Hussein Secretly Arranging New Weapon Sources

Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein secretly has begun arranging new sources of weapons and other military hardware and has shown other signs that he intends to reassert his role as an intimidating bully in the oil-rich Persian Gulf, U.S. government analysts said Friday.

The warning about Hussein’s new steps came in the wake of President Bush’s vow to take military action, if necessary, to force Hussein to comply with U.N. resolutions authorizing inspectors to search for--and destroy--all of Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction.

Analysts said they expect Hussein to stave off any immediate U.S.-led military strike by agreeing to allow U.N. helicopters to carry inspection teams without restrictions in the search for Iraqi weapons facilities. Such a response would be consistent with the policy Hussein has followed in postwar confrontations of going to the brink before finally backing down, but never fully complying with terms of the cease-fire agreement.

Bush has indicated he is unlikely to allow Hussein to pursue this policy indefinitely without ordering a military strike. In Los Angeles this week, he declared that when a President warns he will take military action to ensure compliance with international accords, “he ought not to do it without being willing to back that up.”

The President said ground forces would not be needed if the Operation Desert Storm allies resume military action against Iraq, adding that there is “a lot of air power” in the area that could be unleashed against Hussein. And U.S. officials noted Friday that “we are prepared to do precision bombing if that becomes necessary.”

Some officials see a military strike as Bush’s only recourse. “Saddam understands the exercise of power, not just power, but the exercise of power,” one official stressed. “The only thing the Administration was faulted for before was why we didn’t know about him earlier and move against him earlier.”

Administration sources said that Brent Scowcroft, Bush’s national security adviser, favors preparing for military action sooner rather than later, while Defense Department officials are advocating the buildup of a larger force in the Persian Gulf before any action is taken.

“The difference of opinion is not whether we go or not,” said an official in direct contact with senior Pentagon officials. “It is whether we diddle around or not.”

The Pentagon’s view, he said, “is if we are going to play the game, let’s come ready to finish the job if we have to.”

Bush may meet this weekend with Scowcroft, Defense Secretary Dick Cheney, Secretary of State James A. Baker III and other senior aides to work out differences over U.S. policy toward Iraq and to devise a plan of action, the official said.

Hussein, using various subterfuges to distract and defy U.N. inspectors, has hoarded several hundred Scud missiles and several missile launchers, as well as hundred of tons of chemical warfare agents not disclosed to U.N. investigators, analysts said.

In addition, the Iraqis are believed to have concealed biological weapons facilities. And while analysts believe that the U.N. inspectors have had considerable success in uncovering parts of Iraq’s nuclear weapons program, significant aspects remain hidden.

Even more disturbing, they said, is evidence that the Iraqis have been rebuilding some of the weapons previously destroyed under U.N. auspices and rebuilding the clandestine procurement system that worked so effectively in building up the Iraqi military machine before the war.

Hussein’s appointment of his son-in-law, Hussein Kamel Hassan, as minister of defense was viewed by analysts as a sign of the Iraqi leader’s determination to rebuild the procurement system and bring in new supplies of military parts and weapons. As minister of military industries, Kamel masterminded with ruthless efficiency the prewar procurement system.

The Iraqis, described as “extremely persistent and goal-oriented” in trying to preserve their weapons of mass destruction, have managed to keep several hundred Scud missiles hidden from inspectors, according to U.S. calculations. Although Iraq fired 88 of the missiles during the war and U.N. inspectors since have destroyed 50 to 60, Hussein is believed to have retained a significant part of the 819 Scuds that the Soviets reported selling to Iraq.

“Several” mobile Scud missile launchers, as well as some missile production equipment, also have not been destroyed or located, analysts said.

As part of their effort to evade the U.N. weapons-destruction process, the Iraqis have welded back together Scud resupply vehicles that had been cut in half and have destroyed records that they claimed had been stolen, U.S. officials said. The Iraqis also are believed to have obscured the serial numbers of equipment to prevent U.N. inspectors from finding out how Iraq’s clandestine procurement network operates.

“In the inspections,” said one analyst, “we have dealt with deliberate deception from the outset. We have had to dance to Iraq’s tune in the use of transportation. They deliberately put obstacles in the road, petty little things at times (such as) an inspector who was ill, not getting him help right away, just driving around with him.”

The Iraqis also have played deadly games with inspectors searching for biological or chemical warfare equipment by deliberately allowing them to come in contact with canisters that are leaking. And they have stymied inspectors seeking information about production plants by sending out briefers who don’t have “a clue about what’s going on in the building,” one official said.

The Iraqis’ aim, said one analyst, is to “harass and frustrate and spin this process out until everyone gets frustrated and goes home.”

From Hussein’s point of view, the war is not over, the U.S. analysts said. The Iraqi ruler firmly believes he has greater staying power than the United States and its allies and that the coalition is likely to eventually unravel, they said.

Hussein, the officials said, is convinced that the outcome of the Vietnam War showed that the United States “will not hang in for the long haul.”

And despite Hussein’s pledges immediately after the war to bring democratic reforms to Iraq, analysts said he has not changed the authoritarian views he has held for the last 30 years and has no plans to institute true democracy.

While Hussein does not have firm control of some portions of southern and northern Iraq, he has consolidated his grip on the military around Baghdad, the core of his strength. Moreover, officials believe he is bent on revenge, and as long as he remains in power will be a disruptive and intimidating presence for his neighbors.

Revenge, which would be aimed at those countries in the forefront of the allied coalition, whether neighbors or not, probably would take the form of terrorism or sabotage, or subverting the Middle East peace process, analysts said.

Despite Hussein’s continuing strength and his brutal suppression of political opposition, government analysts do not rule out the possibility that he eventually could be toppled. They cited a low-level but consistent insurgency in the south that has taken the form of ambushes, assassinations and attacks on trains. They also noted reports of occasional “no-go” areas that are avoided by Iraqi troops at night because of the danger of being ambushed.

Cautioning against “painting a picture of a man 10 feet tall,” one analyst observed: “Things have changed in Iraq. There is a history in that country of smelling weakness.”

Times staff writers Jim Mann and John M. Broder in Washington contributed to this report.