U.S. Seeks Way to Spur Momentum : Policy: Officials hope for freedom for another Westerner or for prisoners controlled by Israel.

Bush Administration officials, searching for ways to sustain the apparent momentum toward resolution of the hostage crisis, expressed hope Monday that one of two specific steps would be taken in coming days to keep the effort on track.

But U.S. officials noted that either step--release of more Western hostages or a partial release of Arab captives held by Israel--is largely beyond the ability of Washington to orchestrate and would require action or intervention by other players in the hostage drama.

So far, there have been no concrete developments on either front. Even so, some U.S. officials are hopeful that U.N. Secretary General Javier Perez de Cuellar may be able to negotiate a phased process resulting in the release of nearly 400 Western hostages, Arab prisoners and Israeli soldiers.

U.N. envoy Giandomenico Picco, who has been in the Middle East since the release of British hostage John McCarthy last week, reportedly was headed back to Beirut from Damascus, Syria, on Monday and is expected to return to Damascus soon to continue his consultations.

One U.S. source said Picco is “talking to people and ferrying information.” Picco is noted for his contacts with Iranian officials and is well regarded by the Islamic Republic for his work on U.N. Resolution 598, which set the terms for the 1988 cease-fire in the eight-year war between Iran and Iraq.

In addition, a special mission by Israeli mediator Uri Lubrani, who traveled to Geneva with another Israeli negotiator and met Monday with Perez de Cuellar, has generated hopeful signs that a partial release or a broader hostage pact may be a possibility.

“There is definitely an exchange going on,” said the U.S. source, speaking on condition of anonymity.

But as the initial euphoria over the release of three Western hostages in Lebanon settled into a dull ache, Administration officials wondered--and worried--over a single question: What’s next?

“If only we knew,” lamented one U.S. counterterrorism official. “But, frankly, we really have no idea. Remember, we’re not an active part of the effort now.”

A key concern of many U.S. officials is that the absence of positive moves toward a broader hostage and prisoner deal could cause the kind of letdown that followed the 1990 release of American hostages Robert Polhill and Frank H. Reed.

Last year, U.S. officials hoped that the two releases, eight days apart, signaled the beginning of the end of an ordeal that has witnessed the abduction of more than 130 foreigners from 22 countries since 1982. But nothing happened.

One current hope is that another of the 10 remaining Western captives--five Americans, two Britons, two Germans and one Italian--will be freed soon.

“It’s a possibility,” said a U.S. specialist monitoring the crisis. “But at this stage, all we have is rumor, rumor and more rumors.”

Despite speculation over the weekend, President Bush told reporters at his Kennebunkport, Me., vacation home that he has no concrete information about another imminent release.

A second hope is that Israel will allow a “good faith” release of some of the 375 Arab prisoners under its control. Over the weekend, a series of ranking Israeli officials vehemently denied that they would even consider the possibility in the absence of any concrete action on the unresolved fate of seven Israeli servicemen taken in Lebanon since 1982.

But some officials and Middle East experts suggested that mounting pressure on Israel, especially now that the public mediating role has been delegated to Perez de Cuellar, might force it to make a token release just to avoid being seen as the main obstacle to freedom for Western hostages.

In the meantime, U.S. officials said Perez de Cuellar is beginning what they call a “nudging” process to encourage further movement. “The United States is not in a position to facilitate anything,” said one source monitoring the unfolding situation.

“We don’t hold any of the Western hostages, Arab prisoners or Israeli prisoners of war whose freedom is demanded to break the logjam,” the source said. “We’ve already done all we can by calling on all parties to release all captives.”

But the United Nations, he pointedly added, is capable of doing things that the United States cannot, including engaging in direct negotiations with Iran and possibly even contacting Lebanese groups who hold either the Western hostages or the Israeli soldiers.

One U.S. official noted that Perez de Cuellar “can break the logjam by narrowing the differences. . . . He’ll listen to everyone’s views and then craft a plan to deal with the obstacles.”

U.S. sources monitoring the hostage situation suggested a general framework for a possible phased hostage-for-prisoner swap that could include the two short-term steps.

The first phase would entail a limited Israeli release of Arab captives to coincide with the release of another Western hostage and confirmation through the U.N. secretary general of the status of the seven missing Israeli servicemen. All but one of the Israelis are widely believed to be dead, but Israel also has demanded verification and return of their remains.

The second phase, the sources said, might include dispatching U.N. or International Red Cross personnel to Lebanon to verify the remains and to receive any surviving Israelis. This mission could coincide with Israel’s release of Sheik Abdel Karim Obeid, a prominent Lebanese Shiite Muslim leader abducted by Israeli commandos in 1989. There would follow either the phased or total release of the remaining Western hostages.

A final phase might feature a simultaneous swap of the Israelis and the Arab prisoners.