Government Predicts ’92 Economic Rebound : Industry: The Commerce Department sees 3% growth next year--a pickup characterized as moderate.

U.S. industry, both manufacturing and services, will revive and grow stronger next year after two years of weakness, the Commerce Department predicted Monday.

“The overall picture is one of moderate growth,” said Michael Farren, Undersecretary of Commerce for International Trade. The forecast takes in 350 industries.

“Although a few industries will show rapid growth, most will grow moderately,” Farren said.

Manufactured shipments should grow about 2.6% after adjusting for inflation, he said. That compares to an estimated decline of 1.9% this year and a drop of 0.1% in 1990.

The estimates are based on a forecast of 3% economic growth overall, which officials concede is optimistic. Most economists believe that the economy will grow about 2.2% next year.

Unlike previous years, the department said, no particular set of industries is likely to do exceptionally well, leading the overall economy.

The only possible exception is health care, an industry that continues to be strong regardless of the business cycle, the department said.

Service industries should outperform manufacturing industries, thanks to a spurt in information services, it said.

“Industries such as electronic information, data processing and computer professional services should all experience double-digit growth ranging from 13.5% to 20%,” the department said.

Trade will play an important role, especially in higher-growth industries.

The department estimated export growth at 6% to 7%, the same range as 1991.

The rate, which is below growth rates experienced in 1989 and 1990, reflects weakness in important foreign markets, particularly Japan and Germany. To some extent, this is being offset by growth in exports to a recovering Mexico.

Imports, however, also are expected to grow next year as the economy grows modestly.

Therefore, the department forecast that the trade deficit, which is expected to hit $65 billion this year, will “flatten out or get marginally worse next year.” It was $101 billion in 1990.

Among major manufacturing industries, motor vehicles and parts, metalworking equipment and household consumer durables top the list of the fastest growing sectors.

The report offered hope for the embattled auto industry.

New-car sales are forecast to be 8.9 million vehicles, a 7% increase over the 8.3 million in 1991.

“The auto industry will be fueled by pent-up demand and the need to replace a large volume of six- to 12-year-old cars,” Farren said.

Consumer goods in general are expected to pick up next year. Shipments of durable goods, such as household appliances and furniture, are expected to rise 4%.

The hard-hit computer industry should also show a recovery, as will machine tools, which have been down for two years.

Commercial real estate will continue to be a drag on the economy, although residential construction should be more positive, with housing starts growing 12%.

Industry Growth Rates The Commerce Department has projected growth rates for selected industry groups in 1991 and 1992. The department said the figures for 1991 are estimates and the 1992 data are forecasts.

Industry 1991 1992 New construction -5.6 0.2 Construction materials -4.5 -1.2 Food and beverages 0.8 1.5 Wood products -4.3 2.3 Paper, allied products 0.7 2.2 Printing and publishing -1.0 2.5 Chemicals, allied products 0.6 1.4 Plastic and rubber products -2.4 3.0 Steel mill products -10.0 3.9 Metalworking equipment -9.2 5.0 Computers and peripherals -2.1 4.3 Industrial machinery -1.8 2.2 Radio communications and detection equipment 0.3 5.0 Electronic components 3.0 4.7 Motor vehicles and parts -8.3 7.5 Electrical equipment -1.2 0.8 Aerospace -4.2 -3.4 Scientific, medical equipment 2.9 3.8 Household consumer durables -2.6 4.9