HORSE RACING : Scan Still Has Time to Salvage Season

The Breeders’ Cup Classic is not always won by a dominant champion. Upsetters such as Wild Again, Proud Truth and Skywalker have managed to capture the world’s richest horse race because they were late bloomers who hit peak form at the optimal time.

A similar type could win at Churchill Downs Nov. 2 because there are no great 1 1/4-mile runners this year and many of the leading contenders may be on the downgrade after long, hard campaigns. And now a colt has emerged who perfectly fits the profile of the late bloomer. His name is Scan, and speed handicappers believe he is good enough to beat any horse in the country.

Unfortunately, he may not get the chance to run in the Classic, because his own trainer doesn’t know how good he is. The divergence of opinions about Scan’s capabilities is based on an ancient racetrack debate: What is the better gauge of a horse’s ability -- speed or class?

Scan always has been something of a forgotten horse in trainer Scotty Schulhofer’s barn because his stablemate, Fly So Free, was the champion of his generation in 1990 and the early favorite for this year’s Kentucky Derby. Fly So Free won the country’s most important races for 2-year-olds, the Champagne Stakes and the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, performances that supposedly demonstrated his “class.”

But students of speed handicapping pointed out he never had run particularly fast and was merely the best of a bad bunch. Their assessment proved correct: Fly So Free flopped in the Kentucky Derby and has not won a Grade I stakes all season.

Scan, by contrast, always has been highly regarded by speed handicappers. When he won a late-season stakes in New York last fall, he ran faster than Fly So Free or any of the country’s 2-year-olds. But his 3-year-old campaign went awry from the start.

Owner William Haggin Perry likes racing in California, and asked Schulhofer to send the colt there for the winter. Scan ran poorly every time. “He didn’t acclimatize,” Schulhofer said. “A lot of horses have trouble when they go west. The weather is so different -- cold at night, hot during the day. But now he’s finally gotten over his California trip. He’s matured, he’s gotten strong. He’s back where he should have been.”

Scan scored his first victory as a 3-year-old in a stakes at Belmont Park last month, and then impressively won the Pegasus Handicap at the Meadowlands. He beat some decent rivals, but it was the time of the race -- 1:46 2-5 for 1 1/8 miles -- that verified what a brilliant effort it was. In my system of speed figures, Scan earned a rating of 117.

To put this in perspective, In Excess earned a 116 when he won the Woodward Stakes to establish himself as the favorite for the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Black Tie Affair, another prime contender for the Classic, runs in the range of 108 to 112. Festin got a 114 when he won the Jockey Club Gold Cup last week. Scan is as good as anyone -- and he may still be improving.

Yet Schulhofer said this week he isn’t considering Scan for the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Scan will race in the Meadowlands Cup next week, and then might be entered in the one-mile turf race at the Breeders’ Cup, even though he has never raced on grass before. He won’t aim for the Classic because Schulhofer already has a horse for that race: Fly So Free.

To any handicapper, especially a speed handicapper, this is a preposterous notion: Fly So Free’s best lifetime figure is a 106, suggesting he wouldn’t have a prayer in top company. But Schulhofer still believes Fly So Free is the best 3-year-old in his barn. “I know you all believe in your figures,” he said, “but don’t you think that class has something to do with it?”

No, Scotty, I don’t. I will concede there are many qualities in thoroughbreds that can’t be fully measured by numbers, and that certain individual races may produce times that don’t properly reflect the quality of the horses in them. But by and large, good horses run fast and poor horses run slowly.

When one horse consistently runs faster than another, he is the superior athlete. Scan is unequivocally better than Fly So Free, and he may very well be able to beat In Excess, Festin and others of their quality. He is no cinch, but he would certainly be a great bet at the 35-1 odds that Las Vegas is offering on him in the Classic. Come on Scotty, give him a chance!

“I don’t think you’re going to get to see it,” Schulhofer said.