Winds of Change to Sweep Over Congressional Lineup : Politics: California will send at least 13 new members to the House. Substantial gains for GOP seen in state’s delegation.

With a record 52 House seats at stake and an anti-incumbent breeze stirring across the state, the 1992 elections appear destined to bring sweeping changes to the California delegation in Congress.

Many experts predict a statewide political make-over that will produce a startling number of new faces as well as a partisan shift likely to favor Republicans. At least 13 new lawmakers--more than the entire congressional delegations of 41 states--will be elected in California this year to fill new or vacant seats.

“The whole complexion of the delegation can change when 25% of the seats have new people,” said Herbert E. Alexander, professor of political science at USC. “That is a big bite.”

Whether such an overhaul would alleviate the longstanding problem of a fractious delegation deeply divided along partisan lines is unclear. Some argue that, with as many as 20 competitive House races, the elections could yield increasingly moderate lawmakers who may bring a touch of harmony to the congressional delegation.

Much of the anticipated upheaval is attributable to new political boundaries adopted last week by the state Supreme Court. Under the reapportionment plan designed to reflect population shifts in the 1990 census, California gained seven congressional districts, boosting its delegation to 52 members--12% of the entire House.

“By virtue of being the largest delegation in the history of the republic, we will have the potential to enhance our ability to get things done for California,” said Rep. David Dreier (R-La Verne).

The redrawn lines are expected to net substantial gains for Republicans, now outnumbered by Democrats, 26-19. They also threaten the future of several influential Democratic veterans.

Shifting political winds also could carry to Capitol Hill half a dozen state legislators whose Sacramento careers soon will be cut short by voter-approved term limits. And at least four sons and daughters of prominent California politicians are contemplating a run for Congress in the June 2 primary.

Although the redistricting plan was crafted to benefit minorities seeking seats in Congress, only one new formidable Latino candidate is vying for Congress so far and no additional black or Asian-American representatives are considered likely to be elected.

“It’s a sad situation,” said Arturo Vargas, director of outreach and policy for the Mexican American Legal Defense and Educational Fund in Los Angeles. “It points to the fact that there are lots and lots of other institutional barriers to participation in the political process.”

For the past decade, Republicans found themselves without any realistic hope of winning a majority of seats in the California delegation, despite making strong gains in voter registration. This was because of the 1982 reapportionment when Gov. Edmund G. (Jerry) Brown Jr., in his last days in office, approved a plan crafted by the late Rep. Phil Burton to give Democrats a hefty advantage.

The Burton map created reservoirs of Republican resentment. But the GOP was comforted this year when Republican Gov. Pete Wilson vetoed plans approved by the Democratic-controlled Legislature. The task fell to the state Supreme Court.

Last week, the justices voted 6 to 1 to adopt a new plan--prepared by a group of special masters appointed by the court--that gives Republicans a shot at seizing a majority of the congressional seats for the first time since 1956.

“The net result is they are undoing a lot of . . . the Burton plan,” said Rep. Jerry Lewis (R-Redlands). “Many of the districts are more competitive than they have been, and the seven new seats supply very significant Republican opportunities.”

After enjoying a solid majority for the past decade, Democrats are bracing for possible disaster.

“I think Phil Burton came back and was reincarnated as a Republican,” said Rep. Don Edwards (D-San Jose), dean of the California Democrats in the House. “That is how bad the map is.”

Edwards acknowledged, however, that the court plan is not as “radical” as the Burton version. He said that the congressional delegation could wind up evenly split between the two parties.

Especially devastating for Democrats is the potential threat to some of the state’s most influential congressmen:

* Rep. Vic Fazio (D-Sacramento), a key member of the Democratic House leadership, faces a stiff challenge in his newly competitive 3rd District from Republican former state Sen. H.L. Richardson. Fazio, 49, is the youngest of the 13 appropriations subcommittee chairmen--and one of only three from California--who control the House purse strings.

Richardson, an archconservative, can be counted on to tap his close ties to the National Rifle Assn. to raise nearly $1 million. As a result, Fazio said, he will likely need $1.5 million to defend his seat.

* Rep. Norman Y. Mineta (D-San Jose), a leading authority on highway legislation as chairman of the surface transportation subcommittee, was given a 15th District that ordinarily would lean Republican. But so far no formidable Republican candidate has emerged to oppose the popular ex-San Jose mayor.

* Rep. George E. Brown Jr. (D-Colton), chairman of the Science, Space and Technology Committee, could face a tough rematch with Republican Bob Hammock, who won 47% of the vote in 1990 in a district that will be slightly more Republican this time around.

* Rep. Anthony C. Beilenson (D-Los Angeles), a 16-year veteran, is the lone endangered Los Angeles-area incumbent in a newly created district that spans the west San Fernando Valley and part of eastern Ventura County. As a senior member of the Rules Committee, Beilenson plays an important role in shepherding California issues through the House. Among the Republicans who may challenge Beilenson is Thousand Oaks Assemblyman Tom McClintock.

