LOS ANGELES TIMES INTERVIEW : Moshe Arens: : Saddam Hussein Could Yet Draw Israel In

He sits behind a simple desk in his spartan office in the headquarters of the Israel Defense Forces. Defense Minister Moshe Arens is bespectacled and soft-spoken, frequently glancing at messages on a computer screen to his left, quietly conferring with aides.

At 64, Arens is entrusted with a near-overwhelming task: the defense of Israel against all foes and, particularly during the gulf crisis, maintaining military vigilance and civilian calm.

He answers questions straightforwardly--no fuss, no bombast. He is the cool center of the hub of the Israeli forces, in constant electronic touch with his far-flung troops and intelligence sources.

Born in Kovna, Lithuania, Arens grew up in Riga, Latvia, and emigrated to the United States in 1939, serving in the U.S. Army from 1944 to 1946. He received engineering degrees from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Caltech, and emigrated to Israel in 1948. He eventually became vice president of Israel Aircraft Industries.

Arens was elected to the Knesset in 1977, served as ambassador to Washington in 1982-83 in the government of Menachem Begin, shifting to defense after the Lebanon war. He later became foreign minister, gaining a reputation as a hard-liner in dealing with the Arab-Israeli conflict. As defense minister, he surprisingly has launched a softer policy in the occupied territories as a way of easing the intifada, the Palestinian uprising.

Question: How concerned are you that Israel will somehow be drawn into the gulf crisis?

Answer: Well, it is not impossible. You’ve heard Saddam Hussein threaten Israel. That he will take actions against Israel directly if action is taken against him by the forces that are being deployed against him in Saudi Arabia; claiming that Israel is involved in these deployments, claiming that Israeli aircraft have been painted over with American markings and that Israeli pilots have been given American identities and that Israel was working hand and glove with the United States. That doesn’t have a grain of truth in it.

Saddam Hussein is not exactly a man who insists on telling the truth. But he has certainly targeted us--so that it is not impossible that as a result of aggressive action on his part we would then be drawn into the conflict.

Q: How do you avoid being drawn into the conflict?

A: If he takes aggressive action against us, there is no way of avoiding it. We’re dealing with a very aggressive person who does have the ability to strike out against us--I think not very effectively, but he has the ability to hit out at us. He’s threatened us with the use of chemical weaponry.

We are doing our very best to deter him. We think that if he does a proper calculation he will be deterred from striking out against us.

Here is a man who has already twice miscalculated. Once, when he went to war against Iran, claiming that the Iranians had attacked him, thinking that within two weeks he would finish that war off--which lasted eight years. And now more recently moving into Kuwait. I’m sure he did not anticipate the kind of reaction he would get through the international community of nations. He might miscalculate a third time.

Q: How serious do you consider the threat of chemical weapons unleashed by Iraq, either by missiles or delivered by aircraft?

A: Again, you have to start by remembering that he has used chemical weapons. He is not in any way apologetic about the fact that he has used chemical weaponry. Not only against Iranian combatants but against Kurdish citizens of Iraq. And so we don’t totally discount these threats that he makes against Israel. His capability to do something effectively, I think, is limited. And we are hoping we are in a position to deter him from doing that, that he will be very concerned about the consequences. But at the very same time, we are ready.

Q: You are ready? Are you satisfied that the Israel Defense Forces are ready for a conventional or nonconventional threat?

A: We have no choice but to be ready for everything. We are in a high state of alertness, ready for anything that may come our way. I hope nothing comes our way.

Q: Many outside observers believe that Israel has a nuclear capability. If this is so, it might make sense to inform the world--or at least Saddam Hussein--so that he would know what is facing him. Any thoughts on such a public statement?

A: You know Israel’s position--that we will not be the first to introduce nuclear weaponry into the area. One of my predecessors, Moshe Dayan, when enunciating this Israeli position, added: “We’re not going to be the third ones, either.”

Q: Is there anything that Israel can or should do to help the United States now that it has committed troops to Saudi Arabia?

A: I think it is clear that the United States has had to enlist Saudi Arabia and Saudi Arabia has enlisted some of the other Arab countries, like Egypt and Syria and Morocco. In that context, at least in this stage of the game, Israel cannot be helpful. And Israeli participation, I think, might actually bring about an unwillingness on the part of some of these Arab countries to permit the kind of deployment the United States is engaged in.

