County’s Hot Real Estate Market Tops Southland : Housing: May sales are up 34.7% over April. But some agents caution that the resurgence may be short-lived.
Ventura County’s housing market was the hottest in Southern California in May, registering a 34.7% sales increase over April and an even greater gain over May, 1990, the California Assn. of Realtors reported Tuesday.
But despite three straight months of encouraging sales reports, some county real estate agents cautioned that the resurgence may be short-lived.
“Don’t forget, the May figures represent sales that were made in March and April,” said Sam Hare, head of Suburban Realty in Simi Valley. He said it usually takes at least two months for a sale to close escrow and show up in the association’s statistics.
“Since then, the market has slowed,” Hare said. “In fact, I expect the figures for August to be deplorable.”
Hare is chairman of the Multiple Listing Service of the Simi Valley-Moorpark Assn. of Realtors, one of the county’s largest realty groups. Hare’s group reported 194 sales of single-family houses and condominiums in May, an increase of 45.8% over April and a 31% jump from May, 1990.
In the county as a whole, house sales in May were up 40.2% compared with those in May, 1990.
These gains will not continue unless the economy heats up and consumers regain confidence to spend their money, Hare said. “A lot of people are still concerned about the economy, even though some economists claim the recession is bottoming out. People have to be convinced.”
Hare said that if an economic turnaround does not materialize soon, he is “afraid this summer’s housing market will be very much like that of last summer.” Many real estate agents say the summer of 1990 was their slowest in memory, with sales lagging far behind the real estate boom of 1988 and 1989.
Despite the improved sales figures, housing prices in the county have actually continued to drop slightly. The median price in the county fell to $231,560 in May, 1.8% below April’s $235,910 and 2.8% below the May, 1990, median of $238,220.
Bobbi Courselle, manager of the Ventura office of MacElhenny, Levy & Co., said she expects housing sales in the county to rise “steadily” until October or November.
After that, she anticipates a slowdown that could last until next spring. “From then on, I expect us to do pretty well. I think we are recovering, but it will be a slow process.”
Courselle said the brokers in her office “had a very good April and May, although things slowed down in the first two weeks of June, which traditionally are slow anyway.”
In Ventura, the low end of the market is the hottest, with midtown and west side homes selling relatively quickly at prices ranging from $140,000 to $210,000, she said. Houses on Ventura’s east side and the pricier homes in hillside areas are beginning to sell too, but not as quickly, she said.
Courselle said her office recently got quick results listing a small home in the Ventura foothills. “The house sold in six days for close to the asking price of $279,000, and it had no view.”
Area agents said condominium sales continue to lag. Condos are traditionally the last sector of residential housing to rebound. “And things have yet to pick up in Ventura Keys and other beach areas,” Courselle said.
Anne Geib, president of the Camarillo Board of Realtors and a broker with Mason-Churchill Realty, said house sales in that city slowed down for about a month after spurting at the end of the first quarter.
Now, she said, the market is picking up again. “I’m looking forward to a good summer--definitely better than last year.”
Geib sees great opportunity for buyers, with prices remaining soft and fixed-rate mortgages available at interest rates under 10%. “The window is still open; it’s a wonderful time to buy a home.”
Her views were echoed by Fred Priebe, president of the Conejo Valley Assn. of Realtors and executive vice president of Brown Realtors.
“Right now we have enough inventory to keep prices fairly stable,” he said. “But because of problems in the banking industry, very few builders are able to finance new projects these days.
“I know it’s hard to believe, but I foresee a shortage of homes in the next year or two.”
The May real estate figures marked Ventura County’s third consecutive month of improved sales. The upswing started with a 63.3% jump in March, followed by a 30.1% gain in April.
It was also the second time in the past three months that the county has led Southern California’s real estate comeback. In comparison with the county’s 34.7% rise in May, single-family home sales rose 16.9% in Los Angeles County and 24.3% in Santa Barbara County.
Only the rural counties of uppermost Northern California showed a larger gain than Ventura County in May. Sales in that area rose 37.9%, the California Assn. of Realtors reported.
Regional Home Sales and Price Activity
Based on closed escrows of single-family homes, not including condominiums, during May.
Price Price Sales Sales Median Change Change Change Change Price From 4/91 From 5/90 From 4/91 From 5/90 Ventura 231,560 -1.8 -2.8 34.7 40.2 Santa Barbara 223,570 -10.8 -1.1 24.3 -4.9 San Diego 189,760 3.3 4.9 23.5 2.2 Riverside/S.Bdo. 134,920 1.0 1.5 20.8 -2.7 Los Angeles 223,360 5.7 3.5 16.9 9.5 S.F. Bay 267,490 2.3 2.8 10.4 36.4 Central Valley 122,740 3.6 2.1 8.0 -15.8 Orange County 240,390 0.0 -6.5 4.7 20.5 High Desert 103,210 3.5 -4.6 1.6 -8.1 STATEWIDE 207,840 1.2 6.4 7.0 9.2
Source: California Assn. of Realtors
