MOVIES : Crystal Ball Time : The studios are peering into a cloudy 1992 with the lessons of 1991 in mind; the problem is: What do the lessons mean?

As Hollywood heads into the new year, there are two ways to look at the state of the industry:

The total American box-office results for 1991 are both the third-best ever . . . or the second consecutive year of a downturn.

1991 was the year the American economic recession caught up with freewheeling Hollywood. The cost of moviegoing became more than many people could afford and, as a consequence, audiences were even more selective. Or stayed at home and rented movies.

Still, the picture wasn’t all that bad--not when the year had several months of record-setting business, offset by dry spells in mid-spring and autumn.

A survey of some of the film industry’s top executives reveals they are somewhat divided on how to interpret the box-office results of 1991 and what those results mean for the coming year. But they are of similar mind when it comes to keeping costs down and hedging their bets with marketable concepts that will not only work in America, but abroad, where the popularity of American films is virtually unchallenged.

Looking at last year’s mixed results and the new year’s prospects, 20th Century Fox Film Corp. Chairman Joe Roth quipped: “There is no reason for optimism and there is no reason for pessimism.”

“Recessions don’t come and go by the month,” said Warner Bros. President and Chief Operating Officer Terry Semel. “(Last year’s) small box-office decline, which adds up to roughly $150 million in grosses, can be attributed to the lack of one more major, mass appeal movie.” With just one more big hit, or a few more moderate hits, 1991 could have ended up even with, or better than 1990, Semel suggested.

Semel wasn’t complaining about last year--far from it. Led by the $165 million-grossing “Robin Hood: Prince of Thieves,” starring Kevin Costner, Warner Bros. wound up sitting atop the list of the major movie distributors. It owned 14% of the industry’s market share last year, out of 10 major players.

But the sobering reality for the business was that the estimated grosses of $4.8 billion were down about 3% from the $5 billion collected in both 1989 and 1990. And the 968 million tickets sold during 1991 would be off 8% from the previous year, to a 15-year low, according to estimates made by the entertainment newspaper Daily Variety.

There were other signs of trouble. In a town where such amenities mean a lot, major restaurants reported a slowdown in the expensive “let’s do lunch” trade during the year. And agents acknowledged that if you weren’t Julia Roberts, Tom Cruise, Kevin Costner, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Michael Douglas or a very rare group of others, you were looking at lower salaries.

The number of films in production declined, as money for independent movies became more difficult to obtain, and some of the major studios cut back on production. Compared to 1991, when well over 400 movies were listed in Calendar’s Sneaks ’91 issue, today’s Sneaks ’92 edition contains about 300 titles to be released this year.

Sony Pictures Entertainment Chairman Peter Guber said his company is trimming costs wherever possible. But he acknowledged that the company, which this year released one of the year’s costliest movies, “Hook,” will continue to offer big-budget fare along with more modestly priced movies.

“You can’t make every picture for the same price, you just can’t do it,” he said. “No one says, ‘Let’s go to the Bruin Theater, I hear there’s a movie playing that came in on budget.’ ”

The 1991 results don’t daunt Fox chairman Roth. His projections for the company’s current fiscal year, which ends June 30, are for it to be the second best ever--last year, when it had huge profits from “Home Alone” and “Die Hard 2,” was the best.

“The numbers mean that you have to be more cautious, “ Roth said. “It makes it more difficult to greenlight a film. You have to have an objective eye about the commercial aspects of a film and you need to have a clear marketing plan and believe you know who will come to see it.”

Among the bigger movies Fox has on its 24-picture agenda are “Alien 3,” “The Last of the Mohicans,” starring Daniel Day Lewis, and “Home Alone 2.” Roth said those films will be offset by at least eight films that are picked up from other producers for distribution, as well as smaller movies like “My Cousin Vinny,” with Joe Pesci, the animated environmental-themed movie “Ferngully” and “Night and the City,” with Jessica Lange and Robert De Niro.

Roth has held the line on Fox’s share of the cost of “Hoffa,” which will star Jack Nicholson and Danny DeVito. The movie’s budget had been growing and Roth was able to get DeVito’s company to help underwrite a portion of the costs, a Fox spokesman said.

“A balanced hand,” is the way Warners’ Semel describes his planning for the roughly 22 releases the company will send into the marketplace this year. “You’re always betting on a mixture of product and (need) to take certain risks from time to time.”

