THE TIMES POLL : Governor’s Race Still Too Close to Call

The decisive issues are breaking Sen. Pete Wilson’s way and Dianne Feinstein’s gender is not helping her much, but their race for governor still is too close to call as Election Day nears, according to the Los Angeles Times Poll.

Wilson’s strong suits are his perceived abilities to fight crime and manage the economy, two issues of increasing importance to voters. Feinstein’s best issue is education, but that is a topic of declining concern to the electorate, the survey showed.

And despite her exhortations to women that “a state that is 51% female can’t afford Pete Wilson as governor,” Feinstein is not getting much of a gender-based boost from women voters. What advantage she does enjoy among women seems to result primarily from her party membership rather than her gender, the poll found.

However, with less than a week remaining before Californians elect a new governor, The Times Poll found registered voters still split virtually down the middle: 43% for Republican Wilson, 42% for Democrat Feinstein, 3% for “some other candidate” and 12% undecided.

The Times Poll interviewed 1,993 registered voters by telephone for four days ending Tuesday night. The margin of error is three percentage points in either direction.

By comparison, a Times survey last week found Wilson up by three percentage points. The week before that, Wilson was up by one point. In late September, Feinstein was up by two. And the candidates were dead even in August. In each case, these differences tended to be statistically insignificant, given the margins of error.

In the latest survey, The Times Poll also adjusted the numbers to calculate different results with various hypothetical voter turnouts. Among voters regarded as the most likely to cast ballots in a medium-size turnout--one in the mid-60% range--Wilson was up by three points.

Another uncertain variable that could decide next Tuesday’s election is the party composition of the electorate. According to official secretary of state figures--on which The Times Poll bases its calculations--49.5% of California’s approximately 13.5 million registered voters are Democrats and 39.3% are Republicans. Another 9.1% officially declined to state a party and the rest are members of minor parties.

But according to columnist Joe Scott, writing in his newsletter “Political Animal,” many pollsters believe that the true party registration figures contain less of a Democratic advantage than what the secretary of state reports. They generally peg the breakdown at 48% Democrat and 42% Republican, he says. Cranking those unofficial registration figures into its computer, The Times Poll found Wilson to be up by three points among all registered voters and by five points among those likely to cast ballots in a medium-size turnout.

Experimenting further and projecting party get-out-the-vote efforts that benefit Republicans more than Democrats--something which now seems likely because the GOP plans to outspend its opposition by nearly $5 million on this Election Day project--Wilson’s edge increases even more. For example, among a hypothetical electorate composed of 46% Democrats and 44% Republicans during a medium-size turnout, Wilson’s lead based on Times interviews is 7 percentage points.

The Times Poll also found that more than one in five registered voters plan to cast absentee ballots, or already have. Wilson holds a slight lead among these people. But those planning to vote in the traditional way at their neighborhood precincts are almost evenly divided between the two candidates.

As for the remaining undecided voters, they tend, compared to the electorate as a whole, to be more politically independent and philosophically moderate, younger and less educated. They also tend to be female; 6 in 10 of the undecided are women. Proportionately more blacks and Latinos are undecided. And, it follows, proportionately more undecided voters live in multiethnic Los Angeles County.

Undecided voters also are less apt to vote at all. In fact, two-thirds of the currently undecided failed to cast ballots in the June primary election, interviews showed.

Fortunately for Wilson, the issues working best for him are the ones of increasing concern to the voters.

Crime is the No. 1 issue of importance to voters when measuring gubernatorial candidates, the survey showed. But it has not always been this way in the campaign. In mid-September, crime ranked only No. 3 on the issues list--behind education (school was just starting up for the fall) and government ethics (another former state senator had just been convicted on corruption charges).

Voters who currently regard crime as the No. 1 issue prefer Wilson over Feinstein by 4 to 3. Asked specifically which candidate “would do the better job on crime,” voters said Wilson by 5 to 3.

