Prop. 140 Begins Ticking for 10 Local Legislators : Initiatives: Analysts and politicians vary widely on whether the term-limitation measure will damage the political influence of the Valley.

Six years from now, a kind of political neutron bomb is scheduled to hit the San Fernando Valley.

Though most people will be untouched, 10 of the 12 state legislators who represent various parts of the Valley will find their jobs instantly wiped out.

Under Proposition 140, which voters approved Tuesday, Assembly members elected this week may serve only six more years in office. Senators elected this week may serve eight more years, but those not up for reelection on Tuesday’s ballot must also leave office in 1996.

The term-limitation initiative is likely to be the target of lawsuits, and eventually might be declared unconstitutional. But if it survives, it will force an unprecedented rearrangement of the Valley’s political landscape.

The measure in 1996 will knock out seven state Assembly members and three senators from Valley districts, including several who hold powerful committee chairmanships. Those looking for work will range from the Valley delegation’s most senior member--Senate President David A. Roberti (D-Los Angeles), first elected in 1971--to its newest, Assemblywoman-elect Paula Boland (R-Northridge).

But political analysts and politicians themselves vary widely in their opinions of whether the term-limit measure will damage the Valley’s interests in the Legislature, where the region’s delegation forms an influential bloc.

Some observers say the removal of Valley politicians from committee chairmanships will hurt the area’s ability to secure state money for transportation, education and other projects.

But others say that when Valley voters pick the legislative class of 1996, they are likely to choose politicians with the same temperament and political skills as those of the past. And in a Legislature composed mostly of newcomers, they say, the Valley’s future representatives are likely to rise to powerful jobs just as quickly as their predecessors.

“I imagine they’ll be people of the same relative quality,” state Sen. Ed Davis (R-Santa Clarita) said. “We get the politicians we deserve because they come from the citizenry.”

In any event, the initiative, if it stands up in court, will probably touch off a scramble among Valley politicians in 1996 as some try to climb up the political ladder--and others down.

For instance, some Assembly members may run for the state Senate while some senators run for Congress. On the other hand, some Assembly members may decide to run for the Los Angeles City Council. One Valley senator, Democrat Alan Robbins of Tarzana, already has expressed interest in running for the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors at some point, although he won’t have to leave his present post until 1998.

Term limits don’t apply to Congress, the Board of Supervisors or the City Council. Moreover, council members’ salaries are roughly twice those in the Assembly.

“You’ll have a lot of moving around of chessmen on the chessboard,” Republican political consultant Paul Clarke said.

At least two veteran Valley politicians might decide to retire before they are forced out. They are Davis, who turns 74 next week, and Assemblyman Tom Bane (D-Tarzana), who will be 77 next month.

Another, Assemblyman Richard Katz (D-Sylmar), is interested in running for mayor of Los Angeles in 1993.

Some observers say the elimination of Valley representatives with years of seniority and influential committee chairmanships would inevitably damage the region’s interests in the Legislature.

Several people interviewed cited Robbins as an example. Robbins is a master legislative tactician who also informally heads a caucus of Valley representatives that meets quarterly to discuss strategy on the state budget, transportation and other matters cutting across members’ districts.

Robbins, who was first elected to the Senate in 1973, also is one of six members of the powerful conference committee that each year hashes out differences between Senate and Assembly versions of the state budget.

Assemblywoman Cathie Wright, a Simi Valley Republican, said one of Robbins’ favorite parliamentary tactics is to introduce a number of seemingly innocuous bills each year that can be amended long after normal legislative deadlines have passed.

Wright said Robbins has repeatedly used the device to promote Valley-oriented legislation. In one case, she said, Robbins amended a bill involving a minor change in the state code to require that a proposed Valley extension of the Metro Rail system be placed underground through certain residential areas. The amendments were made after local residents reached a compromise on the matter, she said.

“Someone new would not know to have that piece of legislation lying there to be used,” Wright said. “It was past deadline . . . and they would have had to wait a year to introduce new legislation on it, and by then the whole thing could have fallen apart.”

Katz said that without the clout of his chairmanship of the Assembly Transportation Committee, he wouldn’t have been able to persuade the state Transportation Commission to accelerate financing for building another lane on the Simi Valley Freeway.

While the commission had planned to finance the new lane in five or six years, Katz talked them into doing it two years from now, he said.

But some analysts said that unlike power in Congress, where committee chairmen have almost absolute authority to deliver large amounts of federal dollars to their districts, power in the state Legislature is a function of energy, intelligence and the ability to strike deals with others.

Observers said that even if Katz or other current legislators lose their high-profile slots, their replacements are likely to work together to protect Valley interests and probably will themselves rise to powerful committee jobs.

“Yes, Richard has a powerful position and he does use it to the advantage of the Valley,” Clarke said. “But you’ve got more than one representative in the Legislature keeping an eye out for, quote, Valley interests, unquote, whatever they are.”

But Davis said that term limits will make it difficult for future lawmakers to pursue long-term strategies for solving particularly knotty state problems.

He cited his long struggle to pass legislation allowing citizens to petition for court review of decisions by county-based commissions which rule on cities’ attempts to incorporate or annex new land--often against the wishes of local developers.

Davis said he has pushed for the reform for six years, fighting--so far unsuccessfully--against developers and county officials.

Clarke said that unlike in the past, when well-financed incumbents easily brushed off challengers, the term-limitation initiative will result in far more open-seat races in which small hordes of little-known candidates battle one another.

Coupled with recent court decisions eliminating voter-passed limits on campaign contributions, he said, term limits are also likely to mean that money will play an even more decisive role in future races.

“If you want to put $100,000 into an Assembly race, you’ve just bought yourself an Assembly seat,” Clarke said. “If you have multiple candidates, a fair infusion of money will pull one of them above the rest.”

POSSIBLE VICTIMS OF PROPOSITION 140

Legislator Years in 1990 standing committee Office chairs or vice chairs STATE SENATE Ed Davis 10 Vice chair, Judiciary (R-Santa Clarita) Alan Robbins 17 Chair, Insurance, Claims and (D-Tarzana) Corporations David A. Roberti 19 Chair, Rules; Senate president (D-Los Angeles) pro tempore Herschel Rosenthal 16 Chair, Energy and Public Utilities (D-Los Angeles) Newton R. Russell 16 Vice chair, Banking and Commerce; (R-Glendale) vice chair, Energy and Public Utilities ASSEMBLY Tom Bane 22 Chair, Rules (D-Tarzana) Paula Boland 0* none (R-Northridge) Terry B. Friedman 4 none (D-Los Angeles) Richard Katz 10 Chair, Transportation (D-Sylmar) Burt Margolin 8 none (D-Los Angeles) Pat Nolan 12 none (R-Glendale) Cathie Wright 10 none (R-Simi Valley)

*Elected Tuesday

Source: Los Angeles County Almanac, California Green Book