THE PRESIDENCY : Scholars’ Advice to Bush: Be Bold, Be Firm and Be Lucky

As George Bush nears the midpoint of his presidential term, history offers him some helpful hints on facing the next two years, according to scholars gathered here for a conference on research into the presidency.

Here are the salient do’s and don’ts based on the successes and failures of Bush’s predecessors at the same point in their Oval Office tenures:

--Do act boldly, several scholars interviewed said, citing Richard M. Nixon’s decision to blaze a new diplomatic trail to China in 1971.

--Do stick to your guns, others recommended, recalling Ronald Reagan’s insistence on “staying the course” on economic policy in 1983, despite the ravages of one of the worst recessions since the Great Depression.

--If things turn bad, “don’t wear your troubles on your sleeve,” as Jimmy Carter did when he declared the nation to be suffering from a “crisis of confidence” during the 1979 energy shortage, said Erwin Hargrove of Vanderbilt University.

“And, above all else, pray for good luck,” said the University of Pittsburgh’s Burt Rockman, who organized the conference, which concludes today.

On the face of it, Bush would seem to be in need of all the advice and good fortune he can get. He and his party took a pounding in last week’s election, and he must find ways to deal with the economic slump at home and the Persian Gulf crisis abroad.

Moreover, the third year of a presidency, which Bush will soon be entering, is a fateful period in the life spans of chief executives. “He needs to demonstrate leadership not only to the public but to potential rivals who are sizing him up, trying to decide whether to run against him,” said Tom Cronin of Stanford University.

Scholars pointed out that both Nixon and Reagan had been damaged by the midterm elections in their first terms and yet bounced back to win reelection by landslides. In addition to his diplomatic breakthrough to China, Nixon helped solve economic problems temporarily by imposing wage and price controls. In 1983, Reagan boosted his prestige, which had been hurt by the ill-fated U.S. “peace-keeping mission” to Lebanon, by ordering the swift and successful invasion of Grenada.

Citing Bush’s vacillation on the budget and Persian Gulf crises, Marie-France Toinet, a specialist in U.S. politics at Paris’ Fondation Nationale des Science Politiques, said: “We hear hard talk from him one day and soft talk the next day. He lacks Reagan’s sixth sense of the balance of power.”

But Charles O. Jones of the University of Wisconsin said such comparisons with Reagan are in part unfair to Bush because they overlook Bush’s own potential assets for leadership. “Bush is more moderate than Reagan, and he tends to consult more with others in government,” Jones said.

“Bush brings to the presidency a great deal of flexibility and suppleness of mind,” said Princeton University’s Fred Greenstein. The 41st President’s relatively relaxed approach to problems--”Don’t worry, I’ll take care of it,” as Stephen Wayne of Georgetown University described it--may help him steer clear of the pitfalls that befell Carter, who seemed almost obsessed with such problems as the energy crisis and the hostage crisis in Tehran.

Similarly, Bush’s flexibility may help him avoid in the Persian Gulf the mistake that Lyndon B. Johnson made of sinking ever deeper into the quagmire of Vietnam. So far, Larry Berman of UC Davis credits Bush with being more successful in the gulf than Johnson was in Vietnam, with “bringing the allies in and making it more than just a U.S. effort.”

Yet, in the end, many here questioned whether even avoiding the blunders of the past will make Bush a successful President unless he can provide the public with a more compelling message about his leadership.

“Bush’s great skill is patching solutions together,” said John Kessel of Ohio State University. “What he doesn’t have is a grand design.”