Merchandise Trade Deficit Steady in September : Commerce: Exports of U.S. goods were at near-record levels, while imports surged to the highest point in 11 months.
The nation’s deficit in merchandise trade with the rest of the world was $6.79 billion in September, virtually unchanged from the $6.76 billion August deficit that the Commerce Department reported a month ago.
Exports of U.S. goods were at near-record levels for the month, while imports jumped to the highest level in 11 months.
September’s exports of $35.43 billion, surpassed only by April’s peak of $35.63 billion, showed increases in the high-value manufactured products in which U.S. industry is once again competitive: capital goods, primarily aircraft and high-technology products, and automobiles and parts. The trade surplus in high-technology products widened slightly from $2.3 billion in August to $2.9 billion in September.
At the same time, Commerce Department statisticians revised earlier reported August exports upward by $2.15 billion to $34.38 billion, lowering that month’s deficit to $6.53 billion.
Imports, however, surged in September to $42.22 billion, the highest level since November last year and well above the recessionary levels recorded last winter and spring. The import increases were led by consumer goods, up $900 million, and capital goods, up $400 million, as importers, retailers and manufacturers apparently made provisions for an economic recovery in which both domestic consumption and manufacturing would resume growth.
Indeed, Commerce Secretary Robert W. Mosbacher, while applauding the strong export showing of U.S. industry in a statement greeting the trade report, also found encouragement in the surging imports. They reflected, he said, “a growing U.S. economy, with strong purchases by Americans of consumer and capital goods and industrial supplies and materials.”
Outside economists were less willing to link the unexpected upward bump in imports to a recovery. “This suggests a stronger economy than we have seen evidence for,” said Allen Sinai of Boston Co. in New York. “The only possible explanation is that the September imports are related to a stock-up for Christmas selling.” The result, he said, could show up in strong third-quarter economic growth. But much of the gain also could simply be in inventories that consumers will be unwilling to buy.
There was general agreement, however, that the export picture remains strong. With the strong export push in September, Sinai said, U.S. merchandise exports have increased over the July-September quarter at an annual rate of 5.3%--”not a boom, but essential if we are not to fall back into recession.” He predicted that imports would dwindle with weakening resolve of consumers to buy and that a weak dollar would help keep the exports flowing.
In September, Western Europe was a strong customer for U.S. goods, and the U.S. trade surplus with Europe widened to $1.3 billion last month from $700 million in August. The surplus with Western Europe so far this year is $12.78 billion, compared to $3.01 billion through the third quarter of 1990.
Chronic deficits with Taiwan and South Korea have declined, to $7.02 billion and $1.05 billion, respectively, through September, compared to $8.50 billion and $3.33 billion for the same period a year ago.
But the most intractable and politically explosive deficit--with Japan--has not improved at all in absolute terms and has become far more of a problem in relative terms. Through September, 1990, the deficit with Japan was $29.52 billion. This year, that has grown marginally to $30.92 billion.
