The Have-Nots of Water World Begin to Stir

Most of us come equipped with a finite amount of human attention, and when the bombs start to fall we relegate other matters to the background. But for the record, let me point out that January is almost gone and the rains still have not come to California.

Slowly, a nightmare scenario is becoming possible. It’s this: When the supplies of available water begin to sink to all-time lows this summer, we may see the outbreak of a snatching-and-grabbing war between different parts of the state. The losers will see their economic futures imperiled. The winners will grow fat.

To understand why this war is looming, just picture a pie chart divided into six neat slices. Color five of those pie slices green.

Then color the last slice blue.

The five green slices represent the share of California’s water that goes to the farmers. The single blue slice represents the share that goes to all the cities.

This division has prevailed for generations and nobody ever squawked because there was enough for everyone. But, alas, no more. The Have-Nots of the water world are looking jealously at the riches controlled by the Haves.

Here are a few of the new realities driving this revolt:

* California’s cities now churn out $700 billion a year in goods and services, as opposed to the $15 billion per year produced by agriculture. Why, the city fathers are asking, should they stay content with one slice of the pie?

* Some of agriculture’s traditional practices look like economic nonsense in an age of severe drought. Some alfalfa farmers, for example, still practice flood irrigation, using huge quantities of water while city folks ration their showers.

* Price disparities between city and farm are absurd. Some farmers pay $3.50 an acre-foot for water when Southern California cities pay $230 per acre-foot.

Already, we may have seen the first signs of an active revolt. Last month, the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California quietly demanded a change in the rules for allocating deliveries from the huge State Water Project.

The MWD noted that Southern California cities--which it represents--paid 65% of the cost of the Water Project, $21 billion in all.

These payments entitled the cities to a proportional amount of the project’s water, but the MWD points out they have never received it. Over the years the real figure has been more like 30%.

That was OK back in the old days when Southern California had other sources it could tap. But now, the MWD wants all the water to which it is legally entitled.

If the MWD succeeds in its demands, the losers will be the farmers of the San Joaquin Valley. They were the recipients of the “extra” water and some have grown extraordinarily wealthy from its benefits.

Will these farmers be willing losers?

No.

Will they lose anyway?

Yes.

They will lose because the balance of power has changed in California over the last decade. The old-time political grease of the farmers, once legendary, has shrunk from its glory days and no longer rules the cloakrooms of Sacramento and Washington. The cities and their industries now have the votes, the money and the power.

And they will lose for another reason: As the struggle continues, some of the agricultural practices will be revealed in all their absurdity.

Like the rice farmers of the Sacramento Delta who use four times as much water as the entire Bay Area to produce a crop that is officially classified as surplus.

If you’re curious about possible targets in this war, you might keep an eye on the Central Valley Project, the mammoth system operated by the federal government. In a normal year, the CVP delivers twice as much water to its San Joaquin customers as the State Water Project.

Thus far, the CVP’s supplies have remained beyond the cities’ reach because of federal regulations. But Congress can change those regulations. And if Congress is forced by the drought to choose between people and broccoli, it is unlikely to choose broccoli.

We are not talking here about a wholesale switch in allocations. A 10% shift would probably satisfy the cities, giving them enough to survive in the hardest times.

But it won’t come easy. This water war will be different from the past when the water establishment largely struggled against environmentalists. This time the establishment will be at war with itself. Expect this war to be long and expect it to be dirty.

And you can be sure that it will happen. The only thing that can stop it is rain. And then more rain.