On Warners’ big-budget list are two major sequels to very successful films, “Batman Returns” and “Lethal Weapon 3,” plus a major star vehicle for Clint Eastwood, “Unforgiven.” On the smaller side are such films as “The Mambo Kings,” and leveraged risks in distribution of Morgan Creek Prods.’ “Freejack” and New Regency Prods.’ “Memoirs of an Invisible Man.”

Universal Pictures was in an austerity mode for much of last year and studio Chairman Tom Pollock said that will continue into this year. The studio’s 1992 slate contains only two big-budget movies, “Far and Away,” starring Tom Cruise and produced by Imagine Films, and “Death Becomes Her,” starring Meryl Streep, Goldie Hawn and Bruce Willis.

“No one is out looking to make expensive movies,” Pollock said. “You’re looking to make good movies on subjects that you hope are commercial with talent you believe in.”

When the industry’s official 1991 figures are released in February by the Motion Picture Assn. of America, it’s reasonably likely that the average cost of making a movie will turn out to be lower than the $26 million average in 1990, said Jack Valenti, president of the Motion Picture Assn. of America. .

The lower average figure will reflect lower budgeted movies from major studios, a move that began a year ago this month with the now-famous memo from Walt Disney Studios Chairman Jeffrey Katzenberg.

Katzenberg cautioned against reliance on big-budget productions like Disney’s own “Dick Tracy,” which, he said, can drain company resources. And how true that proved to be, ironically for Disney itself, which produced the costly “The Rocketeer” and “Billy Bathgate,” both of which slumbered at the box office during 1991.

(As if to underline the industry’s financial crunch, Katzenberg’s boss, Walt Disney Co. Chairman Michael Eisner, took a cut in his bonuses, which are tied to the company’s performance. The entertainment industry’s highest-paid executive, Eisner had to make do in 1991 with half the $10.48 million he received for 1990.)

But by mid-year, modestly budgeted films such as Columbia Pictures’ “Boyz N the Hood” began showing up in theaters, and in November Paramount Pictures released “All I Want for Christmas”--which was pushed into the market by new Paramount Chairman Brandon Tartikoff in an unusually brief four months of production for $12 million.

To date, “Christmas” has grossed $14.8 million in theatrical release (it stands to make much more off of video and international markets), and several executives at rival companies are contemplating similar no-frills projects.

This year’s first hit movie, “The Hand That Rocks the Cradle,” from Disney’s Hollywood Pictures division, reportedly also had a budget of $12 million. One Disney source said the studio will continue to take a “multi-level” approach in its spending. The upcoming “Encino Man,” will cost $7 million, while the Eddie Murphy film “Distinguished Gentleman” will cost in the high 20s.

But even as the average cost of future movie budgets were beginning to decline, two of the most expensive feature films ever made were released last year--the special effects-laden, $90 million-plus “Terminator 2: Judgment Day” from Carolco Pictures, which opened in July, and Steven Spielberg’s $60 million-plus “Hook” at Christmas.

“Terminator 2,” starring Arnold Schwarzenegger, raced to the $204-million mark in box-office gross, making it the year’s box-office champ in the United States. It has grossed $275 million to date in overseas markets, and is selling wildly in the home video market. “Terminator 2” looks to make money for Carolco distributor TriStar Pictures, which takes its distribution fee off the top.

But the flip side is that the tidal wave of “Terminator 2” income for Carolco didn’t settle that company’s future. Despite producing the year’s box-office champ, and such previous blockbusters as the “Rambo” series, the big-spending film maker found itself engulfed in a slew of financial problems.

Things are so bad for the company that it could be forced into bankruptcy if it’s unable to reach a financial restructuring agreement. Carolco has said that it plans to cut film production in half, to only a couple of films a year. Its 1992 slate includes “Basic Instinct,” the Charlie Chaplin biography “Charlie” and “Universal Soldier.”

David Colden, an entertainment attorney, said last year’s cost-cutting efforts at all the companies should continue well into this year, despite the strong psychological boost the industry received from the holiday season’s hit films.

“The attitude is still one of cost control,” Colden said. “There will be a reticence in the near future to commit to a motion picture the size of ‘Hook,’ notwithstanding its success. There are two reasons for that: The majors have expressed their interest in cost cutting and are following the Disney model in that respect. And the biggest spender is not spending anymore--and that would be Carolco.”

The significant shift in movie making toward the international market--the massive audience that has made Arnold Schwarzenegger the biggest attraction in the world--is the silver lining to be found in the current movie business, says Valenti. After a decade of major growth in the U.S. home video market, Valenti acknowledged that the market is no longer expanding at the rate it once was.

