Bowl Picture Muddled Further by X Factor : College football: Alliance of three major bowls with a fourth would be a step closer to a quasi-playoff system.

Are you ready for Son of Rose Bowl?

It could happen. Then again, so could a lot of things as the so-called “alliance,” comprising the Orange Bowl, Cotton Bowl, Sugar Bowl, Notre Dame, Atlantic Coast Conference and Big East Conference, continues to tinker with the future of postseason games.

Whatever this coalition of bowl power brokers decides--and something could be determined as early as next week or as late as mid-July--college football will take a step closer to a quasi-playoff system.

Fresh from a Thursday night conference call, representatives of the three major bowls, Notre Dame and the two conferences agreed to, well, keep their mouths shut until their negotiations are complete. Mum’s the word as they decide on a fourth bowl--referred to as “Bowl X”--to join their elite group.

Their goal, of course, is to corner the market on the best eight teams, put them in the Cotton, Orange, Sugar and “X” bowls, then happily watch the national championship possibilities develop. The teams would include the champions of the Big Eight, Southeastern, ACC, Big East and Southwest conferences, as well as Notre Dame--if its record is, say, 8-3 or better--and two at-large teams, from other conferences, independents or both.

Among the many items still to be determined is the status of Bowl X. The Fiesta and Citrus are considered the two prime candidates, although the Blockbuster has made a late aggressive push. Also interested in joining the mix are the Gator, Peach and Holiday bowls, with the Holiday given the best chance of emerging as a surprise pick.

“I’d love to be the lawyer writing this agreement,” said John Reid, executive director of the Holiday Bowl. “You’d get rich. It’s going to be a real legal exercise to get this together.”

At the heart of the matter is Bowl X. It is considered important because it provides a safety net for the alliance.

For example, suppose an independent such as Louisville ended the regular season ranked No. 1 and Notre Dame finished No. 2. As an at-large team, the Cardinals would then play for the national championship against the Irish.

Not surprisingly, it was Notre Dame that insisted that a fourth bowl be added to the coalition, thus increasing the Irish’s chances of playing in a national title game.

Things get real interesting if the alliance chooses another bowl instead of the Fiesta as its fourth. Such a decision could bring about the creation of a Rose Bowl Jr. According to Tom Hansen, commissioner of the Pac-10, a Fiesta matchup involving the runners-up of his league and the Big Ten would be “a very attractive bowl for us. We’ve certainly had some conversation about that.”

The plan has its share of powerful lobbyists. Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delaney is pushing for a deal that would guarantee his second-place finisher a big-money bowl appearance. Penn State Coach Joe Paterno, whose Nittany Lions will be on the Big Ten football schedule in 1993, is also a strong supporter of the idea.

As for Hansen, he wants to make sure that the Pac-10 runner-up isn’t forgotten at season’s end, and that if the Fiesta Bowl loses its bid to become the fourth bowl and later chooses to work a deal with two conferences, the Pac-10 will be one of them.

There are several problems with the plan, mainly that the Fiesta, in Tempe, Ariz., is the logical and preferred alliance choice as Bowl X. Its 1991 payout was $2.5 million, which isn’t far from the $3 million required by the bowl coalition. In contrast, the Citrus, in Orlando, Fla., paid $1.35 million to its teams. Also, the Fiesta has more experience with playing host to national championship games and would provide the alliance with more geographical balance.

Of course, the Fiesta is also without a title sponsor and still is smarting from the political and image fallout of last year’s Martin Luther King Jr. state holiday controversy. If selected as the fourth bowl, the Fiesta’s sponsor and money difficulties would probably disappear. Questions concerning Arizona’s political problems aren’t so predictable.

Another potential stumbling block is the recent recommendation of the NCAA Special Events Committee, which oversees postseason football competition. The committee, of which Hansen is a member, wants to prevent such an arrangement between conference runners-up. A vote is expected at the NCAA Convention in January and Delaney already has stated his intention to fight the committee’s ruling. Hansen, too, is expected to support a Pac-10 runner-up deal, if it comes to that.

There also is the delicate matter of appeasing the Rose Bowl. Under terms of the contract, no Pac-10 or Big Ten team can play in another bowl game whose broadcast overlaps the Rose Bowl on either end by 45 minutes. The Fiesta and Rose compete in the same New Year’s Day time slot.

“We just don’t want (a Pac-10 or Big Ten team) to go against us,” said Rose Bowl football committee chairman Harriman Cronk.

However, Cronk said that if the Fiesta starting time was appropriately altered, the Rose Bowl could live with another Pac-10 vs. Big Ten game. Adding to the intrigue: If the Fiesta became the fourth bowl . . . and if it changed its kickoff time, then an at-large team (for instance, a co-champion) could come from the Big Ten or Pac-10.

What will happen next is best left to readers of tea leaves. According to those familiar with the alliance meetings, the debate regarding the remaining issues has been spirited, to say the least. Shouting isn’t uncommon in the meetings.

Even when a decision is made on Bowl X, the plan isn’t expected to be put into place until the following season. Until then, the alliance works away. If it is successful, college football will never be the same.