NEWS ANALYSIS : Kremlin Sure to Welcome Plan Letting It End Costly Arms Programs : Bush initiative: Many of the President’s moves coincide with longtime Soviet aims. And they could provide that country with a real ‘peace dividend.’

For a nation struggling to salvage its economy from decades of costly militarization, President Bush’s arms reduction proposals will bring the Soviet Union a real opportunity to break free, and the Kremlin is certain to welcome them.

Many of Bush’s actions and proposals respond to some long-stated Soviet goals--the withdrawal of tactical nuclear weapons from Europe, the start of naval arms reduction, a general de-escalation of the military confrontation between the superpowers.

And the very foundation of Bush’s proposals--the accelerating move toward democracy here--strengthens the appeal that they will have here as a real “peace dividend” for a nation that yearns for prosperity, as well as for peace.

But there will be questions, too. Bush has pressed U.S. advantages hard in proposing the elimination of land-based, intercontinental ballistic missiles, where the Soviet Union has an edge, in favor of submarine-launched missiles, where the United States has superiority.

Bush is also clearly trying to lock in substantial arms cuts under President Mikhail S. Gorbachev that a later, possibly more conservative, Soviet leader might not accept. In the current turbulent atmosphere of Soviet politics, this could work both for and against the proposals.

Bush had explained his initiative, both in scope and detail, in a telephone call to Gorbachev before he spoke in Washington on Friday evening. And, recognizing the new balance of power here, Bush also talked with Russian Federation President Boris N. Yeltsin, who sets much of the political agenda here.

Yeltsin responded warmly, praising the Bush initiative and calling on the Soviet Union to respond with matching measures. Gorbachev, who was still conferring with Soviet experts, is expected to comment over the weekend, an aide said.

With Yeltsin as his new partner, Gorbachev may respond, as Bush hopes, with reciprocal but unilateral measures of his own. But the political costs will be closely calculated.

Gorbachev, who has campaigned for an end to all nuclear weapons by the year 2000, has used surprise but key concessions to move arms control negotiations ahead. But these hurt him with conservatives and turned many senior army commanders against him.

Yeltsin, meantime, has made clear his desire to move even faster toward nuclear disarmament, and his support for new Soviet moves could prove crucial. Yeltsin’s impact on Soviet foreign policy was evident this month in Moscow’s agreement to end arms shipments to Afghanistan and to pull its troops out of Cuba.

Several of the Bush proposals could have been drafted by Kremlin planners. Moscow has seen as highly threatening weapons such as the Tomahawk cruise missile and tactical nuclear weapons. The Soviets have urged with increasing vigor that arms reduction efforts be applied to naval forces.

Yet, Bush’s call for the superpowers to rely primarily, even exclusively, on submarine-launched missiles for their strategic deterrent will put Soviet forces at a disadvantage against the U.S. submarine fleet, and those of its allies. The Western subs and missiles are regarded as superior for their accuracy and stealth, if they are less numerous than the Soviet.

What will be most important for Moscow, however, will be the savings as the Soviet armed forces are reduced in the scope of their mission and in their size.

The potential Soviet savings from major arms cutbacks are even greater than those the U.S. might reap. That’s because the Kremlin, with a much smaller economy, must spend roughly three times what Washington does to develop the same weapons capability. About 22% of the Soviet GNP goes to defense, according to economists here, and that has starved the civilian economy.

The new Soviet defense minister, Air Marshal Yevgeny I. Shaposhnikov, told military attaches here this week that his forces are already being cut by a quarter under present arms reduction treaties. The key to further cutbacks rests in some reciprocal action by the West, Shaposhnikov said. In many ways, he got what he sought from Bush on Friday.

The President’s proposals for strengthened controls over nuclear weapons are also likely to appeal to the Soviet Union, which realized again during last month’s conservative coup d’etat how little it would take to start a nuclear war.