whether the Administration is pressing Riyadh for an invitation to position warplanes at the base.

Officials suggested, however, that the Saudis probably would not ask for any U.S. help until after a scheduled Arab summit meeting this weekend in Jidda, Saudi Arabia. Hussein may attend to meet there with Kuwait’s ousted emir, Sheik Jabbar al Ahmed al Sabah, Saudi officials said.

Kuwaiti Planning Minister Abdul-Rahman Awadi, however, said that Jabbar will refuse to hold any negotiations with Hussein unless he withdraws his troops completely from Kuwait. “We are not ready to talk to a man who occupies our land. He has to withdraw first,” he added.

Even after the summit, U.S. experts warned, Saudi fear of Iraq’s power may restrain it from seeking U.S. help until it is too late.

“Unless Saudi Arabia is endangered or about to be overrun, there’s little likelihood they would request outside aid or that we would suggest it,” one senior U.S. analyst said.

In any case, the officials added, Hussein may be able to control Saudi actions by intimidation without resorting to an invasion.

Should an invasion take place, however, congressional leaders were unusually blunt in calling for military intervention.

“I would support concerted military action to support Saudi Arabia,” said House Speaker Thomas S. Foley (D-Wash.) in one typical reaction.

Michigan Rep. William S. Broomfield, the ranking Republican member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, put it more bluntly: “Saddam Hussein stuck his finger in our eye. I say, let’s break his arm.”

Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Sam Nunn (D-Ga.) offered a somewhat more cautious view. Saudi Arabia affects U.S. “vital interests,” he said, but American officials should have learned from the Vietnam War that “you have to have the local people with you if you hope to prevail over the long haul.”

If the Saudis want U.S. help, he said, “they have to ask.”

Meanwhile, the Customs Service began confiscating Iraqi oil under the terms of Thursday’s executive order barring Iraqi products from the country.

Times staff writers Michael Ross, Melissa Healy and Douglas Jehl contributed to this story.