Still, he said, “No other American product is in more demand, by more people in more nations.” Unlike other products, major “American movies are first in Japan,” he said. “The country is our biggest foreign market.”

The importance was visible one recent night amid the clubby atmosphere of Chasen’s--the old-time movie business hangout in Beverly Hills.

Among the many guests were Warren Beatty, Barbra Streisand, Dustin Hoffman and Nick Nolte, all there to attend a party given by Sony’s Peter Guber. But it was not the usual charity benefit or movie premiere. It was for a contingent of executives from the company’s international distribution wing, which handles the movies from Sony’s twin studios, Columbia Pictures and TriStar Pictures.

The fact that such name celebrities would attend the party underscores the growing recognition of the international market for American movies. The visiting executives were feted at a cocktail party and dinner, and got the chance to schmooze with the stars from several recent Sony movies.

The international box office has been good to Sony this year. In addition to its own films, the company has the foreign distribution rights to “The Addams Family” and “The Silence of the Lambs.” Studio officials even insist that the Bruce Willis vehicle “Hudson Hawk,” widely perceived as one of last year’s biggest bombs, will make its money back abroad.

Guber said that Sony expects “Hook” to do phenomenal business overseas, thanks to the drawing power of its stars and director Spielberg. They are anticipating total box-office revenues worldwide of more than $250 million, he said.

That would fit in with the contention of the MPAA’s Valenti, who said that the international market accounts for a growing portion of movie revenues. That is, in turn, supported by the results released by the American Film Marketing Assn., representing independent film producers. Its report showed international gross revenues increasing 6 percent to $1.2 billion in 1991.

The world view is why Sony Corp., the Japanese electronics giant that purchased Columbia and TriStar for $3.4 billion in 1989, remains committed to an ambitious production schedule this year and beyond, Guber said.

Columbia’s slate includes the Francis Ford Coppola production of “Bram Stoker’s Dracula” and director Penny Marshall’s “A League of Their Own.” Columbia also will distribute Castle Rock Entertainment’s “A Few Good Men,” starring Tom Cruise and Jack Nicholson.

In addition to Carolco Pictures’ “Basic Instinct,” starring Michael Douglas, and Sir Richard Attenborough’s “Charlie,” TriStar also has a Woody Allen film slated for fall release.

According to some of the executives, one recent trend is more first-time star directors, who may work for deferred salaries.

With the success of “The Prince of Tides,” directed by Streisand, Guber said Sony is open to more star-directed or produced films. “It’s an appropriate extrapolation of their talent,” Guber said. “I welcome that. It doesn’t necessarily mean it’s the panacea or the formula for success.”

Universal has Edward James Olmos’ “American Me,” due early this year, and Robert De Niro is set to make his directing debut in “A Bronx Tale.”

“There’s hardly an actor around that we haven’t talked to about directing,” said one studio chief. “It comes up all the time. Because of the industry’s economic problems, studios may be more interested in talking to actors about directing, because it means they take less star money.”

Other changes may be in store for this year.

Cash-strapped Orion filed for reorganization under Chapter 11 of the federal bankruptcy code late last year. The company has since heard from several possible business partners, including New Line Cinema, another independent production company.

The New York-based Orion says it hopes to release most of its 12 completed films later this year as a bankruptcy court sorts out its affairs. Those films include Woody Allen’s “Shadows and Fog.” But the company halted production a year ago, and its status as a filmmaker remains cloudy.

Meanwhile, the future of Hollywood’s icon studio, the once-dominant Metro-Goldwyn-Mayer, is a question mark. MGM was the subject of a major custody battle last year between Giancarlo Parretti, its principal stockholder, and Credit Lyonnais, the French bank that backed Parretti when he purchased the studio for $1.3 billion in 1990. Last month, a Delaware judge awarded control of the company to Credit Lyonnais.

The big question now is how much support the legendary studio will receive. Chairman Alan Ladd had a bad year at the box office in 1991, with the exception of “Thelma & Louise.” This year, the studio is releasing the remake of the 1939 Hal Roach movie “Of Mice and Men,” starring John Malkovich, and “Rich in Love,” produced by Richard and Lili Fini Zanuck.

Given the economic realities and the historical truth that Hollywood is only big enough for about seven major film distributors, the time may have arrived for a weeding out of companies.

But Ladd has said he expects the bank to continue to fund future film production while the bank itself is widely believed to be searching for a buyer for the studio.