Clouds and Fog Curtail Allied Air Operations

An Air Force squadron sent to attack Iraq’s Republican Guard over the weekend returned to its base with a full payload of bombs because heavy clouds had rendered its target invisible.

Intelligence officers say the intensive hunt for Iraqi President Saddam Hussein’s mobile Scud launchers has been hampered by fog, which makes it harder for American pilots to spot the truck-mounted launchers as they scuttle away after firing.

And, said Maj. Tim Rush, an F-16A pilot from Columbia, S.C., “We haven’t taken out (Iraq’s air defense systems) yet due to the weather. I think personally it will take days to weeks.”

Weather--chiefly in the form of clouds and fog--has suddenly become a significant nemesis in the 5-day-old U.S. and allied war against Iraq. Clouds and fog over Iraq, not unusual during the desert winter, are hampering efforts to identify and destroy Iraqi targets and to assess damage, Pentagon officials say.

“We’ve had weather problems,” Lt. Gen. Thomas W. Kelly, head of operations for the Joint Chiefs of Staff, acknowledged Monday. “Honest to goodness, we’re having problems with it.”

Kelly refused to disclose how seriously the weather has affected the allied air attack. But military sources say that the clouds and fog make it most difficult to hit key targets that require great precision: mobile Scud missiles, Iraqi aircraft protected in hardened shelters and military equipment and facilities in residential neighborhoods.

“The rate of damage on the most critical targets is reduced by 50% to 75% when there’s weather,” said an experienced former combat pilot who helped develop some of the planes being used in Operation Desert Storm. “All of those are very difficult to hit in bad weather.”

Unlike Vietnam, where inclement weather often grounded U.S. pilots for days at a time, allied planes are using new technology to bomb Iraq around-the-clock, even when targets are covered in clouds. Tornados, F-111s, F-15s, F-16s, F-18s and A-6s all operate with radar and inertial navigation systems that enable them to fly at night and under any conditions.

But, despite such enormous technological advances in recent years, weather remains a key factor in conducting the gulf air war, affecting the selection of targets, the ability to make damage assessments and the safety of pilots.

Military experts say that clouds can force pilots to fly dangerously low over targets, rendering them more vulnerable to anti-aircraft fire or accidents. Low visibility also makes massive coordinated air attacks far more treacherous, analysts say.

In addition, rain can limit the effectiveness of lasers and infrared sighting devices by interfering with the transmission of infrared energy through the atmosphere. Assessing the impact of bombing missions has been a particular problem as cloud embankments restrict satellite and aerial photography, Pentagon officials say.

“You want to take out the air defenses before you move on to other targets,” said Loren Thompson, deputy director of National Security Studies at Georgetown University. “But before you can verify that those air defenses are out, it would be dangerous to move on to the next target.”

Continued inclement conditions will stretch out the duration of the air conflict, experts say.

“It’s a serious problem in terms of overhead access,” Georgetown’s Thompson said. “It will definitely slow down the campaign and make it longer.”

That is already evident. A senior Kuwaiti air force commander said allied combat missions have been reduced 25% since Friday by bad weather. And, for the same reason, French bombing missions were scrubbed Monday for the second day in a row.

Operation Desert Storm has grounded planes that have difficulty with clouds when such weather conditions prevail, Pentagon spokesman Pete Williams said Monday.

Intelligence officers note that it may have been no coincidence that Iraq choose a foggy night to launch the biggest missile attack of the war on Dhahran and Riyadh.

Once a Scud is launched, its radar emits a signal that can be picked up by AWACS intelligence-gathering planes and relayed to attack aircraft. But in bad weather the gunners have a better chance of moving their launchers after firing and avoiding the searching planes.

“It’s hard enough to find (a mobile Scud launcher) on a blue-sky day,” said Benjamin Lambeth, a senior staff member at RAND Corp. who specializes in tactical air deployment. “Otherwise, it’s virtually impossible. . . . You’ve got to be able to see it to identify it.”

Nine of the Scuds fired Sunday night and Monday morning were intercepted and destroyed by U.S. Patriot missiles. A tenth fell harmlessly into the Persian Gulf.

The weather plays such an important role in determining the timing of combat operations that Saudi Arabia and Bahrain have classified their forecasts and no longer release them to the public. Local newspapers carry temperatures and weather conditions from Afghanistan to Zimbabwe but ignore the home front.

“Weather is too important these days for military and other reasons, that is why we are limiting our broadcasts,” said an official at the Meteorological Environmental Protection Administration office in Jidda. Callers phoning the weather line in Bahrain over the weekend heard a recording of “Home on the Range.”

But forecasts for the region are widely available outside of the gulf. U.S. meteorologists predicted partly sunny conditions in western Iraq today with a chance of showers over the eastern part of the country. The weather is expected to improve further on Wednesday. Said Lt. Gen. Kelly, “We expect it to clear up pretty soon.”

But the rainy season only began in November, and the wettest months for Iraq and Kuwait are just ahead, in February and March.

Defense Secretary Dick Cheney, asked in a television interview Monday if the weather had disrupted allied air operations, replied: “They’ve slowed down a little bit. . . . But to say they’ve been disrupted is a little strong.”

Despite ultrasophisticated technology that enables pilots to fight at night and fire laser-guided projectiles with pinpoint accuracy, much of a flier’s job still depends on eye contact and punching his way through clouds to find missile sites and other targets of opportunity. Pilots of planes such as Britain’s Tornado fighter-bombers also traditionally release their bombs from a low level.

“The weather is going to be a factor,” said RAND’s Lambeth. “When the weather improves the (mission) rate will increase and the (missions’) success will increase. This is a case where, I think, patience has its rewards.”

David Lamb reported from Saudi Arabia and Alan C. Miller reported from Washington.