Bush, GOP Viewed as Big Winners; For Democrats, Missed Opportunity : Politics: The Thomas victory was all the sweeter for the President because it occurred in the domestic arena, where his foes think he is most vulnerable.

The prolonged battle over Supreme Court nominee Clarence Thomas, climaxed by the bizarre debate over sexual harassment charges, represents a hard-earned success for President Bush and the GOP and a blown opportunity for Democrats to undermine Bush’s political base.

For Bush, whose greatest presidential triumphs have been in foreign affairs, the Thomas victory was all the sweeter because it came in the domestic arena, where Democrats have seen their only realistic chance of blocking his reelection drive.

“It reinforces the image of Republican competence,” Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg said of Thomas’ confirmation. “They look like they’re in charge, and know how to handle power.”

Before last weekend’s sexual harassment hearings, Democrats had hoped to use the charges brought against Thomas by law professor and former aide Anita Faye Hill as a wedge to widen the political gender gap. The idea was to dramatize sexual harassment as an example of women’s issues, such as abortion rights and child care, to which Democrats claim to be more sensitive than Republicans.

Indeed, on the eve of the hearings last week, Republican strategists were concerned that, in the words of GOP pollster Neil Newhouse, “Republican women would head South”--away from Bush, to whom they have never been strongly attached.

“I don’t think that happened,” said Ellen Malcolm, president of Emily’s List, a political action committee that funds Democratic women who run for office. Because of the perceived passivity and diffidence of Democratic members of the Senate Judiciary Committee during three days of televised hearings, the Democrats never made their gender gap point to female voters.

“The Democratic senators seemed more concerned about not taking sides than helping back up Anita Hill,” Malcolm said. “It was a depressing weekend.”

“We lost control of our message, if we ever had a message,” said Democratic pollster Celinda Lake. “The Republican senators were a lot more self-confident and determined about what they wanted to get across.”

Republican senators on the committee, notably Utah’s Orrin G. Hatch and Pennsylvania’s Arlen Specter, adhered to White House strategic guidelines by pounding away at Hill’s credibility. Post-hearing opinion polls showing that the public believed Thomas and favored his confirmation testified to the success of their efforts.

“What the White House and the Republicans did was to obfuscate the issue and make it murky,” said Ruth Mandel, director of the nonpartisan Center for the American Woman and Politics at Rutgers University’s Eagleton Institute.

Instead of losing ground, as Democrats had hoped, Bush appeared to have strengthened his ties to key Republican constituency groups. He helped himself with conservatives by continuing to support Thomas in the face of potentially devastating charges that Hatch implied had been concocted by the arch-foes of the GOP right wing: liberal interest groups.

“He didn’t roll over,” conservative consultant Craig Shirley said. “He stuck to his guns.”

Moreover, Republican strategists believe that the President’s steadfast backing of Thomas, along with the nominee’s depiction of himself as an intended victim of a “high-tech lynching,” will help Bush with black voters and with moderate Republicans concerned about civil rights issues.

“This will insulate him against the standard Willie Horton type of attack,” said Newhouse, the Republican pollster, referring to Democratic criticism of Bush for allegedly exploiting the politics of race. Such criticism dates back to the 1988 presidential campaign, when Bush made a major issue of a furlough granted to Horton, a black convict, under a program defended by Democratic nominee Michael S. Dukakis.

In the 1992 campaign, Shirley expects that Republicans will try to woo black voters with the message: “Don’t forget it was liberal Democrats who tried to dump Clarence Thomas.” Over the long run, the Thomas controversy could make blacks more receptive to conservative beliefs. “I would think the hearings were a cultural event of some importance for the black community,” said Democratic pollster Greenberg. “I think it was the first time that any of them had seen so many prominent black conservatives in action.”

Another likely byproduct of the confirmation hearings is an intensification of anti-incumbent feeling in the country--more bad news for the Democrats, who hold majorities in both the House and Senate. “I think this just adds to the general feeling that Washington and Congress don’t have anything to do with the real life of the voters,” said Republican consultant Ladonna Lee, who believes that the Thomas case can be used to help build support for a nationwide drive to limit terms of state and federal officeholders.

While the Democrats as a party appeared to lose more than they gained from the Thomas case, some analysts believe that the furor will help the cause of feminism with which the party is closely linked. For one thing, noted pollster Lake, it will help focus attention on the issue of sexual harassment.

In addition, said Malcolm of Emily’s List, the case will encourage women to become more active politically. “My phone has been ringing off the hook with women calling who are desperate to have an impact on the political process,” she said. “I think that’s going to translate into election results.”