A Light Rail Poses Weighty Questions : * Transit Planners Should Proceed With Caution

Orange County has a $1-billion dream. It’s the construction of a 23-mile urban elevated rail line between Irvine and Fullerton that, under the best estimates, could attract 70,000 riders a day.

It’s a nice idea for addressing congestion and perhaps also for revitalizing older urban corridors in the county. But the question yet to be fully answered is whether this is really a dream solution--or just a pipe dream.

If such a light rail system could be put in place and, most important, if it could be made to work financially, there would be obvious benefits for a clogged county. Orange County already is arguably the most congested in the state, and there are projections that by early in the next century, there will an estimated 25% increase in population, compared to 1990 estimates. Something has to give.

The goal of using rail systems to supplement existing transportation arteries increasingly has become an attractive notion in Southern California and around the country. But now that a group of six cities and the Orange County Transportation Authority are looking at the idea, there’s a lot to be sorted out.

Anaheim, Costa Mesa, Fullerton, Irvine, Orange and Santa Ana have hired an executive director to pilot the project, and the Transportation Authority is looking at several studies. The biggest question is financing, and whether the optimists are overestimating ridership and operating costs.

Under current projections, the system could gather $375 million from Measure M, the transportation sales tax passed last year by voters, $200 million from the private sector and $125 million from state bonds. Even that optimistic assessment leaves $300 million yet to be found to make up the projected $1-billion cost. Forecasting has already proven to be an inexact science. For example, Santa Ana Mayor Daniel H. Young, an enthusiastic proponent, acknowledges that public funds are now necessary. He previously said that a monorail could be financed and built solely by private enterprise.

The record elsewhere around the country is not good either. Miami ridership is 85% less than forecast when a rail project there was approved, and costs to build the system were a third higher than expected. Portland, Ore.’s, light rail line went 55% over cost estimates, and ridership is well off.

The state of the art of planning for this rail line is somewhat primitive. Young, for instance, has changed his vision of routes through the heart of Santa Ana several times, sketching different possibilities at various times on a paper napkin. To get the public on board this dream train, public officials at some point are going to have to project a coherent sense of what the project will really be.

The issue of redevelopment needs some attention too. Is this a transportation project first, or is it somehow a vehicle for opening land to development, masquerading as a proposal to ease congestion?

One thing that proponents don’t lack is confidence to charge ahead, even with the questions. Such enthusiasm will have to be matched with hard answers in a time of tight budgets. Surely new commuter lines along the Amtrak rails may be a real possibility given what’s already there. The question is whether new urban routes are feasible as well.

A final decision on the line is not expected until early 1993. With the Transportation Authority launching several studies, there is time enough for realistic assessment. This is an attractive idea, but let’s proceed down the tracks with caution.