BETTING THE SYSTEMS : Luke Waits for Favorites’ Losing Streak to End

Somerset’s Turn, running second from the beginning of the seven-furlong race against 4-year-olds and up, charged into the stretch a head behind Muscle Bound, a horse that was tiring after attempting to go wire-to-wire. Somerset’s Turn steadily wore down Muscle Bound through the stretch until he showed in front and took a head lead midway down the straightaway. At the wire, Somerset’s Turn was pulling away, well in front, by three-quarters of a length.

“Cool Hand” Luke let out his breath and sighed with relief.

Although it was only the third race of the sixth (May 2, 1990) day of racing at Hollywood Park, Luke was worried because up until that point he had been losing on a system he had been developing for those gamblers who visited the track every day and who were there for every race.

The win gave Luke a profit of $409.60 and put him in a position from which to regain all the money he had lost up to that point in the brief season and even to go ahead.

Luke, after making a study of the Racing Form, going back a few years through Hollywood Park, Santa Anita and Del Mar race tracks, found that if he waited for the favorite to lose four consecutive races, then he could start a money-progression system beginning with the fifth race until the favorite wins.

And after cashing in on a race, Luke again waits for the favorite to lose four more consecutive times before beginning over with a $2 bet. If the favorite continues to win, say two or three or more races in a row, then Luke keeps waiting. And if the four straight losses continue over from one day to the next, or if the bets continue over from one day to the next, then Luke follows his system as if there never was a nine-race card or a break in racing from day to day.

Of course, a money progression isn’t cheap by any means, Luke admits, and it takes faith in the system as the favorites lose and the bets get higher. Undeterred by the high bets called for as the losses mount, Luke wagers as follows: $2--2--4--8--16--32--64--128--256--512--1,024.

He says that one must even be willing to continue such a series to $2,048--$4,096 and higher to gain a win if the favorites continue to lose, because eventually the favorite is going to come in first, inasmuch as it wins year in and year out at race tracks 28% to 33% of the time.

At Hollywood Park during the past season, Luke never wagered more than $1,024 on a race, because, in its worse losing streak, the favorite finally won after going through 14 consecutive losses, the first four of which were passed over, according to “Cool Hand.”

Luke is fortunate that he can go to the track every day to watch the races, make his bets and enjoy such a system, since most people, unless they are retired, don’t get the opportunity to catch every race day after day. An electrician, carpenter and sort of a handyman who can build and fix anything, Luke can schedule his own work hours, leaving him free for his race track investments.

And since his name is Luke, his cronies started calling him “Cool Hand Luke” after the movie came out with actor Paul Newman in the leading role. Of course, Cool Hand, say his friends, also can refer to his ability with wood and cement and wires and metal.

In any case, when Luke won $409.60 on the third race on May 2, it was after he had lost six races, totaling $64, on April 29.

Continuing his series, on May 2, which was the next racing day, he bet $64 on the first race and $128 on the second. Then he bet $256 on Somerset’s Turn, which paid $5.20. The win returned Luke $665.60. After deducting the $256 bet, Luke won $409.60 on the race. However, after making other bets for the day that totaled $196, Luke ended up with a profit of $213.60.

Another winning session for Luke at Hollywood Park began May 17. Luke passed the fifth through the eighth races as the favorites lost and then started his money progression on the ninth with a $2 wager. The horse lost, but Luke ended up with $2.60 in winnings for the day because he had won the fourth race, the favorite paying $6.60.

Continuing the betting progression on May 18, Luke lost on the following favorites: First race, Flor’em Jak (-$2); second, Picture Princess (-$4); third, Yugo Marie (-$8); fourth, Dr. Mar More (-$16); fifth, Mittens and Mink (-$32), and sixth, Crystals of Ice (-$64).

In the seventh, Luke plunked down $128 to win on Dakotah Thunder, which was the $2.80 to $1 favorite. Running a mile against six other 4-year-olds and up, Dakotah Thunder came out of the No. 5 post position, settled into third, dropped back to fourth at the half-mile pole and then made his move.

At the three-quarter mark Dakotah Thunder moved into second and took aim at the leader, Joe Nasr, who was in front by a head. Dakotah Thunder caught Joe Nasr in the middle of the stretch and pulled away to win by two lengths. The nag paid $7.60, giving Luke a return of $486.40 and a profit on the race of $358.40.

Luke didn’t make another bet that day as the favorites won the eighth and ninth races. However, for the day, after deducting the $126 bet on the first six races, Luke left the track with $232.40 in winnings for the day.

Not all is sweetness and light, even as Luke wins. Some of his cronies are disbelievers, scoffing at his system and calling him naive. They argue that the system is fine providing the favorite comes up a winner when $512 is bet. However, going beyond that, only four more losses would call for a wager of $16,224. And who has that much loot? Even if one has, betting such a huge sum to win on a horse certainly would change the odds, cutting down on the mutuel.

Luke brushes off such criticism like taking swats at flies. He points out to those of little faith that on 14 of the 67 Hollywood Park racing days, there were no bets to be made. However, during the 53 he did wager, his returns from winnings amounted to $2,316.40 and his losses equaled $483.60--for a profit of $2,316.40, which is nothing to sneeze at. Winning days occurred 77.3% of the time, with 41 showing gains and only 12 losing.

Despite his detractors, Luke manages to keep smiling all the way to the bank. After all, he tells himself, he is a $2,316.40 winner for the season, while most bettors are losers.