THE TIMES POLL : Mexicans Like Leader Despite the Economy

President Carlos Salinas de Gortari, whose mission is to propel Mexico into the First World through free enterprise and free trade, enjoys tremendous popular support, even though most people say the economy remains weak, halfway through his six-year term.

According to a Los Angeles Times Poll, 83% of Mexicans believe that Salinas is doing a good job and 77% approve of the way he is handling the economy.

But when asked about their own finances, Mexicans are much less enthusiastic. Just 36% of those surveyed said they are better off today than when Salinas took office amid a prolonged economic crisis; 30% said they are worse off; 33% said their situation is the same as in 1988.

As for the future, 46% of those interviewed said they expect to be better off by the end of Salinas’ term, compared with 20% who feel they will be in worse shape and 22% who foresee no change.

“In the big picture, the government claims that things are going well,” said Miguel Basanez, whose polling firm, Prospectiva Estrategica, conducted the survey for The Times. “But that has not yet translated into good things in the pockets of most people. Inflation has calmed down and we have more foreign investment but not improvements in employment and real wages.”

He added that extensive propaganda on pro-government television has greatly enhanced Salinas’ positive image.

But other political observers said that Salinas’ decisive nature and his aggressive program to restructure the economy have earned him such broad support.

“Mexicans want their tlatoani, their emperor,” said Adrian Lajous, a political columnist for the Mexico City newspaper Excelsior. “There is a captain whose hand is firmly on the tiller, who knows what he wants and where he is going. People agree with most of the things he is doing--with some because they are reasonable and with others because they are following their leader.”

The Times Poll of 1,546 Mexicans was conducted between Sept. 11 and Oct. 2 in 189 communities across Mexico. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points, said Times Poll Director John Brennan.

Although Salinas claims strong support across the board, he is most popular among the wealthy, who expect to fare best under his leadership. An overwhelming 91% of the well-to-do give Salinas a positive job rating, compared with 78% of the poor. In all, 19% gave him a rating of “very good,” 64% said “good,” 10% said “bad” and 3% said “very bad.”

Mexican presidents typically are popular in the first half of their terms, when people judge them on promises. But their support fades in the last three years, if expectations go unmet. Salinas will find it hard to sustain his high mid-term rating unless his economic reforms pay off for most Mexicans.

Three out of five people surveyed by The Times believe the economy is weak.

Asked “how things are going in Mexico these days,” Mexicans were split evenly; 48% said “well” and 48% said “badly.”

Describing their own economic situation today compared with three years ago, half of the well-to-do said they are better off, 18% said they are worse off. But only 30% of the poor said they are doing better and 35% said they are worse off.

By the end of Salinas’ term, 61% of the affluent expect to be better off, compared with 36% of the poor with such expectations.

More than half of those who said they support Salinas mentioned his multibillion-dollar social welfare program, called Solidarity, as one of the reasons. A third of those interviewed said they or a family member had benefited personally from Solidarity, which provides electricity, water works, land titles, farm credits and other services.

Financed by the sale of state enterprises, Solidarity was designed to alleviate the effects of layoffs and depressed salaries that are part of the economic recovery plan. It also was intended to help the ruling Institutional Revolutionary Party recover some of the support it lost throughout the economic crisis of the 1980s.

Apparently it has worked. The PRI, as the official party is called, has a better image and more adherents than it did in a similar Times Poll in 1989 when just a third of the people interviewed called themselves priistas and just one in six termed themselves strong PRI backers.

Now, nearly half those polled claim allegiance to the PRI, and a quarter are strongly committed to the party. The PRI maintains a plurality in all social groups.

The opposition, on the other hand, appears moribund. The conservative National Action Party got 12% backing--virtually identical to its 15% party identification in the previous Times Poll. The number of sympathizers with the left-of-center Democratic Revolutionary Party has dropped from 15% to 7%. Nearly a third of the population still claims no party allegiance.

Cuauhtemoc Cardenas, leader of the Democratic Revolutionary Party who nearly upset Salinas in the 1988 election, has lost some support, declining from a 50% approval rating in The Times 1989 survey to 39% today; 26% view him unfavorably.

The drop may be explained by several factors, including the fact that Cardenas rarely is given time on television. Also, his young party has been hurt by public infighting and several high-level defections.

About two-thirds of the people said they believe opposition parties will be a serious challenge to the PRI sometime in the future, but only a quarter expect them to be viable by the next presidential and congressional elections in 1994. Another quarter said the PRI will never have real opposition.

Salinas has been far more aggressive in reforming the nation’s economy than its political system, which has been dominated by the PRI for 62 years. Yet the president has convinced nearly half the people that Mexico is becoming more democratic, though they remain divided on his motives.

While 37% of those polled said they believe Salinas wants democracy no matter what the consequences, about a third said he wants only those democratic changes that will strengthen him and the PRI; 9% said he wanted no changes at all.

Mexico’s Biggest Problems

Here are the country’s most important concerns, according to a survey of 1,546 Mexicans:

Economy and Jobs: 41%

Inflation: 32%

Pollution: 12%

Foreign Debt: 10%

Corruption and Fraud: 10%

Source: Los Angeles Times Poll