No Mistake, Ismail’s the One : NFL draft: First-round errors are expected, as are some pleasant surprises. Notre Dame running back might be the only sure thing.

The one sure thing about the NFL draft each year is that there are few sure things.

Invariably, the 28 pro clubs, after spending a collective $12 million or so on personnel research, take a number of wrong turns, underrating many college prospects, overrating others.

“Historically in this league, the first round has been filled with mistakes,” Tom Flores, president of the Seattle Seahawks, said the other day.

And so Flores and his counterparts are prepared to be surprised today when the NFL’s 56th annual draft begins at 9.a.m. PDT.

They hope to get through at least five rounds before sundown. It will be on ESPN until 3:30 p.m.; no round can begin after 6 p.m. The last six or seven of the scheduled 12 rounds are planned for Monday.

“This isn’t a perfect science,” said Harry Hulmes, assistant general manager of the New York Giants. “The coaches will be shocked by some of their draft choices next summer--as they always are. The kids will have more on the ball than expected--or less. They always do.”

Other surprises are possible today:

--Will the Dallas Cowboys, who got the top pick in a trade, outbid the Canadian Football League’s Toronto Argonauts for Notre Dame star Raghib (Rocket) Ismail--or will they trade the pick to the Atlanta Falcons?

--In a league that has a shortage of quality quarterbacks, who will take a chance on USC’s Todd Marinovich, and in what round?

--Who will take a chance on the gifted, no-college defensive end, Eric Swann, and in what round?

--Of the 10 or 12 most widely discussed prospects, UCLA safety Eric Turner and San Diego State quarterback Dan McGwire among them, who will emerge in the day’s top five?

“Call this the head-scratching draft,” Flores said. “Nobody quite knows what to do.”

Lone Star: The only potential NFL superstar on the 1991 board, in the view of most clubs, is Ismail, whose rights went to the Cowboys Friday when Dallas gave the New England Patriots first- and second-round picks plus “other considerations.”

Argonaut owner Bruce McNall could still sign him before the draft, afterward, or not at all.

The Patriots made the trade because, despite his versatile talent, he isn’t perceived to be an every-down player.

The Cowboys have two other choices in the first round.

Big Nine: The NFL’s class of 1991 was undermined, according to most pro coaches, by what happened 12 months ago, when nine college juniors, coming out prematurely, made the class of 1990 one of the NFL’s finest.

“The juniors were better than most seniors last year,” said a scout for the Kansas City Chiefs, Ron Waller, who listed Jeff George, Junior Seau, Mark Carrier, Rodney Hampton, Emmitt Smith, Keith McCants, Lamar Lathon, Andre Ware and supplemental draftee Rob Moore.

If available now, most would be picked ahead of everybody today except Ismail.

“They’d have made this year’s (class) one for the books,” Waller said, noting that there’s less quality on the new list of 33 underclassmen except for Ismail and Marinovich.

In NFL personnel rooms during the week, there wasn’t even a rough consensus on the top several players.

“I’ve talked to most clubs,” said Lide Huggins, the Denver Broncos’ director of football operations. “They pretty much agree on the best 10 or 12 players, but not the best five, and certainly not the top two.”

Said Newport Beach lawyer-agent Leigh Steinberg: “I don’t see any standouts. It’s like Oscar-voting with no ‘Dances with Wolves.’ ”

Huggins sees, if no standouts, a breadth of first-round talent.

“Every year in the draft, talent is in the eye of the beholder,” he said. “I’m confident that the best eight or 10 picks in the first round will turn out to be as good as last year’s.”

Receiver Week: College football’s emphasis on passing in recent seasons will be reflected early and often today and Monday.

Among the NFL-quality players available, more line up at wide receiver than any other position.

“This isn’t a great draft except at catcher,” said Dick Steinberg, general manager of the New York Jets, noting that at least 10 of the top 50 prospects are wide receivers.

Among them are Alvin Harper of Tennessee, Mike Pritchard of Colorado, Herman Moore of Virginia and Ismail in the top 10 plus five top-50 Southland candidates--Gary Wellman of USC, Scott Miller and Reggie Moore of UCLA, Dennis Arey of San Diego State and Sean Foster of Cal State Long Beach.

“There are so many good ones that clubs needing wide receivers may draft other people in the first couple of rounds,” the Giants’ Hulmes said. “They’re sure they’ll get blue-chip receivers down the line.”

Five Passers: The NFL consensus is that this is a draft with five good passers who might not prove to be championship quarterbacks.

They are Brett Favre of Southern Mississippi, who at 6 feet 2 inches might not be tall enough; McGwire, who at 6-8 might be too tall; Browning Nagle of Louisville, who might not be mobile enough; Marinovich, who might be too immature, and Craig Erickson of Miami, who might be the best of all if not facing a year off because of a knee injury.

Hulmes, on Marinovich: “He definitely needed four college seasons. He has too much to learn.”

Hulmes, on Marinovich’s off-the-field behavior: “Nobody has told us not to pick him. He isn’t on any restricted list.”

One Runner: The colleges have graduated few great running backs into pro ball lately. And this year’s group is typical.

