NEWS ANALYSIS : Tsongas, Clinton Are Nearing a Campaign Crossroads : Politics: Primaries in Georgia, Maryland and Colorado could produce a quick knockout or start a war of attrition.

For former Massachusetts Sen. Paul E. Tsongas and Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton, the leading contenders for the 1992 Democratic presidential nomination, the competition in three primaries Tuesday looms as a critical turning point.

In one direction lies a bitter, protracted struggle that Tsongas would have a reasonable chance of winning. The other road would almost certainly be much shorter and lead to a Clinton victory.

To a degree, voters who cast ballots in each of the seven caucuses and primaries taking place across the nation on Tuesday will influence which route the campaign takes.

But by far the greatest impact is expected to come from the results of the three primary contests--in Georgia, Maryland and Colorado--on which the candidates have lavished most of their time and funds.

Tsongas leads in polls in Colorado and Maryland. If he can win both of these contests, and perform respectably elsewhere, “that sets the stage for an incredibly extended campaign,” said former Colorado Gov. Richard D. Lamm, a Clinton supporter.

Under these circumstances, “the advantage would shift to Tsongas,” said Prof. Merle Black, a political scientist at Emory University in Atlanta.

On the other hand, if Clinton can, as expected, win the Georgia primary with a sizable majority and overtake Tsongas in either Maryland or Colorado, the momentum would probably swing sharply in his direction.

But given the extremely volatile mood of the electorate, these calculations could be altered between now and Tuesday’s voting if any of the other candidates--former California Gov. Edmund G. (Jerry) Brown Jr., Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin or Nebraska Sen. Bob Kerrey--show a sudden surge of strength.

No matter who benefits, the outcome of the three primaries is likely to be of great symbolic significance.

The reasons are rooted in the 1992 campaign’s relatively late start and the relative obscurity of the candidates. These factors have combined to hinder voters from developing strong ties to any of the contenders and thus foster an environment conducive to dramatic swings in voter sentiment.

“I have never seen our caucuses in such flux,” said Mike Wetherell, Democratic state chairman in Idaho, where Tuesday’s precinct caucuses will begin the process of selecting 18 convention delegates. “You’re not getting the traditional support groups behind the candidate because there hasn’t been time for that to develop.”

Just how fickle voters are likely to be this year was demonstrated in New Hampshire, when Clinton, who got off to a strong start, was confronted with unsubstantiated allegations that he had an extramarital affair and accusations that he had manipulated his draft status to avoid military service during the Vietnam War.

His standing plummeted from a 20-percentage-point lead in the polls to a second-place finish in that primary, nine points behind Tsongas.

Clinton has tried to offset that setback by claiming to have made a comeback in New Hampshire and by taking advantage of his superior resources to cast himself as the only truly “national” candidate in the race.

But even some of his own supporters privately concede that this claim will begin to sound hollow if Clinton’s success on Tuesday is limited to Georgia, part of his Southern turf. “If by the close of the voting on Tuesday Clinton has not won something outside the South, he’ll be in danger of losing his aura of inevitability as the nominee,” said one key campaign official, who spoke on condition that his name not be used.

“We have to win Georgia,” said Clinton campaign consultant Paul Begala. “A breakthrough in one of the other two states (Maryland and Colorado) would be a harbinger of a shorter campaign.”

Absent such a breakthrough, Begala said, “we’d start playing a delegate game.” Such strategy would aim at gaining the nomination by accumulating a majority of delegates over the long run, rather than through some dramatic victory that would gain momentum for Clinton and undercut support for his rivals.

Most analysts believe Clinton would be better able than Tsongas to win a war of attrition. But they also point out that during the course of such a prolonged struggle, he would be vulnerable to a renewal of the controversies about his personal life that have marred his campaign.

Meanwhile, Tsongas has had troubles of his own gaining a firm footing on the presidential campaign trail’s rugged terrain. After his New Hampshire triumph, he had to settle for a narrow victory over Brown in the Maine caucuses, and then wound up with a dismal fourth-place finish in the South Dakota primary when he could not respond effectively to criticism from his rivals.

The key question about the future of Tsongas’ candidacy is whether he learned enough from that experience to respond effectively to Clinton, who is now attacking Tsongas’ pro-business economic views as “cold-blooded” and akin to GOP-style “trickle-down economics.”

Here is a brief look at the three key primary battlegrounds:

COLORADO: Tsongas’ strength in this Rocky Mountain state far from his New England home base is remarkable, considering he had not even campaigned here until last week. Local Democrats credit his New Hampshire victory and his image as what Lamm calls “an anti-political politician” for his strength here, where 47 delegates are at stake.

Also, Tsongas’ mix of social liberalism and pro-growth economics finds a receptive climate here. But his lead over Clinton in a Denver Post poll released Saturday was only 6 percentage points, and the margin of error for the survey was 5.7 points.

GEORGIA: “I don’t think there is any way Clinton can lose Georgia,” said Scotty Greenwood, executive director of the state Democratic Party. No one else does either. But the question is not only whether Clinton comes in first in this contest for 76 delegates, but also, if he wins, what will be the size of his victory margin.

Recent polls show Clinton with about 40% of the vote, more than 20 percentage points ahead of Tsongas. But Black says Clinton needs at least 50% for a win that would build momentum.

MARYLAND: With a substantial number of white-collar, upper-middle-class Democratic primary voters, this state is well-tailored to Tsongas. And with a Potomac Survey Research poll taken last week showing 69% of Maryland Democrats expecting the economy to worsen, Tsongas’ economic message has helped.

Striving to catch up in the contest for 67 delegates, Clinton has heavy backing from state and local officials and expects significant support from Baltimore’s black voters--if he can get them to turn out on Tuesday. But a poll released Saturday by Potomac Survey Research gives Tsongas 35%, compared to 23% for Clinton, with a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points

Of Tuesday’s other four contests, the Washington state caucuses, with 71 delegates at stake, are probably the most hotly contested between Tsongas, the apparent front-runner, and Clinton, who is aiming for a surprise victory that would partly offset defeats in Maryland and Colorado. In liberal Minnesota, Harkin is favored to win the lion’s share of 78 delegates, with Kerrey a probable second.

Clinton was the early favorite in the Utah primary competition for 23 delegates, but Tsongas has launched a last-minute blitz of television ads.

In the Idaho caucuses, Wetherell says first place could go to any one of the five candidates--or to an uncommitted slate of delegates.

Times staff writer David Lauter contributed to this story.