NEWS ANALYSIS : Sununu’s Future as Bush’s Top Aide Being Questioned : Politics: Abrasive official reportedly has insulted important supporters. But President is loyal to his staff.

As the President for whom he works approaches his crucial third year in office, White House Chief of Staff John H. Sununu is under sharp attack and his future in the powerful position is under increasing scrutiny.

Sununu is said to enjoy the continued confidence of the President and is expected to remain as chief of staff in coming months. But some key figures close to Bush are predicting that, before the President’s expected reelection campaign reaches high gear, Bush will have found another job for his often-abrasive but loyal staff chief.

Bush is being told by longtime friends that Sununu is irritating some of the President’s most loyal supporters, shouting at them and insulting them, according to one adviser outside of the White House. And other sources said that his outbursts at mid-level staff members in the White House are squelching their initiative.

There is no unanimity, however, about whether Sununu eventually will be ousted.

Some senior Administration officials, other Republican insiders and presidential confidants pointed to Bush’s well-known loyalty to staff members and maintained that Sununu’s position is not threatened.

They said that Sununu is simply doing the dirty work of the White House and, in the words of one Administration official, taking “the swords and spears right in the chest” to protect Bush politically. They said that the President will brush aside the criticism, if not forever, then for the time being.

For now, Sununu “is secure in his position,” said one presidential adviser, speaking on condition of anonymity.

But, he added, “that is not to say the President is completely happy. George Bush has a way of dealing with things like this. As we get into the campaign--within the next year--I don’t think John’s going to be there.”

“This current situation can’t last,” said a senior White House official who was a close observer of the troubled middle years of the Ronald Reagan White House. “Who goes, I don’t know. But this reminds me of the waning days of the Don Regan administration.” Donald T. Regan was Reagan’s chief of staff in 1985 and 1986 and lost his job as Reagan moved to recover from the Iran-Contra scandal.

“There’s no question we need a change at the top,” said another senior White House official, who--like his colleagues quoted in this story--asked that his identity not be disclosed.

But Sununu has no interest in leaving, officials said. He is prepared, according to one official, “to fight to stay if necessary.”

As criticism of the chief of staff has mounted, the official said, “Sununu has been sticking to the President like a leech, making sure he gets in all the photographs so people will see he’s still at the President’s side.”

At the moment, Bush is said to recognize the need to maintain stability in the White House staff. He is also said to want to avoid making Sununu appear to be a scapegoat for the debacle over the handling of the budget negotiations with the Democratic majority and the recalcitrant Republican minority in Congress--the central issue that White House observers contend has led to the renewed focus on Sununu’s rocky tenure.

Among Sununu’s most loyal defenders is the President’s wife, Barbara Bush. As Sununu was being introduced at a political rally recently, she turned to an applauding White House staff member standing backstage and said approvingly: “You should applaud. He’s done a lot for our President.”

But Sununu’s legendary authority within the White House was reflected in the wisecrack of another White House staff member who, on hearing the anecdote, said of Mrs. Bush: “She didn’t want to lose her job.”

To some extent, Sununu’s problems go with his job.

“You want a chief of staff who will be a bit of a lightning rod who will deflect attention from the President” on particularly sensitive and politically negative issues, said Stuart E. Eizenstat, a Washington lawyer who was President Jimmy Carter’s assistant for domestic policy.

“The tough call is when so much lightning gets stored up in the rod that it creates an energy field around which people are uncomfortable.”

But that has been the case throughout Sununu’s tenure.

The chief of staff appears unperturbed by the flak--at least in public. Privately, it is said to disturb him. But his familiarity with Bush allows him a clear understanding of the President’s own thoughts about such criticism.

The 51-year-old Sununu, who sees Bush throughout the day, was the governor of New Hampshire in 1988, when Bush’s presidential campaign was floundering after a poor showing in the Iowa Republican caucuses. Sununu oversaw the resurrection of the campaign during the New Hampshire primary race and became a member of the President’s inner circle.

Of those who see Bush daily, only Sununu and a few others--most notably National Security Adviser Brent Scowcroft--are seen trading jokes and engaging in good-natured teasing with the boss. Still, this good-old-boy intimacy has not protected Sununu from what one Republican insider has described as a “blistering” attack now and then from the President.

“Bush was furious with Sununu three or four times this fall,” as a result of the budget problems, this source said, referring to a particularly awkward few days when the President appeared to be reversing his positions on budget proposals at every turn.

With Sununu apparently remaining in place, at least for the time being, it is thought likely that his power might be diluted if two longtime Bush advisers--Secretary of State James A. Baker III and pollster Bob Teeter--pick up the pace of their informal political advice to the President. Some Bush supporters hope that Teeter will be given a more formal role as the Bush White House prepares for the 1992 election.

At the least, some officials have suggested, Sununu could use some help, particularly with members of the White House staff responsible for communicating the President’s policies and goals to the public.

“I don’t think it solves anything to just lop his head off. He can do the job if he has the right people to help,” Eizenstat said.

“He is terribly bright--really, brilliant is not too strong a word--and people who are brilliant tend to think they can do any job better than anyone else,” Eizenstat said. He faulted Sununu for trying to be Bush’s chief economics adviser, domestic policy adviser and political adviser rolled into one. He compared Sununu’s single-handed effort to the sharing of chores in the White House by the troika of Baker, Michael K. Deaver and Edwin Meese III during Reagan’s first term.

“Some refinements are in order,” said Mitchell Daniels, who was a White House political director during the Reagan Administration. But, he said, “the last thing I’d do is get rid of John Sununu.”

Bush needs to make changes, one longtime adviser said, but they need not “be done in a single night of long knives. He needs to do some planning for a transition. If he doesn’t make a decision and tries to patch together what he’s got now, there’s no doubt in my mind he’ll face real, real problems.”

Baker and another longtime Bush confidant, Commerce Secretary Robert A. Mosbacher, “are very cognizant (of) the problems at the White House,” according to yet another Bush adviser, who said that Baker is also concerned about the overall quality of the White House staff.

Shortly after Bush named Sununu chief of staff two years ago, the former governor was quoted as saying that there were plenty of people who would be glad to work for the White House for $25,000 or $30,000 a year.

When Baker recently was reminded of Sununu’s comment, he reportedly said: “Well, that’s what he’s got--a $25,000 staff.”

The complaints about Sununu, although not new, have reached a crescendo in the weeks since the angry negotiations over the budget.

Said one adviser who meets privately with Bush from time to time: “I hear rumbles from the rest of the staff about what happened during the budget summit. A lot of people felt he was throwing his weight around too much and flaring up too much.”

The result, he said, has been to make particularly gun-shy the mid-level members of a White House staff, not known for being a collection of independent political heavyweights. Sununu’s tactics, he added, stifle both new ideas and suggestions that a particular course advocated by the chief of staff might be flawed.

Some officials talked of “an uneasy feeling” permeating the White House staff and said that Sununu has so intimidated most staff members that they never challenge his ideas or offer ideas of their own. He tolerates no opposition, prides himself on running a tight ship and issues stern warnings at staff meetings if he detects a news leak from the White House that he has not approved, these officials said.

“He has a White House staff that is beginning to speak up, but not to him . . . and is only responding to tirades,” said one Republican political consultant. The consultant added: “I’m not sure John understands there is a problem. He’s an angry man who’s striking out at everybody and everything.”