THOROUGHBRED RACING : Weekend May Unscramble Juvenile

It takes a brave handicapper to attempt to rate the horses that may run in the $1-million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs three weeks from Saturday.

That is why the Sands race book in Las Vegas recently listed Lure and Zurich as the favorites in the 2-year-old race, even though both colts were beaten in their last starts. The Daily Racing Form took the easy way out a week ago by listing five favorites, at 8-1.

Two races this weekend, the Champagne at Belmont Park on Saturday and the Norfolk at Santa Anita on Sunday, may reduce the doubt about the 2-year-old division, but don’t bet on it.

The Norfolk should be easier to pick than the Champagne, but only because there may be only seven juveniles running in it. The Champagne, a one-turn mile race, has drawn 14 starters.

Sons of Devil’s Bag, winner of the 1983 Champagne and champion 2-year-old in the era immediately before the start of the Breeders’ Cup, may play major roles in both races. At Belmont, Devil On Ice will be one of the favorites, trying to beat Lure again. Devil On Ice’s 1 1/4-length victory over Lure on Sept. 25 was achieved with two qualifications: They ran on a sloppy track and Lure was making his first start since June, when he was sidelined with sore shins.

Lure also is running in the Champagne, along with Caller I.D., one of only a few 2-year-olds that have already won more than one stake.

At Santa Anita, Bag is the probable favorite in the Norfolk, which is a 1 1/16-mile, two-turn race, the same distance as the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Chief’s Crown, a New York horse, was shipped to Santa Anita and won the Norfolk in 1984, then stayed and won the first running of the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile, at Hollywood Park. Capote became another Norfolk-Breeders’ Cup winner in 1986, when both of the stakes were run at Santa Anita.

Bag was too green to run in the Del Mar Futurity on Sept. 11, when Bertrando beat Zurich by 3 1/2 lengths. All three horses are expected to run Sunday. Bertrando is not eligible for the Breeders’ Cup, and it would cost $120,000 to supplement him into the Juvenile.

Star Recruit, a stablemate of Bag for trainer Jerry Fanning, ran third in the Del Mar Futurity, then was sent to Turfway Park in Florence, Ky., where he won the $150,000 Alysheba Stakes on Sept. 28.

Fanning said that he couldn’t get a California jockey to ride Star Recruit that day, so Ricardo Lopez got the call. Lopez has the mount again when Star Recruit runs in the Keeneland Breeders’ Futurity on Oct. 20.

There was always something Hollywood-ish about Dust Commander, the 1970 Kentucky Derby winner who was destroyed at 24 on Monday because of failing health.

Dust Commander’s trainer could have been Walter Brennan, his jockey Frankie Darro and the owners Stewart Granger and Betty Grable. Instead, the principals were Don Combs, Mike Manganello and Robert and Verna Lehmann.

Combs saddled only one other Derby starter. Manganello never had another serious Derby contender. The Lehmanns bought Dust Commander, a grandson of Bold Ruler, for $6,500, and he is still the only Illinois-bred to have won the Derby.

The Derby was the 23rd start of Dust Commander’s career, an extraordinary number of races for a young horse, even in that era. There hasn’t been a Derby winner since who had that many starts going into the race. Cannonade had 18 in 1974.

Dust Commander ran 14 times as a 2-year-old but was unable to beat $7,500 claiming horses at one stage. Before the 1970 Blue Grass at Keeneland, which was run nine days before the Derby, the colt had won five of 21 starts.

What most people overlooked, though, was that 20 of those races had been run on fast tracks. In the other start, on a muddy track at Delaware Park, Dust Commander had scored one of his five victories.

The track came up muddy for the Blue Grass, and Dust Commander registered his first important victory. Bob Lehmann was on a safari in India, and who could have blamed him? Dust Commander’s price was 35-1.

The Derby was Dust Commander’s fourth race in 29 days. His two pre-Blue Grass races at Keeneland were only three days apart. The public still didn’t believe in him at Churchill Downs, but it rained again and he coasted home by five lengths, paying $32.60.

Dust Commander finished ninth in the Preakness and, after the race, Combs had a disagreement with the owner. Lehmann then sent the colt to another trainer.

Dust Commander never won another stake and won only one of 19 races after the Derby. His success as a sire was just as fleeting. Master Derby, a son of Dust Commander, won the Preakness in 1975. The public hadn’t any confidence in him, either. He paid $48.80.