THE TIMES POLL : Views on Economy May Decide Race for Governor

Dianne Feinstein and Sen. Pete Wilson continue to run neck-and-neck in their race for governor, with the voters’ views of the candidates tied closely to attitudes about the economy, The Los Angeles Times Poll has found.

People worried about a recession tend to support Democrat Feinstein, the survey showed. Those with a more optimistic outlook on the economy back Republican Wilson.

Increasing anxiety about the economy is helping Feinstein. Fortunately for Wilson, however, Californians are more upbeat about the state’s economy than the nation’s. So it is not a decisive issue at this point.

Another emerging development is that Feinstein is establishing herself as the candidate of “change,” interviews showed. This factor could become especially important if more people start fretting about the state’s economy. Feinstein has reclaimed the edge she enjoyed for months among women, but seemed to lose during the summer. Wilson, meanwhile, is getting a slight boost from men. One partial explanation could be that women are more concerned about California’s economy than they were a month ago. Men, on the other hand, tend to look at the economy more positively, interviews showed.

Basically, the survey found Feinstein’s strengths to be her political philosophy and a sense of dynamism that she projects. Wilson’s strong points are his experience and the image of a solid, knowledgeable manager. In people’s minds, she represents change; he doesn’t.

The statewide survey of registered voters found Feinstein being supported by 41% and Wilson by 39%, a statistical tie given the margin of error. “Other candidates” were preferred by 2% and 18% of the voters still were undecided roughly six weeks before the Nov. 6 election.

The standings are virtually the same as recorded by The Times Poll a month ago, when the candidates were tied at 39% apiece. Since then, Feinstein has picked up two points from the undecided column, the latest survey indicated.

The Times Poll interviewed 1,892 registered voters by telephone for a six-day period ending last Tuesday night. The margin of error is three percentage points in either direction. Susan Pinkus, assistant Times Poll director, supervised the survey.

Feinstein, a former mayor of San Francisco, was found to be leading big in her native Bay Area and holding an edge in Los Angeles County. Wilson, a former San Diego mayor, was ahead in the rest of Southern California. They were running virtually even in Northern California outside of the Bay Area.

The candidates were being solidly supported by their respective ideological and party bases. Those who identify themselves as liberals were backing Feinstein by a whopping margin of 55 points; conservatives were supporting Wilson by 45. Moderates were divided about equally, indicating these voters will determine the winner, as they usually do. Similarly, Democrats were supporting their party’s nominee by 47 points and Republicans were supporting theirs by 53. Independents were split virtually down the middle.

Union members were playing a significant role in Feinstein’s race, supporting her by more than 5 to 3.

“Right now, this race is riding on the economy. It could be a bumpy ride,” said Times political analyst William Schneider.

While about one in five Californians presently think the state’s economy is in good shape, they are outnumbered by the 1 in 4 who believe its economic shape is bad, interviews showed. This negative judgment represents a complete reversal in only one month, a period of increasing fears about recession, tumbling stocks and soaring oil prices being pushed sky-high by the Persian Gulf crisis.

People who are down on the state’s economy favor Feinstein by 18 points. But those who think it’s in good shape lean toward Wilson. Voters who believe it’s “somewhere in between” good and bad are split about equally between the candidates--a factor that is saving Wilson because this group represents the majority of the electorate.

What Wilson has to hope is that the voters’ more pessimistic attitude about the nation’s economy doesn’t spill over into their view of California’s. Nearly half the voters think the country already is in a recession and these people are backing Feinstein by 11 points. Among everybody else, there is a slight tilt toward Wilson.

Only a third of the people who believe the nation is suffering a recession think that California’s economy is in bad shape, the poll found.

If voters want to change the economy--or any number of other things--they tend to side with Feinstein, the survey showed. This has been her campaign strategy and it appears to be working.

For example, voters who think California has “gotten off on the wrong track” generally back Feinstein by 14 points. And they outnumber people who believe the state is “going in the right direction” by 3 to 1. The latter, more satisfied voters, lean toward Wilson. Meanwhile, the majority of voters, who say “things are somewhere in between,” are split about equally between the candidates.

By 3 to 2, people say “it’s time for a change to the Democratic Party” in the governor’s office after eight years of Republican reign. Significantly, this is not just a Democratic view; independent voters tend to share that opinion.

The electorate’s attitude toward the gubernatorial candidates is tied to its perception of Gov. George Deukmejian, interviews showed. Voters who “disapprove of the way George Deukmejian is handling his job as governor” support Feinstein by 3 to 1. Conversely, those who approve of Deukmejian back Wilson by more than 2 to 1.

The lame-duck governor does not have a particularly good job rating at this waning juncture of his Administration: It is 50% approval, 42% disapproval.