No. 2 on the voters’ list of important issues is the economy, which has been propelled to a high priority by recession jitters, slumping real estate markets, falling stocks and rising oil prices. In September, the economy ranked only No. 6 on the issues list.

Now, voters who rate the economy as an important issue prefer Wilson by 3 to 2. And asked which candidate “would do the better job of managing the state’s economy and financial affairs,” the voters’ answer was Wilson by nearly 2 to 1.

Similarly, voters who regard taxes as an important issue favor Wilson by 2 to 1. Taxes ranks only No. 6 on the issues list, but in September--before Congress negotiated a major tax hike to reduce the federal deficit--it barely registered on the scale of voter concerns.

By 5 to 3, voters said Wilson “would do the better job on taxes.”

There was little evidence in this survey that Wilson’s Senate vote against the historic tax increase, deficit-reduction package last Saturday affected the electorate’s attitude toward him.

However, the survey indicated that the senator may be vulnerable to Feinstein’s denunciations of his vote against a civil rights bill designed to give women and minorities more power to press discrimination cases. Wilson opposed the bill on the grounds it would have set up a quota system, something this survey showed California voters continue to oppose.

For half the electorate, Wilson’s vote against the civil rights bill does not affect a decision about whether to support him for governor. But among the other half, people “less likely” to support him because of his vote outnumber those “more likely” to by nearly 3 to 1.

Feinstein still benefits from the issue that has dropped to No. 3 on the voters’ list--education. People concerned about it favor her by 4 to 3. And when asked specifically which candidate “would do the better job on education,” the answer was Feinstein by 3 to 2.

The environment is No. 4 in importance, voters said. And this issue likewise helps the Democratic nominee. People especially concerned about it prefer her by nearly 2 to 1. And voters, by roughly 5 to 2, think she would do a better job than Wilson protecting the environment.

Abortion, No. 5 on the list, also helps Feinstein. People concerned about it favor her by 4 to 3.

But the big disappointment for Feinstein must be that in this general election--unlike her primary race--she is not getting a big boost from women because of her gender. Women tend to vote for her simply because they are Democrats--not because they particularly want to elect the state’s first woman governor--the survey indicated.

Feinstein is up by six points among women--Wilson is up by nine among men--but 55% of women voters are Democrats, according to the interviews. Looked at another way, women outnumber men in the Democratic Party by nearly 3 to 2.

In this race, men and women Democrats alike are supporting Feinstein by roughly 3 to 1. Republican women loyally are backing Wilson by almost 4 to 1. But if there is any slight gender bias for Feinstein it seems to be within this latter group of GOP women, because Republican men are backing Wilson by an even larger ratio, 6 to 1.

By geographical region, Feinstein is up by two points in Los Angeles County, but Wilson leads by 15 in the rest of Southern California. In her home San Francisco Bay Area, Feinstein is ahead by 29 points, but in the remainder of Northern California Wilson is up by five.

The conventional wisdom in political circles is that Wilson ultimately will win, and this prediction also is subscribed to by ordinary voters. Asked whom they think will emerge victorious on election night, voters replied Wilson by 2 to 1.

The survey was supervised by Susan Pinkus, assistant Times Poll dirtor.

ADDITIONAL CAMPAIGN COVERAGE: A3, A22

VOTER PREFERENCES

Following are results from a Los Angeles Times Poll of 1,993 registered voters. Also shown are responses from previous polls. THE RACE FOR GOVERNOR

NOW OCT.** OCT.* SEPT. AUG. JUNE+ MAY++ Dianne Feinstein 42% 42% 41% 41% 39% 40% 36% Pete Wilson 43% 45% 42% 39% 39% 37% 42% Someone else 3% 1% 1% 2% 2% 2% 1% Don’t know 12% 12% 16% 18% 20% 21% 21%

* Oct. 19-24 ** Oct. 13-16 + After June primary ++ Before June primary Source: L.A. Times Poll