Wilson Panel Remap Plan Would Help Republicans

A bipartisan commission appointed by Gov. Pete Wilson proposed new Assembly, Senate and congressional districts on Friday that would greatly improve Republican chances to take control of the Legislature and California’s delegation in the House of Representatives.

Wilson endorsed the plans but suggested changes that would enhance the political clout of minorities, who would be left with the status quo or worse if the panel’s plan became law.

The proposed maps, and Wilson’s suggested changes, now go to the state Supreme Court, which appointed three retired judges to draw new political boundaries after Wilson vetoed the Legislature’s plans last month.

Unlike the Legislature’s proposal, the commission’s maps were drawn without regard to the preferences of the current lawmakers. The result: at least 18 of the 120 legislative districts include the homes or political bases of more than one incumbent, which would force them to run against each other or move and seek election in unfamiliar territory. Most of those doubled up are Democrats.

The panel’s plan would give five of the state’s seven new congressional seats to Southern California. The new districts appear to be split 4 to 3 in favor of Republican candidates.

“The plan is a fair one and good for the people of California,” Wilson said in a statement released by his office.

But Wilson said the panel--three Democrats and three Republicans, including a black, an Asian and a Latino--failed to recognize “certain political realities” affecting the ability of ethnic minority voters to elect representatives of their choice.

By the governor’s count, the panel’s maps included only five seats in which Latino voters would control the outcome of the election. There are currently a total of 10 Latinos in the Legislature and the congressional delegation.

Wilson said his proposed changes would create seven Assembly, three Senate and four congressional seats to which Latino voters could elect candidates of their choice. In each of these districts, Latinos represent at least 38% of the registered voters, allowing them in most cases to dominate the Democratic primary. In these districts, winning the Democratic primary would be tantamount to victory in the general election.

The panel’s plan included five seats in which blacks made up 35% of the population--one benchmark used to define districts controlled by black voters. Wilson’s changes doubled that number. Under the current lines, 11 blacks have been elected to seats in the Legislature and Congress.

The partisan effect of the panel’s plan would be to dramatically enhance Republican prospects in the Assembly, Senate and Congress. Currently, under lines drawn by Democrats in 1982, Democrats hold 47 of the 80 Assembly seats, 25 of the 40 Senate seats and 26 of the state’s 45 congressional seats.

Sources close to the governor who have analyzed the three plans said they would expect each party to easily win 36 or 37 Assembly seats, with the remainder up for grabs. In the Senate, these sources said, the plan appeared to have 18 Democratic seats, 16 Republican seats and six that could go either way. The congressional plan, with its seven new seats, was described as likely to produce a 23-23 split, with six competitive seats.

But those Republican estimates may be conservative. In the Assembly, for instance, the plan would create 42 districts in which Republicans would be at least 40% of the registered voters, which almost always means that the seat will go to the GOP. Another six seats would have between 37% and 40% Republican registration.

“It looks like 17 Democrats could be gerrymandered into oblivion,” said Bill Cavala, chief adviser on redistricting to Assembly Speaker Willie Brown (D-San Francisco).

But Dan Schnur, a spokesman for the governor, said “any plan that fixes a Democratic gerrymander is going to improve Republican prospects.”

The panel’s Assembly plan would collapse two Los Angeles County Assembly seats and move them to the Inland Empire, jeopardizing the careers of Democrats Richard E. Floyd of Carson and Terry B. Friedman of Los Angeles. The Senate plan would place Democrat Herschel Rosenthal of Los Angeles in the same district with Republican Robert G. Beverly of Manhattan Beach.