Recession-Watchers Employ an Alphabet Stew : Economy: Business analysts give the ABCs of bad news. Is current downturn a <i> U</i> , <i> W</i> or <i> L</i> ?

As at least one analyst sees it, this is an L of a recession, in contrast with others who say it’s a U, a few who declare it to be a V --and some cynics who say it’s a W.

These are visualizations given to recessions, including this one, by folks who otherwise might not be understood, because they usually speak an economics language that looks and sounds like Cyrillic to most people.

A letter U, or more aptly the figure U, is generally considered to be the typical recession, marked by an abrupt descent, a stay on the bottom to correct imbalances and an upward burst or recovery.

It does not seem to portray the current recession adequately, at least judging from the revised outlooks pouring from forecasting centers in government and business and from Wall Street and academe.

In fact, no letter of the alphabet might be properly shaped to illustrate what many of the economic fraternity are inclined to call a shallow and rather uneventful recession, to be followed by only a gradual ascent to expansion.

For that description they may be forced to borrow a musical symbol--a tie--which enhances the duration of a note by merging it with another and looks like the inverted tip of a fingernail.

But for most recessions, the alphabet will do.

A V recession is short and sharp, one that stabs upward rather than meandering around at the bottom. It is relatively rare, and one that few economists use in describing the recession of 1990-91.

One forecaster who does use it, John Dessauer, a newsletter publisher based in Orleans, Mass., qualifies his use by indicating that after the upward leg regains its lost territory, any further gains will be slower to come.

A bit more commonly, the descent into recession and the expansion to come is portrayed as a W, an ominous symbol to those who hope the economy will get untracked in the next few weeks. A W is a double-dip recession.

Economists David Wyss and Roger Brinner of DRI-McGraw Hill, a forecasting unit of Standard & Poor’s Corp., are more optimistic than a W, but they refer to it as a possibility that could upset their scenario.

Among various worries and concerns about the future, they list an expansion that “could be aborted quickly by domestic and foreign financial problems, creating a W- shaped recession”--that is, a brief recovery and recession again.

All these shapes are familiar to forecasters, their clients and their audiences, but the L is not. So far as can be determined, it is the recent creation of Sindlinger & Co. of Wallingford, Pa.

Albert Sindlinger, chairman, an octogenarian who remembers clearly the Great Depression of the 1930s, contends that this recession is structurally different from any other in recent years--and that it will last longer.

Part of his reason for so thinking is the plight of the consumer, who is relied upon by many forecasters to lift the nation up from recession. He asks how that can be. Consumers, he says, tell him they’re broke.

Not only have they little cash to spend, he says, but they have big debts and big taxes. Unlike 1980, when interest payments made up just 5% of personal income, that category accounts for 15% today.

That, he says, deprives the Federal Reserve of what used to be its most potent weapon against recession: the ability to jump-start economic activity by lowering interest rates to make borrowing more alluring.

Now, he says, when the Fed lowers interests rates, it cuts into the ability of consumers to do their part to activate the market.

He says that takes away rather than enhances buying power.

Therefore, he says, the economy is heading to, or already in, L.

He also says that the descent has been longer and more painful than recorded by statisticians and that the bottom will be longer than realized.

How long?

He doesn’t claim to know. That’s why he left off the final leg of the letter, the upward stroke that would have turned it into a U.

That’s the L of it, he says, suggesting that this recession is open-ended.