County Could Be Wilson’s Winning Edge : Times Poll: The senator has built a 33-point lead over Feinstein among county voters, a survey finds. The margin could be enough to ensure his election.

U.S. Sen. Pete Wilson’s lead over Dianne Feinstein among Orange County voters has mushroomed to a commanding 33-point margin, perhaps big enough to carry him to victory in the statewide gubernatorial race, according to a Times Orange County Poll.

Wilson’s 62% to 29% lead in the county translates into an edge of well over 200,000 votes, assuming a voter turnout similar to that of recent gubernatorial elections. That margin is more than any Democrat has been able to overcome in a statewide race in recent history, said pollster Mark Baldassare.

“It would be very difficult for Feinstein to lose by that kind of margin in Orange County and win the governor’s election,” Baldassare said.

The Orange County results are also significant, Baldassare said, because the county is “a bellwether for the swing voters, and this poll tells us that the marginal Democrats have deserted Dianne Feinstein for Pete Wilson.”

A Times statewide poll conducted for six days ending last Wednesday showed Wilson with 45% and Feinstein with 42%. A week earlier, he held a one-point edge, and last month, Feinstein led Wilson statewide, 41% to 39%.

Since the last Times Orange County poll in September, Wilson has picked up 14 points among county voters, while Feinstein has increased her total by just 7 points. Eight percent were still undecided, and 1% said they would vote for other candidates.

Orange County’s own Republican candidate for statewide office, state Sen. Marian Bergeson (R-Newport Beach), is not commanding the same level of support among county voters in her bid to unseat Lt. Gov. Leo McCarthy, however.

Bergeson holds a 20-point lead over McCarthy--51% to 31%, a substantial increase over the 35% to 26% lead she held in September. But that margin would put her fewer than 150,000 votes ahead of McCarthy, not enough to assure her success, Baldassare said.

“In 1986, (U.S. senatorial candidate Ed) Zschau had more than a 171,000-vote edge in Orange County,” said Baldassare. Zschau lost statewide to Sen. Alan Cranston by 120,000 votes. “A 150,000-vote edge . . . is probably not enough to offset Democratic votes elsewhere in the state.”

The latest poll was conducted Monday through Wednesday of last week by Mark Baldassare and Associates. Six hundred registered voters were interviewed by telephone, and the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4%.

Wilson, campaigning in Orange County last week, said that a quarter-million-vote lead in the county would ensure victory for Republican candidates.

“If we can win Orange County by 250,000 votes, we will all be there,” Wilson said.

Eight years ago, in his race for the U.S. Senate against former Gov. Edmund G. Brown Jr., Wilson won Orange County by about 230,000 votes and went on to win statewide by 470,000 votes.

A large margin of victory in Orange County is necessary for Republicans to win statewide because the rest of the state traditionally tilts toward the Democrats.

Wilson’s huge lead over Feinstein holds steady among all age and income groups in the county, and there is no significant difference between North County and South County voters.

Among Republicans, Wilson was favored by 79% of poll respondents, with Feinstein picking up just 15% of the GOP vote.

Democrats, however, are far less loyal to their party’s candidate. Just 58% of Democrats said they will vote for Feinstein, while one of every three said they intend to vote for Wilson.

Feinstein’s only deeply entrenched support came from Democratic women, 68% of whom said they would support the former San Francisco mayor. But even among that group--Feinstein’s strongest--28% said they would vote for Wilson. Among Democratic men, Feinstein’s lead over Wilson was just 46% to 39%.

Among Orange County women from both parties, Wilson’s lead was smaller than overall but still substantial--57% to 36%. Men favored Wilson by a margin of 67% to 23%.

While men are more likely than women to support Wilson, the opposite is true in Bergeson’s case. Just 49% of men said they would vote for Bergeson, contrasted with 53% of women.

Bergeson’s strongest area of support was around her South County senatorial district. In South County, she holds a 59% to 27% over McCarthy, but in North County that lead shrinks to 48% to 32%.

“Bergeson doesn’t have the needed name recognition outside of her district to make herself a more viable candidate for lieutenant governor,” Baldassare said. “She’s new on the state scene, and Leo McCarthy’s been around for a long time.”

Governor “If the election for governor were held today whom would you vote for?” Dianne Feinstein: 30% Pete Wilson: 62% Don’t Know: 7% Other: 1%

Pete Dianne Don’t Wilson Feinstein Other Know Democrat 33% 58% 1% 8% Republican 79 15 1 5 Men 67 23 1 9 Women 57 36 1 6

Lieutenant Governor “If the election for lieutenant governor were held today, whom would you vote for?” Leo McCarthy: 31% Marian Bergeson: 55% Don’t Know: 13% Other: 1%

Marian Leo Don’t Bergeson McCarthy Other Know Democrat 22% 59% 1% 18% Republican 68 17 1 14 Men 49 32 1 18 Women 53 30 1 16