Many delegation observers--including, privately, some Republicans--say it would be detrimental to California interests in Washington, at least in the short term, should any of these longtime Democrats suffer defeat.

The only Republican incumbent placed in peril by an unfriendly district is freshman Frank Riggs of Windsor.

California is certain to feel the effects of losing four House members who are running for one of two U.S. Senate seats this year. They are Rep. Mel Levine (D-Santa Monica), Rep. Barbara Boxer (D-San Francisco), Rep. Tom Campbell (R-Stanford) and Rep. William E. Dannemeyer (R-Fullerton). Rep. Glenn M. Anderson (D-San Pedro) has announced his retirement.

Incumbents usually enjoy such an overwhelming advantage in elections that they have little reason to fear defeat; only four sitting California congressmen have been ousted from office since 1982. But the combination of reapportionment and a rising anti-incumbent fever could change the pattern in California.

Both 1992 and 1994 will be “tumultuous” political years, said Rep. Robert Matsui (D-Sacramento). “We will see more members lose than we have in the past decade.”

Such turnover could reshape a California delegation that has been deeply split along ideological lines. While some of the safest seats in the state belong to ardent conservatives in Orange County and impassioned liberals in the San Francisco Bay Area, the increased number of competitive districts could produce more moderate lawmakers.

“You are going to see some members in very competitive districts begin to move to the center,” Matsui said. “That is healthy. We don’t really have a center right now.”

Others are skeptical that this trend, if it develops, will make much of a difference.

“I doubt that we will see California Democrats and Republicans working more closely together,” said Bruce Cain, associate director of the Institute of Governmental Studies at UC Berkeley. “Instead of talking about one delegation, we will be talking about two delegations as we always have for the past 20 years.”

Potential intraparty clashes between incumbents were largely avoided by the expanded delegation. The lone exception is in San Diego’s 51st District, where Republicans Bill Lowery and Randy (Duke) Cunningham are squaring off.

The two congressmen each expressed chagrin at the other’s decision before swapping harsh attacks: Cunningham called Lowery a back-stabber who had done “a lousy job” in Congress; Lowery lambasted Cunningham for failing to register to vote between 1966 and 1988. The Lowery-Cunningham matchup creates a sixth vacant district which, combined with the seven new districts, brings the total of open seats this year to 13.

New districts were created as potential Latino seats in San Jose, the San Joaquin Valley, San Diego and Los Angeles. The only Latino candidate expected to win, however, is Assemblywoman Lucille Roybal-Allard, the daughter of Rep. Edward R. Roybal (D-Los Angeles). She is considered a heavy favorite in the 80% Latino district unless state Sen. Art Torres (D-Los Angeles) decides to oppose her.

“That is going to be the most Latino district in the country,” said MALDEF’s Vargas. “Whoever ends up representing that district in Congress is going to have to be the one that will have to most vocally raise Latino concerns in terms of the national agenda.”

Latinos are more likely to benefit from redistricting toward the end of the 1990s as new candidates emerge and voter registration drives take hold, political observers say.

“The racial diversification of representation in California is not going to happen overnight,” said Cain of UC Berkeley. “There are too many areas where Latinos may constitute a majority of districts, but don’t come close to constituting a majority of the electorate.”

The new map, though, may chart a course for a number of Sacramento legislators to move to Washington. Proposition 140, which limits the terms of members of the state Assembly and Senate, has intensified the biennial game of musical political chairs.

More than a dozen state legislators and at least three former Sacramento lawmakers are weighing congressional bids. Among those with the best shots of making the jump are Roybal-Allard; state Sen. Ed Royce (R-Anaheim) and Assemblyman William P. Baker (R-Danville). Other strong contenders are Assemblyman Phillip Wyman (R-Tehachapi), Assemblyman William J. Filante (R-Greenbrae) and Sen. Wadie P. Deddeh (D-Bonita).

Lawmakers on the comeback trail are Richardson and former Assemblymen Chuck Bader and Dennis Brown.

The new electoral opportunities have also sparked interest among the offspring of a number of familiar California faces, including Long Beach City Councilman Evan Anderson Braude, who may seek the Democratic nomination in a GOP-leaning Long Beach seat being vacated by Anderson, his stepfather.

Also considering a race in Anderson’s reconstituted 36th District is Maureen Reagan, the daughter of former President Ronald Reagan. She would join a tough Republican primary field expected to include Los Angeles City Councilwoman Joan Milke Flores and attorney William Beverly, the son of state Sen. Robert G. Beverly (R-Los Angeles).

If Roybal-Allard and her father are both successful, they would become the first father-and-daughter team in Congress.