Leader Says Districting Bid May Backfire on Latinos : Oxnard: Councilman Manuel Lopez now believes that better representation may occur through at-large elections.

Five months ago, a group of Latino leaders sued the city of Oxnard to force the formation of councilmanic districts, which they believed would lead to better minority representation.

But now that new census figures show that more than half of Oxnard’s population is Latino, Councilman Manuel Lopez, Oxnard’s top elected Latino leader and a longtime advocate of districting, is having second thoughts.

“Given the new data, there’s not much pressure to go to districts anymore,” he said. “The changes in the city’s political leadership are going to happen anyway.”

Lopez said now that Latinos are on the verge of reaching leadership positions through at-large elections, the strategy of forcing districtwide races may backfire.

“The city of Santa Barbara, for example, was run by Mexican-Americans until 1870, when an Anglo minority forced the city into district elections, and that’s how they seized the power,” he said.

Lopez said that in the past four years, the percentage of registered Latino voters in Oxnard has risen from about 25% to more than 30%. He added that both the overall percentage of Latino voters and the percentage of registered Latino voters who participate in elections will continue to rise dramatically.

“There are a lot of young people in this city, and Latino homes usually have a lot of children,” Lopez said. “As soon as these children come of age, I think we’re going to see some dramatic changes even without districts.”

Andres Herrera, an Oxnard-based Latino activist and political consultant, is also concerned that district elections may end up diluting the Latino vote.

“That’s the thing about districting,” he said. “It can be a two-way sword. If all the Latinos are concentrated in one area, district elections may end up hurting us.”

But other Latino leaders, including the plaintiffs in the districting lawsuit, disagree.

“I’ve always said that the Hispanic community has been largely overlooked because the people that have control over local politics want it that way,” said John Soria, an unsuccessful candidate for mayor in 1990 and a plaintiff in the districting suit.

“We want a truer democratic system whether it helps one ethnic group or another.”

Soria’s lawyer, Gerhard W. Orthuber of Oxnard, said he is waiting for the census tract figures due out next week to start drawing district lines along ethnic and socioeconomic boundaries.

Once that is completed, the council will vote on whether to place the district election initiative on the next ballot or fight the lawsuit in court.

Lopez says the financially strapped city should avoid an expensive, protracted legal battle. “I don’t think the city can afford to fight the districting initiative, and I’m not sure the city can win,” he said.

In recent years, Lopez pointed out, several California cities with large Latino populations have been forced to give up their at-large election systems or redraw their districts to facilitate more minority representation.

Three years ago, a federal court decision forced Watsonville in Central California to switch to district elections to increase minority representation.

In Texas, about 100 cities have been forced or have agreed in recent years to make the same transition because of lawsuits brought under the federal Voting Rights Act.

The Watsonville decision by thS. 9th Circuit Court of Appeals brought the Texas rules into California and nine other Western states covered by the federal court.

A survey conducted for the plaintiffs in the Watsonville case showed that Oxnard was among 74 cities that may be forced to change their election methods.

Each of the cities, the survey shows, has an at-large electoral system and large Latino populations with little or no representation on city councils or other governing bodies. Census figures released this week show that Oxnard Latinos now account for 54% of the city’s total population, up from 46% a decade ago.

But despite their growing numbers, Oxnard Latinos remain under-represented, partly because of their low voter turnout in city elections. Lopez is the only Latino on the council.