Q: How does Israel see the role of Jordan in this--with the possibility that Iraq might send in troops or the United States might blockade the port of Aqaba?

A: I suppose there’s some relation between the two questions. The entry of Iraqi troops into Jordan--our longest border is with Jordan--would change the geostrategic situation in the area and would represent a very imminent danger to Israel. We have spoken out quite clearly that we would not reconcile ourselves to that kind of change inimical to Israel’s interest.

Aqaba is a hole in the interdiction that they are putting into place with naval vessels. And I don’t think it will remain such a hole with the very large number of U.S. ships in the area. I don’t doubt that just as they will close off the gulf, they will close off the entrance to Aqaba.

Q: As defense minister, how do you assess the mood regarding Saddam Hussein?

A: To Israel, Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait was shocking news. But it didn’t come as a surprise. We had warned of the danger that Saddam Hussein presents to the world.

It was clear to me--and to most Israelis--that this is a man who, once the fighting had ceased against the Iranians, would look around for other targets. And so Israelis are used to going through crises. They know they are living in a very difficult neighborhood in the Middle East. And I suppose some Israelis take a little bit of satisfaction in seeing that the rest of the world maybe now understands better the great difficulties that Israel faces in the Middle East.

Q: How does the crisis affect your policy in dealing with the intifada, the Palestinian uprising in the occupied territories?

A: It doesn’t affect it at all. Most Israelis have been disappointed to learn that many Palestinians in the territories support Saddam Hussein. This is not good news--that there is this kind of admiration for such a ruthless dictator who threatens the peace of the world.

And meeting with Palestinians in the area, I have said that when this man uses chemical weapons against Israel, as he threatened he will, those chemical molecules are not going to be able to differentiate between Jew and Arab. This is a danger to everybody. Unfortunately, there is in some of the Arab world, including many of the Palestinians, this streak of fanaticism and brutality and lack of sharing in the values that we believe--in democracy and tolerance in not using violence unless it is absolutely necessary. It’s unfortunate.

Q: Are you still going to follow your policy of going softer in the occupied territories to reduce the level of violence?

A: That is my policy. We want to maintain law and order--which is not easy when you have so many people participating in violent acts, incited to throwing rocks, to throwing fire bombs, to stabbing people in the street. We want to do that and keep casualties to a minimum. And every time somebody gets hurt, somebody gets killed, whether it’s a Palestinian or an Israeli, it is something that is of concern to me and comes within the realm of my responsibility.

I think that the IDF has been working very effectively these last few months in reducing the casualties. What we have not been able to do so far, and that is also my objective, is reduce the number of Palestinians killed by Palestinians. That today is a far larger number than Palestinians being hurt in confrontations with the IDF.

Q: As a former foreign minister, what do you think this crisis does to the future of Israeli-Palestinian relations and the overall peace process in seeking permanent accord?

A: Moving the peace process forward is of utmost importance to Israelis. We need peace more than anybody else. And if you go visit our military cemeteries, you will see the price we have paid in the lives of our young men over the years because there has not been peace in the area. So we will continue. And I, as defense minister, will do everything I can to move the peace process forward. A lot, of course, depends on the other side as well.

The indications we have gotten in this past week of the great support among the Palestinian population for Saddam is putting something of a damper on the feeling of the Israeli public. Many people are asking who are we going to make peace with. If these people are Saddam Hussein’s supporters, and if they favor the kind of action this man takes, how is it going to be possible to arrive at an accommodation with them? I hope this is maybe just a knee-jerk reaction, that they will sober up as time goes by, and that there is a basic desire among the Palestinian population to live in peace with Israel. If that is there, I have no doubt, we will reach an accommodation with them.

Q: Does this attitude on the part of many Palestinians give the hard, hawkish, right wing in Israel the opportunity to break off talks on the ground that this shows it was never a sensible thing anyway?

A: We’re not going to break off contact. Even these days, considering the crisis in the gulf, I still spend some time every day talking to Palestinians. What has happened, if you look at the Israeli press and columnists, is that many people who were on the left of the Israeli political spectrum, or in the dovish camp, are now coming out and saying: “It looks like we were wrong.” And they wonder if there’s really anybody to talk to over there among the Palestinians now that they see their reaction to Saddam Hussein.

But as far as I’m concerned, as far as the government is concerned, we remain committed to the Israeli peace initiative, and I will do everything I can to work at it.