Dip in Tax Revenue Forces County to Weigh More Trims in Services

Slumping tax revenues this fall have stripped the county government of about $15 million, forcing officials to contemplate cuts in county services when the Board of Supervisors takes up its midyear budget next month.

In particular, health-care and welfare programs may be reduced because sales tax revenue paying for those programs has dropped $5 million below projections.

Other county services could also be on the block as the government scrambles to cope with a recession longer and deeper than most economists had predicted.

Those warnings--from the county administrative office and its auditor controller--were shared Thursday in briefings with department heads and aides to the supervisors. After the meetings, several of those who had attended called the outlook bleak.

“There’s definitely nothing in all of this to be optimistic about,” said one board aide who asked not to be identified. “It’s all down.”

Ronald S. Rubino, the county’s budget director, was more cautious, saying there remains a chance for the numbers to improve after the holidays. But he agreed that current projections spell bad news for county programs.

“If October, November, December are as bad as July, August and September, we’re in the toilet,” Rubino said. “We know we have a problem, and we are just getting started dealing with it.”

The projected shortfalls in tax revenue come at a particularly trying time for the county government, which just three months ago completed a grueling budget process that resulted in cuts to many government services, in a bid to close a $67-million shortfall. More than 200 county jobs were eliminated to balance this year’s $3.2-billion budget, though just a handful of county workers were actually laid off.

Supervisor Harriett M. Wieder said she was in dental surgery most of the day and did not know about the budget briefings. But she suggested that the board “might have to retract some salary increases that we made.”

She referred to the 4% across-the-board raise given to county management personnel. Wieder’s chief of staff, Sandy Ward, said deeper cuts would require cooperation of unions representing county personnel.

Even before officials learned of the shortfall unveiled this week, the outlook for county finances was expected to be grim in June.

In addition to falling revenues from sales taxes, property taxes and motor vehicle fees, the county is falling short of its projections from a jail booking fee. That fee, which took effect July 1 despite municipal opposition, charges cities $154 for every inmate they have booked into the county jail system.

Many cities have reacted to the fee by changing procedures for booking inmates. That saves them money but has left the county roughly $1 million short of money it had counted on to make ends meet this year.

Auditor-Controller Steven E. Lewis wrote to the county administrative office Nov. 18 to update officials there on the declining revenues. Lewis said county officials may need to make cuts now to prevent the government from facing huge shortfalls in June, when the current fiscal year ends.

“There are some big problems next year,” Lewis said. “The county is not going to be broke on June 30, but to the degree that (officials) can do something about it now, they need to.”

While a dramatic turnaround in the economy could still brighten the outlook for the county budget, few officials hold much hope for that.

“We’re not seeing any kind of booming recovery,” Rubino said. “This thing is not turning around in the first quarter of 1992. I’m looking at late ’92 and possibly not at all in ’92.”

The supervisors will formally receive the midyear budget update Dec. 17 but are not expected to make any cuts until early next year.

Times staff writer Leslie Berkman contributed to this story.