POLITICAL BRIEFING

A GOP-LED SENATE? For the first time since 1980, some political analysts believe the GOP has a chance to regain control of the Senate next year. Some of the Republicans’ best chances appear to lie in the South, where four Democratic incumbents face problems.

Sens. Terry Sanford of North Carolina, Wyche Fowler Jr. of Georgia, Richard C. Shelby of Alabama and John B. Breaux of Louisiana were elected in 1986 by 53% of the vote or less. Democratic strategists figure that none of the four would have won if the elections had taken place in 1988, as George Bush stormed the South on his way to the White House. The Democrats fear that Bush will run strongly in the region again next year and Republican senatorial challengers will get crucial coattail help.

First-termers Sanford and Fowler, as well as veteran Sen. Ernest F. Hollings (D-S.C.), also appear to be in jeopardy because of their having voted against authorizing war in the Persian Gulf. “To the extent the war is an issue, it is more of an issue in the South than anywhere else,” one Democratic consultant said.

Republicans may have trouble capitalizing on opportunities in the South, however. Among the potentially strong challengers who have turned down pleas that they run for Senate are Govs. James G. Martin of North Carolina and Carroll A. Campbell Jr. of South Carolina.

MIDDLE MAN: Scouts for Virginia Gov. L. Douglas Wilder’s prospective presidential candidacy found the Democratic activists they surveyed in Iowa and New Hampshire to be intensely pragmatic. Surprisingly enough, they think this attitude will gain support in these two important states for Wilder, who is the nation’s first elected black governor.

Political pros in both these early primary battlegrounds do not minimize the problems Wilder’s race would create if he were to be the Democratic nominee. But for the short term they see Wilder, who stresses mainstream themes such as fiscal responsibility and a hard line on crime, as an instrument for moving the party toward the middle of the road--the surest route to the White House.

Wilder’s race gives him special credibility in making such centrist arguments, one of the governor’s advance agents said. “The practical value of Wilder’s candidacy is his ability to safely challenge not just Jesse Jackson, but also the interest groups that usually dominate the nominating process,” he said.

UNEXPECTED TURN: Louisiana’s volatile gubernatorial campaign grows spicier by the day. Tonight, two-term Rep. Clyde C. Holloway is scheduled to announce his candidacy for the GOP nomination--a move that will embarrass the national Republican Party and complicate what may be the most closely watched election of the year.

The entrance of Holloway--who represents a central Louisiana district expected to be wiped out by reapportionment--could create problems for Gov. Buddy Roemer, who recently switched his party affiliation to Republican. National Republicans welcomed Roemer as a symbol of realignment and hoped to ensure him a clear road to the GOP nomination, but now the governor could be caught in a squeeze between Holloway and state Rep. David Duke, a former Ku Klux Klan leader. Former Gov. Edwin W. Edwards is the leading Democratic challenger.

In Louisiana’s unusual open primary, contenders from both parties compete in a single primary; if the top finisher receives more than 50% of the vote there is no run-off. If no one receives a majority, the top two finishers face off in November.