Analysts Predict Success for Disney Theme Park : Entertainment: They say that either the Long Beach or Anaheim site would be profitable.

Entertainment industry analysts may be split over whether Walt Disney Co. should build its next theme park in Anaheim or Long Beach, but they agree on this: Wherever it is, Disney will make plenty of money.

The Burbank-based entertainment giant has built successful parks in California, Florida and Japan, and industry experts expect the same kind of performance from the $2.9-billion Euro Disneyland when it opens in France next spring. While there are significant obstacles to clear before building either Port Disney in Long Beach or Westcot Center and a new hotel complex in Anaheim, analysts say that if anyone can pull off such an undertaking, Disney can.

“The name Disney is still magical, not only in terms of the product they produce and present to the public, but also the ability to manage and control their properties,” said James Harmon, a partner with Management Resources, a Tustin consulting firm. “Their record as an organization allows them to move ahead with programs and projects on huge scales when perhaps another company couldn’t.”

Disney’s theme parks accounted for more than half the company’s revenue last year, generating a record $3 billion for fiscal 1990, up from $2.6 billion the year before.

This year, however, the theme park business has been in a slump, with operating income for the quarter ended March 31 falling to $130.7 million from $194.5 million in last year’s second quarter. This year the tourism business has been hurt by the recession and the Persian Gulf War.

Disney, however, is looking much farther into the future.

In a carefully orchestrated series of press briefings Wednesday and Thursday, Disney officials unveiled conceptual plans for a $3-billion “second gate” development next to Disneyland. The development would include Westcot Center--patterned after Epcot Center in Orlando, Fla.--a new resort hotel complex and major transportation improvements that, together, the company hopes will make central Anaheim more attractive.

Company officials concede that the area surrounding Disneyland is a problem they must address in order to boost attendance.

When the original park opened 36 years ago, “Disneyland was essentially the only development in what was a sea of orange groves,” said Kerry Hunnewell, vice president of development for Disney Development Co., the parent company’s real estate arm. “Today, Disneyland is about the only green space in what is an area . . . marked by busy streets, surface parking lots, overhead power lines and rather confusing signage.”

Some analysts speculate that the urban blight, together with the constraints that accompany development, might make the Long Beach project Disney’s secret first choice--if, as promised, the company builds only one project now.

“I was more intrigued with the Long Beach project,” said one New York entertainment analyst who did not want to be identified. “There would be nothing like it in the world.” Recalling Epcot, “it cost $1.2 billion when it opened, and the return on investment was just abysmal for the first three or four years.” But as attendance grew and prices rose, Epcot eventually become more profitable, the analyst said.

John Robinett, a theme park industry consultant hired by the city of Long Beach to analyze the Port Disney project, agreed that Disney would be showing more imagination if it built what he called “a major fish attraction.”

“Long Beach is a very unique and compelling design, which I think the industry needs,” Robinett said. “Anaheim really presents some problems in terms of congestion.” In addition, he said, Los Angeles has not had an ocean-oriented theme park since Marineland shut down several years ago.

But Harmon of Management Resources said he saw distinct advantages for Disney in choosing the Anaheim project.

“If they can work out the access and transportation issues with the city, it truly does add to an already impressive mix of entertainment elements in Anaheim,” Harmon said.

“Look at what else they’re talking about: enlarging the hotel base, the (planned) sports arena. You’ve got the stadium. You end up with a lot of critical mass, and that’s important in this industry. There’s great synergy there.”

City officials in Anaheim and Long Beach will spend the next few months trying to figure out what they can offer Disney. And that, said Salomon Bros. analyst Margo L. Vignola, may be the precise effect the company sought in its less-than-detailed announcement this week.

“I think it’s designed to nudge along some of the authorities,” Vignola said.

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