BASEBALL / ROSS NEWHAN : Claire Willing to Roll the Dice

Fred Claire made his debut as general manager of the Dodgers at the winter meetings of 1988 and was quickly accused of holding that convention hostage.

He had the one commodity everyone seemed to want--the proven pitcher, Bob Welch--but created the impression that he was unsure what to do with him.

The Oakland Athletics, Toronto Blue Jays and New York Mets hammered longest and loudest at Claire’s door--and resolve--without apparent success. Claire, some said, was out of his element, afraid to pull the trigger.

Ultimately, he traded Welch to the A’s for Jay Howell and Alfredo Griffin. That deal was the first in a series of salvos that has removed any doubt about Claire’s willingness to pull the trigger.

A game of risks, he has called it, and Wednesday he took his biggest yet:

--By holding the line and offering Eddie Murray only a one-year contract, he opened the door for Murray to sign a two-year deal with the New York Mets. Claire’s decision angered several Dodger veterans because it removed a stabilizing influence from the clubhouse and the last measure of defensive stability from an infield now virtually unproven at every position.

--Then, in a blockbuster trade, Claire strengthened the bargaining position of free agents Orel Hershiser and Mike Morgan, whose re-signings seemed to become mandatory, when Tim Belcher was removed from an already suspect rotation and sent to the Cincinnati Reds. For Belcher, the Dodgers got Eric Davis, whose superstar status has been diluted by injuries to the point that he is a risk in himself.

Now some are saying that the man once perceived as afraid to pull it has gone trigger-happy, that he served up the turkey a day early.

Time will tell, of course.

Time will tell if Claire has taken too big a risk with his infield and pitching, if his beleaguered farm system is finally ready to fill holes, if it is possible to remain a contender while making economically motivated decisions on personnel, a reality of baseball in the ‘90s.

The Dodgers finished a game behind the Atlanta Braves in the National League West. Now Murray and Belcher are gone, Hershiser and Morgan may follow, and Claire has said he does not intend to re-sign either Alfredo Griffin or Juan Samuel.

Ultimately, the $35-million payroll will be reduced. And the Dodgers’ chances along with it?

Risk has its reward, and Davis looms as the key, a one-man response to all of the questions, all of those ifs.

Potentially . . .

--Davis, operating in left field, joins Brett Butler and boyhood pal Darryl Strawberry to form what could be the strongest outfield in baseball.

--He provides right-handed balance to a team that had the National League’s lowest batting average against left-handed pitchers last year--”left-handers won’t pound the Dodgers as they did down the stretch,” Davis said in a conference call Wednesday. And Davis significantly improves team speed.

The issue is health and resiliency. Davis has put up some of baseball’s most impressive statistics, and some of the most disturbing. Among the latter: He has been on the disabled list in each of the last three years and did not appear in more than 135 games in any of his six seasons with the Reds.

This year, claiming fatigue because of the kidney injury he suffered in the World Series, he appeared in only 89 games, hitting 11 home runs and driving in 33 runs. Those totals, two years before, were 34 and 101.

Davis said Wednesday that he didn’t get proper advice from the Reds’ medical staff or management regarding possible ramifications of his kidney injury.

“If I had been told that my health could deteriorate by playing right away I would have sat out the start of the season,” he said. “But we were coming off the World Series and I felt I had to play. I didn’t know the risks.”

Said agent Eric Goldschmidt: “You have to throw out last year. He simply shouldn’t have tried to play with the severity of that injury. You have to look at what he did previously when he generally played 130 to 135 games on the turf and in often extreme cold and heat. Eric is an aggressive player. He was always crashing into fences or diving on that hard surface. What effect the grass and good weather will have, we’ll find out, but I think it will be significant.”

Why not? Davis, 29, in his prime. If he didn’t leave his legs on the synthetic surface of Riverfront Stadium, he should be invigorated by the grass, the weather, the reduced demands of left field compared to center and, of course, the homecoming and reunion with Strawberry.

They had dreamed it, discussed it, dismissed it as too far-fetched, Davis said. Now, it’s a reality.

“I couldn’t be happier and I couldn’t be healthier,” Davis said. “I’m working out every day and haven’t felt this good in a long time.”

He is also approaching the final year of his three-year, $9.3-million contract and said he would like to get the future resolved before the 1992 season starts, another risk to this trade, but he is likely to find it easier dealing with the Dodgers than Marge Schott, owner of the Reds.

Davis said Wednesday that he will remember only the good times in Cincinnati, where Barry Larkin had been quietly pleading with Reds’ management not to trade Davis, while in Los Angeles, Strawberry had been privately lobbying Claire to pull the trigger.

Did Claire shoot himself in the foot this time, further decimating the Dodgers’ defense and threatening that pitching tradition? The guns of August will provide that answer.