Officials Still Cautious on Ending U.S. Sanctions

Monday’s repeal of the Population Registration Act started the clock toward the lifting of U.S. sanctions against South Africa--a goal the Bush Administration has long sought--but political factors will determine how quickly that clock ticks.

Sanctions were imposed over then-President Ronald Reagan’s veto in 1986. Although Bush has not embraced Reagan’s active opposition to the sanctions policy, he has never hidden his desire to lift them when events allowed.

Last year, for example, when he invited South African President Frederik W. de Klerk and African National Congress leader Nelson Mandela to Washington, Bush said he thought some of the sanctions were “counterproductive.” But, he added, he was bound by the 1986 law to keep the sanctions in force.

Now, at least some Administration officials believe the conditions in the law for lifting the sanctions have been met.

Other officials, however, say that such a decision now would be premature. Those arguing for a slow pace say Bush should not rush ahead with a policy that would create a fight with black Americans and others already angry at his position on civil rights.

Bush took a noncommittal position. “We’re going to analyze it carefully,” he said Monday of the South African action. He spoke aboard Air Force One as he prepared to head from Los Angeles to Colorado.

Asked what problems remain, Bush referred questions to his national security adviser, Brent Scowcroft, who was similarly cautious. “We have to look at the political prisoner thing,” Scowcroft said, referring to questions about whether South Africa has released all those jailed for political reasons.

Bush is likely to address the sanctions issue again when he meets later this week with Chief Mangosuthu Gatsha Buthelezi, South African Zulu leader and head of the Inkatha Freedom Party, whose members have been in a virtual state of war with the ANC for months. Buthelezi is also expected to meet with several members of House and Senate foreign affairs panels today.

Publicly, Administration officials followed Bush’s cautious lead. State Department officials hailed South Africa’s repeal of the Population Registration Act, which classified all South Africans by race, as a “positive development.” But they insisted that a decision on sanctions will have to await a careful analysis of U.S. law and future South African actions.

Privately, however, the officials conceded the eventual decision will have more to do with politics than legal niceties.

Some leading Republicans who previously supported sanctions appear willing to support a change.

Reform in South Africa “took some time, but it has occurred and it ought to be recognized,” said Sen. Richard G. Lugar (R-Ind.), an influential member of the Foreign Relations Committee. Although some members of Congress would like to see new conditions met before sanctions are lifted, “that’s a minority position,” Lugar said.

On the other side, Rep. Howard Wolpe (D-Mich.), who until recently headed the House panel overseeing African policy, declared that reform in South Africa has been less sweeping than the Administration claims.

Other leading Democrats, such as Sen. Edward M. Kennedy (D-Mass.) and Sen. Paul Simon (D-Ill.), who heads the Senate Foreign Relations Africa subcommittee, took similar stands.