Unless there are some exceptionally talented overachievers out there--players such as Buffalo’s 1988 second-round choice, Thurman Thomas--the only good bet is Iowa’s fast 250-pounder, Nick Bell, who announced this week that he is a tailback, not a fullback. And Ram Coach John Robinson agrees.

“Bell is a great specimen physically whose (dash) times are very impressive,” Robinson said. “I see him not as a fullback but as a guy with the ball.

“The only thing he hasn’t proved is that he can carry it 30 times a game, week in and out, like O.J. Simpson or Thurman Thomas.”

Another back getting some first-round attention from the scouts is Fresno State’s 216-pound Aaron Craver.

From Denver, Huggins said: “The offensive line starts with the USC kid, Pat Harlow, and that pair from Tennessee, (Antone Davis, who can play both tackle and guard, and tackle Charles McRae.)”

Assuredly Untested: The most intriguing prospect on the board, except for Ismail, is the defensive end who has never sat in a college classroom, Eric Swann, the pride of Hartnett High in Lillington, N.C., where he graduated 24 months ago.

The pros caught up with him last season on a minor league team in the Northeast, the Bay City Titans, after Swann had several times failed the entrance exams at North Carolina State.

“He’s a bright kid, just a poor test-taker,” said Joel Buchsbaum of Pro Football Weekly.

NFL personnel people are reluctant to talk about him, but, reportedly, most have placed Swann in their top 10 or 12 because of his size, 300-plus pounds, and 40-yard dash speed, about 5.0 seconds.

Entering a mild dissent, Jerry Jones, a Cincinnati draft analyst, said: “Swann only averaged a sack a game in a minor league.”

Traditionally, NFL coaches are loath to make early gambles on skilled but unconventional prospects unless they own multiple first-round choices.

“(Swann) is all potential, without much polish,” Flores said. “That kind, you pass unless you have more than one (first-round) pick.”

The Cowboys, with three, and the Atlanta Falcons, with two, are the teams with multiple first-round picks this year. After trading away Herschel Walker and Steve Walsh, the Cowboys started with the 11th, 12th and 14th choices but sent No. 11 to New England as part of the package to obtain No. 1 and the chance to draft Ismail.

Stung by holdouts last season, the Cowboys had planned to sign all three of their first-round choices before drafting them today. But Commissioner Paul Tagliabue said he wouldn’t allow it.

The only available defensive lineman in Swann’s class is Russell Maryland of Miami, who will probably be drafted ahead of him.

The top-ranked defensive players are a cornerback, Todd Lyght of Notre Dame, and linebackers Mike Croel of Nebraska and Alfred Williams of Colorado.

The Locals: UCLA, which has recruited impressively during the Terry Donahue era, is expected to provide the Southland’s top pick, safety Turner.

USC offensive tackle Harlow could also go in the top 20.

Ranking next are UCLA linebacker Roman Phifer and USC running back Ricky Ervins.

Other Bruins on the NFL’s draft boards: wide receivers Miller and Moore, tight ends Randy Austin and Corwin Anthony, linebacker Rocen Keeton, center Lance Zeno and tailback Brian Brown.

The other Trojans: guard Mark Tucker, wide receiver Wellman, safety Marcus Hopkins, tight end Frank Griffin, linebackers Scott Ross and Craig Hartsuyker, defensive tackles Don Gibson and Gene Fruge, and quarterbacks Shane Foley and Marinovich.

Albert Fann of Cal State Northridge ranks among the nation’s top 20 fullbacks.

Cal State Long Beach has wide receiver Foster and linebacker Pepper Jenkins. From Cal State Fullerton there is wide receiver J.J. Celestine, and from Occidental offensive tackle Pete Tucker.

From San Diego State, the prospects are center Nick Subis, safety Clark Moses, defensive tackle Pio Sagapoletele, wide receiver Arey and quarterback McGwire.

NFL Notes

The clubs will each get 15 minutes in the first round, 10 minutes in the second and five minutes in other rounds. . . . The New York Jets used their No. 1 choice earlier in the supplemental draft for wide receiver Rob Moore. . . . In the last round Monday, the last player drafted by the last team, the New York Giants, will be honored June 23-30 during Paul Salata’s Irrelevant Week celebration in Newport Beach.

The first round a year ago lasted 3 hours 24 minutes, the second 2:34. The first day’s activity ended at 7:07 p.m. PST. . . . The 1991 exhibition season will open in July with “a salute to the past and a look at the future,” Commissioner Paul Tagliabue said, identifying the Hall of Fame game matching the Miami Dolphins and the Detroit Lions July 27 at Canton, Ohio, and three overseas American Bowl games--Buffalo Bills vs. Philadelphia Eagles in London July 28, Chicago Bears vs. San Francisco 49ers in Berlin Aug.3 and the Raiders vs. Miami Dolphins in Tokyo Aug. 4.

FIRST PICKS A look at the first selections in the past 10 NFL drafts:

Year Player Pos. Team 1990 Jeff George QB Indianapolis 1989 Troy Aikman QB Dallas 1988 Aundray Bruce LB Atlanta 1987 Vinny Testaverde QB Tampa Bay 1986 Bo Jackson RB Tampa Bay 1985 Bruce Smith DE Buffalo 1984 Irving Fryar WR New England 1983 John Elway QB Denver 1982 Kenneth Sims DT New England 1981 George Rogers RB New Orleans