Money Seen as Key Factor in Senate Choice

Now that Californians have chosen their next governor, political speculation has turned rapidly to who the state’s next senator will be.

The job’s current occupant, Sen. Pete Wilson--who as the next governor will get to pick his successor in the Senate--reminded reporters in San Diego on Wednesday that during his campaign he repeatedly said he “really was not going to think about it until the need arose.”

Now, “the need has arisen. So I will think about it,” he said.

A lot of other people already are thinking for him. And the conventional wisdom is that one factor is likely to outweigh all others: money.

“You’ve got to be able to raise $6 million or $7 million in the next year and a half to do this,” said one California politician who already has been considering a Senate race. “That really limits the field.”

Whomever Wilson appoints will be tossed into the political equivalent of the Iron Man triathlon: learning the ropes of the Senate, preparing to run in a confirmation election in 1992 and running again only two years later when Wilson’s term ordinarily would have expired. The total cost of the two back-to-back races could easily reach $20 million.

“It’s daunting. It would be 100%, 150% of your time,” said state Sen. Rebecca Q. Morgan of Los Altos Hills, a Wilson favorite and GOP moderate who has been mentioned frequently as a possible nominee. Morgan, who represents part of the Silicon Valley area and whose husband heads a large high-technology company, is presumed by many party insiders to be able to raise substantial funds, although she has little statewide experience.

To add to the strain on Wilson’s appointee, Sen. Alan Cranston’s term expires in 1992. That means the new senator will have to compete for attention with another Senate race, not to mention perhaps a dozen competitive congressional races in newly reapportioned districts and a presidential contest.

At the same time, political analysts suggested that Wilson will want to strike a careful balance, finding a candidate with enough stature to hold the seat in 1992 but not so much that he or she would overshadow Wilson as a national political figure.

“Pete’s very secure,” said one prominent GOP strategist, but “why create a rival?”

Another major constraint is ideology. Wilson said repeatedly during his campaign that he would pick someone who agreed with him on major issues, specifically abortion rights, the death penalty and offshore oil drilling.

“I’ll try to find someone who is as nearly like myself as possible,” he said in one typical comment.

Asked specifically about abortion during the campaign, Wilson said that he would find a candidate who is “ideologically compatible” with his views.

The pledge has been widely interpreted--both in California and Washington--as a guarantee that Wilson’s choice will favor a woman’s right to choose an abortion. That would rule out a large number of prominent Republicans, such as Bruce Hirschensohn, who has talked of running for the Senate again in 1992, or Marianne Bergeson, this year’s defeated Republican candidate for lieutenant governor.

“Ideological kinship is going to be very important to Wilson,” said longtime GOP strategist Kenneth Khachigian. “He felt he offered the voters some important ingredients in 1982 and 1988,” and will want to find a candidate with a similar menu, Khachigian said.

At the same time, some candidates could alienate conservatives at a time when “the Republican Party, unfortunately, is about as close to being split as we have been in a long, long time,” said Stephen Merksamer, a long-time aide to Gov. George Deukmejian.

That consideration could rule out former Senate candidate Ed Zschau, a moderate who is deeply disliked by many party conservatives.

The desire to avoid fights within the party might also lead Wilson to steer clear of members of Congress, Khachigian suggested.

Rep. David Dreier of La Verne, for example, as of Oct. 17 had $1.6 million in the bank, a cash cushion far larger than any other potential candidate and one that would give him a major leg up in preparing for a statewide race.

But picking Dreier could alienate other members of Congress who believe, or who have supporters who believe, that they deserve promotion to the Senate. Reps. Jerry Lewis of Highland, Bill Lowery of San Diego, Bill Thomas of Bakersfield and Robert K. Dornan of Garden Grove all have been mentioned as possible candidates for the post.

“There are no perfect candidates,” said one Republican official. For that reason, the source added, Wilson will face a series of trade-offs. Most important, he will have to choose between Republican candidates with proven electoral track records on the federal level, all of whom are white males, and the chance to “make a pick that is more visionary” by choosing a woman or member of a minority group.

A sizable number of Republican insiders, favoring the latter route, have been pushing Carla A. Hills, the Bush Administration’s chief trade negotiator. Hills, a California native, is prominent among GOP moderates nationally and has often been mentioned as a potential candidate for jobs ranging from university presidencies to the Supreme Court. She is also a personal friend of Wilson and campaigned for him this fall.

But Hills has not been a full-time resident of the state for years and has never run for office, two major potential drawbacks.

Some friends of Wilson also have mentioned James Watkins, Bush’s secretary of Energy and a retired Navy admiral, as a possibility. Like Hills, however, Watkins has few recent ties to his native state.