POLITICS / DEMOCRATIC GLOOM : Population Shifts Carry Voter Tides to GOP Beachhead : New Census Bureau numbers favor the Sun Belt. The trend also adds to California’s status as a pivotal presidential state.

With the release of the Census Bureau’s preliminary 1990 population count, Democrats feel the electoral noose tightening around their necks.

Although the numbers could still change in the final tally, the figures show a clear trend away from the Northeast and Midwest and toward the South and West. And that points to more difficulty for the Democrats.

Background

Almost all of the eight states growing most rapidly--and thus projected to gain both new congressional seats and more electoral votes in the 1992 election--have voted heavily Republican in recent presidential contests.

California alone will gain seven congressional seats and cast 54 electoral votes in 1992--or one-fifth of the total needed for victory, according to estimates based on the preliminary census figures by Election Data Services, a Washington consulting firm. But only two Democratic presidential candidates have carried the state since World War II--Harry S. Truman in 1948 and Lyndon B. Johnson 16 years later.

Most of the other rapidly growing states--led by Florida and Texas, which are expected to gain seven electoral votes between them--have been even less hospitable to Democrats in the most recent national elections. In 1988, Democratic presidential nominee Michael S. Dukakis not only lost seven of those eight states to George Bush but won just 42.3% of the vote in them--significantly less than his national showing of 45.6%.

By contrast, the 13 Northeastern, Midwestern and other Southern states expected to lose electoral votes have been among the Democrats’ most competitive in national contests. New York, Pennsylvania and Michigan--states Democrats have considered to be at the core of their eroding foundation--will lose as many electoral votes as California will gain, Election Data Services estimated.

Overall, Dukakis carried four of the 13 states projected to lose electoral influence in 1992 and won 47.5% of their vote--well above his national average.

Potential Effect

If the likely 1992 election map had been in place during the 1988 campaign, Bush’s wide electoral college victory would have been widened by an additional 10 votes. More revealing, if the photo finish 1960 presidential campaign had been run under the new map, John F. Kennedy’s 84-vote electoral college victory over Richard M. Nixon would have been reduced by more than two-thirds.

The continued shift of population into Republican strongholds across the South and West fortifies those who believe that, under normal circumstances, the GOP has a virtual electoral college lock on the presidency.

“Absent a national calamity, many of these states are permanently absent for the Democratic Party,” Democratic pollster Mark Mellman acknowledges. “Their growth means there are more electoral votes that are not in play.”

That problem could strengthen those Democrats who say that the party must choose more moderate presidential candidates with Sun Belt appeal. With the influence of the Northeast and the Midwest inexorably declining, those critics say, the party can no longer build an electoral strategy around liberal nominees who are from its traditional base.

“Democrats have to look to the growth areas because you don’t win elections by hanging onto the past,” said Al From, president of the Democratic Leadership Council, an organization of centrist Democrats.

Outlook

Above all, analysts in both parties agree, the new figures heighten California’s status as the pivotal state in national elections. For Democrats, in fact, it may now be virtually impossible to win the presidency without winning California, many party strategists say.

Although the Democrats have rarely carried California since Franklin D. Roosevelt’s day, they have generally stayed close here. In 1988, Dukakis won almost 48% of the state’s vote.

That competitive situation should be good news for state politicians with national ambitions. With both parties looking for an edge in what is becoming the showdown state in national politics, “elected officials in California will have to be considered every single time for President or vice president,” Mellman said.

THE GOP’S IMPROVING PROSPECTS

The preliminary Census Bureau count indicates eight states will gain electoral votes in 1992, almost all of them solid strongholds for the Republicans in past presidential voting.

State Electoral GOP victories 1988 Vote in past 6 winner Gain (est.) elections California 7 6 Bush (R) Florida 4 5 Bush Texas 3 4 Bush Arizona 1 6 Bush Georgia 1 4 Bush North Carolina 1 5 Bush Virginia 1 6 Bush Washington 1 4 Dukakis (D)

Source: Election Data Services