New Monthly Survey Casts Doubt on San Diego Economy

The premiere issue of a monthly survey of leading local economic indicators compiled by University of San Diego economics professor Alan Gin reinforces previous statements by economists who doubt that San Diego County’s economy is strong enough to escape the recession that has stalled Southern California.

Indicators have “fluctuated wildly” in recent months, suggesting that the local recession is far from over, Gin said Monday.

The three leading segments of San Diego’s economy--defense-related businesses, tourism and construction--have been hit hard during the economic slowdown. “I would think that the local economy is going to lag the national economy because of the heavy emphasis (locally) on military spending . . . and the (stalled) building industry,” Gin said.

Gin’s index of economic indicators includes three decidedly local measurements and three national indicators. The local indicators include: building permits authorized in San Diego County, new claims for unemployment insurance in the county and an index of local tourist activity. National figures include manufacturers’ new orders for defense products, a compilation of stock prices and money supply figures.

Fluctuations in recent months suggest that the county’s economy remains mired in the recession that continues to stall California’s economy, Gin said.

“This index works sort of like the national leading economic indicators,” Gin said. “The turning point would be three consecutive moves in one direction. So, if the local economy records three consecutive increases, that would indicate we’re going out of the recession.”