ORANGE COUNTY PERSPECTIVE : Keeping Mass Transit on Track

One of the most unpredictable parts of planning a rail system is projecting ridership. It was precisely the quest for the right numbers, through computer modeling, that Brian Pearson, rail project manager for the Orange County Transportation Authority, says accounted for the whopping $590,000 cost of the new draft countywide master rail plan, now the subject of public workshops.

What is the county getting for this overly expensive exercise, considering the power of a recession to dampen long-term projections for expansion and the unreliability of ridership figures? Pearson acknowledges that spending more than $3 billion on new commuter rail service and a 25-mile elevated rail system depends entirely on having long-range development plans materialize and on the accuracy of a projected 43% growth in employment. There also are big questions about money for expansion.

Yet the answer is that it’s better to have a plan than not have one. And make no mistake--commuter rail makes sense to get automobiles off congested freeways. Wisely, the study begins with modest hopes for improving existing service between employment centers, and it does it with money in the pipeline. Moreover, the system is designed so that the entire project does not have to be built at once, but rather can in stages be implemented (or even scrapped) to match growth.

But even with these pluses, political and economic problems lie ahead. There’s bound to be grumbling about the plan’s failure to serve the beach cities, or to do more for South County. The elevated rail system fuels the dreams of developers along rights of way, but financing is a big uncertainty. And the elevated system’s failure to connect with the Los Angeles Metro Rail system is already being questioned by the OCTA board’s public representative.

Communities that would be served will like the blueprint; those that wouldn’t, won’t. It has some good ideas and a few pipe dreams too. On balance, because the plan is realistic about the commitment of future public funds, it merits serious consideration by the OCTA board.