Advertisement

Health Officials Lower Projections of HIV Cases

Share

State health officials Thursday released new projections of the number of AIDS cases that will occur over the next two years in California. They also conceded that earlier projections of the number of people infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, which causes AIDS, were too high.

By 1993, they project the number of AIDS cases will more than double to 69,000. Most regions of the state can expect a “gradual increase” according to Jim Singleton, research program specialist in the health department’s AIDS office. In Los Angeles County, he said the increase may be slightly slower.

At the end of March, the Centers for Disease Control reported 32,542 AIDS cases in California.

Advertisement

State officials had earlier projected that by the beginning of last year, 300,000 Californians would be infected with HIV. However, those estimates are now being revised downward to 146,000, according to Singleton. He said the earlier projections were based on “simple, crude extrapolation” from nationwide figures from the Centers for Disease Control, that were themselves too high.

The new figures, Singleton said, are based on better data.

Advertisement