Counting People Out

So now Commerce Secretary Robert A. Mosbacher admits that the census total is off by as many as 5 million people. He’s “sad” and “deeply troubled” over a flawed head tally that failed to count minorities as well as it counted whites. Yet he refuses to adjust the figures.

Could politics account for the refusal?

The 1990 census counted 248.7 million people. But as many as 254 million actually live in this nation, according to a post-census survey and a demographic analysis, based on birth and death certificates and immigration and emigration statistics. Those studies provide the logical basis for a reasonable adjustment. They even prompted the director of the Census Bureau, Barbara Bryant, to recommend a revision to include African-Americans, Latinos, Asian-Americans, homeless people and others who were missed. That is a just recommendation.

Without a recount, suspicions will inevitably surface that the Republican Administration wants to undercount Democrats. That is, the people who are most likely to have been missed are viewed as politically loyal to the Democratic Party; many live in big cities that tend to elect Democrats. Does that coincidence influence Mosbacher?

Perhaps not, but everyone knows that the census produces coveted dividends. The raw numbers are used to determine how many congressional seats are allotted to each state. A growth spurt leads to additional seats in the House of Representatives. California gained seven seats in the House under the unadjusted 1990 count. State officials had expected to gain another seat if the recommended adjustment went through.

The census also pays financial dividends. The total is used in the formulas by which about $45 billion in federal aid is divvied up among cities. Some state funding is also computed on the basis of the census figures. The undercount could cost Los Angeles as much as $1 billion in federal and state aid during the next 10 years.

Because so much is at stake, many cities, including Los Angeles and New York, are preparing legal challenges to the undercount. We hope they prevail.

Big cities have been shortchanged in the most recent federal budgets and should not be forced to give up even more aid because of a census undercount that can be remedied relatively easily.