An Expert Prognosticator Says the Pal Will Be Best

EDITOR’S NOTE: AP national sports columnist Jim Litke is 3-for-3 in a way on the Kentucky Derby -- he’s failed to pick the winner every time. In 1988 and 1989, he picked the favorite and both times his picks finished second; last year, he favored fourth-pick Silver Ending, who finished one place farther back. So much for his favorites, but not for his attempts at handicapping.

He was born of decidely un-regal bloodlines in the wrong place, drew the wrong post position and, perhaps worst of all, is being touted by the wrong person.

But Best Pal will win the Kentucky Derby.

He was born in California, which has produced only three previous champions, the last in 1962. He was gelded as a yearling, and only seven thoroughbreds have come back from the unkindest cut of all to wear the blanket of roses, the last in 1929. He drew the No. 15 position in the starting gate, and only Swale in 1984 has ever begun the fateful trip at Churchill Downs in that hole and come home first. And he is being picked in this column, which, considering past performances, makes the Sports Illustrated cover jinx seem like an endorsement.

But Best Pal will win the Kentucky Derby.

Why?

Because the two biggest unknowns about this race probably are these: None of the horses entered in the 1 1/4-mile race has ever run competitively beyond 1 1/8 miles, and all of them are being asked to do so for the first time as 3-year-olds, a stage of their development akin to a human’s teen-age years. And calling that mix unpredictable is being kind.

“Everybody seems to be able to run a mile, but did you ever notice how every step after that gets heavier and heavier?” trainer D. Wayne Lukas said Friday.

“And if you go back the next day and look at the picture some photographer has taken at the eighth pole (1 1/8 miles into the race), what I call gut-check time, you’ve still got four or five horses in the frame. What strings them out from there,” he said, “is class.”

Class is not simply a circumstance of birth, or else Prince Charles would be in demand as a polo player instead of simply tolerated. Class in the context of the Kentucky Derby field means rising to meet a challenge again and again, without complaint, and no horse here has done that better than Best Pal.

He was whipped by Dinard, the best horse not to come through the gruelling string of Derby trials, first in the San Rafael and a short time later in the Santa Anita Derby. Best Pal finished third in the San Rafael and hung on mightily until the final yards of the Santa Anita Derby. Yet, when he was shipped to Churchill Downs in mid-April, he responded with class and promptly laid down three of the best workouts of his youthful career.

In order, he went 1:12 1-5 for six furlongs on a dull track, then 1:39 1-5 for a mile, and finally, in a drill that included emphasizing the unique local conditions at Churchill Downs by starting on one turn and finishing on another, 59 1-5 for five furlongs. In short, Ian Jory, the 33-year-old Englishman who trains Best Pal, has prepared the horse to run no matter which of the several possible scenarios unfolds Saturday.

The most likely one is this: Because favored Fly So Free drew the No. 1 position and Best Pal the next-to-last outside slot, the cavalry charge into the first turn will be unusually fast. Early speed also figures to come from Sea Cadet, Mane Minister, Forty Something and Lukas’ Corporate Report.

On the backstretch, Sea Cadet will be in front by two lengths and “the short hitters,” Lukas said, “will fall away like someone falling out of a bed.” The front of the second tier of horses -- Fly So Free, Best Pal, Hansel and Strike the Gold -- will be in position and the jockeys aboard them will be counting on the pace to bring Sea Cadet back to them.

In succession, each will then take a shot at the front, and all but one will fall back. Fly So Free will find the traffic too heavy. Hansel will run out of steam, and Strike The Gold, the closest thing on paper in this Derby to a genuine closer, will close off everybody except for Best Pal along the rail.

Since handicapping is a dangerous business, something else entirely could happen. This was Jimmy “The Greek” Snyder’s memorable prediction in 1973 and he found work in the handicapping business for another dozen years.

“I don’t know why,” he said, “but I don’t like Secretariat.”