Bates Ponders a Political Comeback

Probably no one has kept a closer--and possibly more envious--eye on the rapid congressional celebrity achieved by new Rep. Randall (Duke) Cunningham than the man whom he unseated last November, former Rep. Jim Bates.

Six weeks into a forced political retirement, Bates finds himself at a personal and professional crossroads, with a new career that has him dividing time between here and San Diego even as he contemplates a possible comeback bid for his old job.

Following a career path popular among defeated or retired congressman, Bates has become a government consultant, representing several high-tech and recycling companies. The thrust of his current lobbying efforts, Bates explained, is aimed at tightening federal environmental regulations governing underground gasoline storage and recycling.

“When you’re strengthening rules, you’re kind of on the side of the angels,” said Bates, who had a strong environmental record during his four-term career. “I’m a little nervous about who my clients are and what they want me to do. I want to make sure it’s right up the alley of what I used to do. If I run again, I don’t want to have to be defensive or justify anything to anybody.”

As that remark suggests, the 49-year-old Democrat already is weighing the prospects of a 1992 campaign to try to regain his former 44th District seat or win a new one that could be created in San Diego by reapportionment. With San Diego County’s population having increased by nearly 600,000 to 2.5 million during the 1980s, the county’s four-seat congressional delegation could grow by one before the 1992 elections.

Bates said that he will not decide whether to mount a 1992 campaign until he sees how the local congressional districts are realigned and takes a poll this spring. If his former southern San Diego district, where Democrats currently hold a 3-to-2 edge among registered voters, 53%-35%, remains essentially unchanged, Bates said that he likely would try to revenge his loss against Cunningham rather than run in another district.

“I wouldn’t mind returning the favor,” Bates said, chuckling at the thought of a rematch with a different outcome. “I think Cunningham’s still very vulnerable. If I ran again, I think I could beat him. I think more people would remember me than know him.”

If he does run, however, Bates probably would face opposition in a Democratic primary, given that other Democrats viewed his narrow loss last November as an opening for their own congressional aspirations. Possible candidates whose names have been mentioned include San Diego City Councilmen Bob Filner and Wes Pratt, state Assemblyman Steve Peace and lawyer Byron Georgiou, who lost to Bates in last year’s 44th District Democratic primary--a challenge that some top Democrats believe weakened Bates for the November general election.

Grudgingly acknowledging that Cunningham has drawn “more than the usual” publicity for a freshman congressman, Bates was quick to note in an interview that “all the attention hasn’t been favorable”--a reference to the controversy produced when Cunningham claimed that major terrorists are operating in San Diego, comments later disputed by the FBI.

“I’m not worried about him getting attention, because the more people hear about him, the more they’ll wonder whether that’s who they want in Congress,” Bates said. “This time, he could just attack me and had no record to defend. That wouldn’t be the case next time.”

Before leaving office, Bates described his 46%-45% loss to Cunningham as “the No. 1 disappointment in my life.” Although he conceded that the “stigma of the loss remains,” Bates said that the passage of time has helped him to put the setback in perspective.

“The pain has gone, the wound has healed,” Bates said. “But the competitive urge still is there--in fact, it’s a little stronger. What you have to measure that against is some of the positive things that have come out of this--being able to spend more time with my family, living at a less frantic pace. That makes you more aware of what you’d be giving up if you went back (into politics) again.”

Still, if the polls and the district lines are favorable, “it would be pretty tempting,” Bates said.

“At that point, I’d want to check back with some people who have been encouraging me to run,” he added. “I want to see where they’re going to be when it’s time to put the money on the table.”