With anti-politician sentiment on the rise--pushed along in California by a sweeping FBI investigation of state Capitol corruption that so far has resulted in the convictions of two former legislators--Feinstein also benefits from being the candidate voters believe “would do the better job of improving ethics in government.”

But Feinstein’s supporters say “the single most important quality” that they like about her is “political philosophy.” Nothing else comes close. For Wilson’s supporters, his experience and philosophy rate equally as assets. Wilson’s career in elective office covers 24 years and all levels of government--local, state and federal.

Feinstein’s political career reaches back almost as far, but has been spent entirely at the local level. Voters regard her as the less knowledgeable of the two candidates, the survey showed. They also give the edge to Wilson on “strongest qualities of leadership.”

But, by 5 to 2, people think Feinstein is the more dynamic.

She again holds a significant lead among women--10 points. Wilson has a slight edge among men. In The Times survey a month ago, women and men divided their votes about equally between the two candidates. Since then, women have soured more on the economy than men. Also, women appear to be rallying around the party’s candidate; the female votes Feinstein has picked up have come primarily from within Democratic ranks.

Seeking to become California’s first woman governor, Feinstein is getting a lot of help from the abortion issue. By 3 to 1, voters believe Feinstein “would do the better job of handling abortion.” Women particularly think this, by 4 to 1. And people who feel this way back her by 45 points.

Both Wilson and Feinstein support a woman’s right to decide for herself whether to have an abortion, a view shared by 82% of the voters surveyed. The small proportion of voters--12%--who say “the government has a legitimate right to regulate abortion” back Wilson by 44 points.

Abortion is of special importance to women voters, the survey showed. They rank it second only to education as the “most important” issue in deciding whom to support for governor. Men rank abortion in seventh place on their list of litmus-test issues--behind education, crime, the environment, the economy, government ethics and taxes.

Feinstein also is benefiting, particularly among women, because of her emphasis on education. Voters who consider education the “most important” issue favor Feinstein for governor. And by 5 to 3, people regard her as the candidate who would be best for schools.

No. 2 on the list of “most important” issues for men and women combined is crime. And on this subject, Wilson benefits. Voters who consider crime an important matter favor Wilson. By roughly 4 to 3, people think the GOP candidate would do the better job of battling criminals.

Ranking nearly equal to crime as an important issue is the environment, which works as a big advantage for Feinstein. People especially concerned about environmental protection support her by 17 points. By 5 to 2, voters think she would be best for conservation causes.

During the campaign, Feinstein has emphasized her support of Prop. 128, the sweeping environmental initiative called “Big Green.” Wilson opposes the ballot measure. Feinstein’s support of the proposal clearly has helped her, interviews found. Although 6 in 10 voters say her position “doesn’t make any difference” to them, among the remainder of the electorate twice as many report that it makes them “more likely” to support her rather than “less likely.”

Conversely, Wilson’s opposition to “Big Green” hurts him. Twice as many say that his stand makes them “less likely” to support him rather than “more likely.”

Strong issues for Wilson appear to be taxes, the state budget and managing money matters generally, although they do not rate especially high on the voters’ list of anxieties. People concerned about taxes favor Wilson by 23 points. By roughly 5 to 3, voters think he would do the best job guarding the taxpayers’ wallet.

Also, by nearly 2 to 1, voters think Wilson “would do the better job of managing the state’s economy and financial affairs.”

But the vast majority of voters--64%--say they can find only “minor” differences, if any, “in what Dianne Feinstein and Pete Wilson stand for.”

And regardless of whom they favor, California voters--by 2 to 1--expect deep down that Wilson will emerge the winner on Nov. 6.

VOTER PREFERENCES

Following are results from a Los Angeles Times Poll of 1,892 registered voters as compared to responses from a poll in mid-August: If the election were held today, whom would you vote for?

RACE AND CANDIDATE NOW AUGUST GOVERNOR Dianne Feinstein 41% 39% Pete Wilson 39% 39% Someone else 2% 2% No opinion 18% 20% LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR Leo McCarthy 36% 35% Marian Bergeson 18% 17% Someone else 1% 1% No opinion 45% 47% SECRETARY OF STATE March Fong Eu 49% 48% Joan Milke Flores 14% 13% Someone else 1% 1% No opinion 36% 38% CONTROLLER Gray Davis 42% 44% Matt Fong 15% 15% Someone else 1% 0% No opinion 42% 41% TREASURER Kathleen Brown 24% 23% Thomas Hayes 23% 24% Someone else 0% 1% No opinion 53% 52% ATTORNEY GENERAL Arlo Smith 25% 25% Daniel Lungren 26% 25% Someone else 0% 0% No opinion 49% 50% INSURANCE COMMISSIONER John Garamendi 32% 33% Wes Bannister 16% 16% Someone else 1% 1% No opinion 51% 50%

Source: L.A. Times Poll