Opening of 2 Senate Seats Starts Scramble

California’s political community whipsawed from confused to chaotic Thursday with Sen. Alan Cranston’s announcement that he will retire in 1992, leaving both of the state’s powerful Senate seats without elected incumbents as they go to the voters that year.

Cranston’s decision, which accompanied his announcement that he has been diagnosed with treatable prostate cancer, set off additional maneuvering in the camps of more than a dozen potential candidates who had already been considering a run against Cranston or for the seat to be vacated by governor-elect Pete Wilson.

Wilson is expected to announce soon whom he chooses to serve out his term. But even with two years of incumbency by the next election, the appointee is not likely to be as well known as Wilson or Cranston were when they sought reelection.

The dual races will mark the first time since the state’s first elections in 1849 that both seats are open simultaneously.

And the two races will occur in a superheated political environment--in the same year as a presidential race in which California holds more electoral votes than any other state. The same election is likely to include contested races for many of the reapportioned state legislative districts.

The dual races also will spawn an extraordinary demand for money. Estimates Thursday were that each will cost at least $25 million.

“People better hold on to their wallets,” said Gov. George Deukmejian.

In the last race for the seat held by Cranston, the Democrat and his Republican opponent, then-U.S. Rep. Ed Zschau, together spent $22.8 million. The 1988 Senate race between Wilson and Lt. Gov. Leo T. McCarthy cost almost $20 million.

Wilson expressed his concern for the Democrat’s health and said his announcement would have no impact on Wilson’s selection of his own replacement. Wilson has said that he would pick someone whose views he shares.

“I’m not looking for a caretaker. I’m looking for someone who will hold the seat,” he told reporters in Van Nuys, where he met with former President Ronald Reagan.

The names of prospective candidates were many, and few were publicly ruling themselves out. The exception was current Gov. Deukmejian, who leaves public office in January after 28 years.

“I’m not interested any longer in serving in any public office,” he said.

Potential candidates Thursday were critiquing the race like oddsmakers. The Cranston seat, upon his retirement, looked immediately better than the seat soon to be vacated by Wilson, since the Cranston seat is up for a six-year term. Those running in 1992 for the Wilson seat will have to run again in 1994 so that the seats can resume their normal electoral cycle.

But the prospect of a strong candidate from either party entering the Cranston race--for example, Democrat Dianne Feinstein, who hinted at her interest this week--might make candidates take a second look at the Wilson seat.

The perceived strength of Wilson’s selection also will have to be taken into account by Democrats wanting to run for the Wilson seat.

Many Democrats had expected Cranston not to run again. Still, his announcement and Feinstein’s suggestion that she might enter the race had the effect of advancing the timetable for several potential Democratic candidates.

Out of respect for Cranston’s misfortune, many Democrats declined to publicly speculate about his successor. U.S. Rep. Robert Matsui of Sacramento, 49, a member of the House Ways and Means Committee, commiserated in what he called “a very tough time for the senator.”

But Matsui confirmed that he would run for Cranston’s seat. “In terms of my own situation, I will be running for the Senate in ‘92, for the six-year term.”

Until this week, Matsui and fellow member of Congress Barbara Boxer of Greenbrae were considered the most likely Democratic candidates for Cranston’s seat, even if he decided to seek reelection. But many Democrats said Thursday that Feinstein’s entry into the contest could shatter Boxer’s hopes.

Boxer could not be reached for comment, but her office released a statement offering her hopes for Cranston’s full recovery.

Lt. Gov. McCarthy, who Tuesday won a third term, was said to be interested in making another Senate bid.

U.S. Rep. Mel Levine, another potential candidate, said the Cranston announcement and the Wilson election “dramatically alter the political landscape in California.

“I will be consulting my friends and family and will make a decision in the near future on whether to run for the Senate,” he said.

Democratic state party Chairman and former Gov. Edmund G. Brown Jr. is also believed to be interested, but he is seen as having trouble winning. He also did not help himself by leading a much-criticized get-out-the-vote effort this week. Other Democrats mentioned as potential candidates include Gray Davis, reelected Tuesday as state controller, and Frank Wells, the president of the Disney Corp. On the Republican side, most were waiting to see who would be appointed to fill out Wilson’s term; the losers are expected to make a mad dash for the Cranston seat.

Housing and Urban Development Secretary Jack Kemp’s name was being floated by some in California, but knocked down just as quickly among Kemp intimates.

Said one long-time adviser, who spoke on condition of anonymity: “He’s quite content to not be associated with the grueling, day-to-day shaking of the cup for campaign funds.”

Kemp’s spokeswoman at HUD, Mary Brunette, said flatly that Kemp “has no plans to be appointed to a seat or run for a seat in California,” where he grew up.

Rep. David Dreier of La Verne, another Republican considered a strong candidate because of his proven fund-raising ability, had no immediate comment on the Cranston move. But a spokesman, Brad Smith, said “no decisions have been made in that regard.”

Dreier’s fellow congressman, Jerry Lewis of Redlands, is being mentioned for a possible appointment, but several Republicans suggested that Lewis would rather stay in the House, where he is third among Republicans in seniority.

Conservative television commentator Bruce Herschensohn, meanwhile, was waiting to see if he was on the short list for the Wilson appointment. He said he has not yet made up his mind whether to run for the Republican nomination for the seat now held by Cranston.

Times Sacramento bureau chief George Skelton contributed to this article.