Democrats on Trail West Facing Major Showdowns : Politics: Series of primaries, caucuses will pick 230 delegates in week, may substantially influence the race.

This year, as in most years, the Democratic presidential candidates are spending more time among the magnolias than the sagebrush.

But that is starting to change. Although the showdowns looming in the South through Super Tuesday on March 10 have received more attention from the candidates and the media, a newly concentrated series of Western primaries and caucuses over the next week--headlined by Tuesday’s high-profile primary in Colorado--could substantially influence the shape of the Democratic race.

Overall, seven Western states will select 230 delegates through next Sunday--more than are at stake in Florida, Illinois or Texas. Western voters will begin to make their mark Tuesday when Colorado and Utah hold primaries, and Washington and Idaho Democrats vote in caucuses; Arizona and Wyoming will hold caucuses on Saturday, as will Nevada next Sunday.

For each of the Democratic contenders, this turn of the trail through the West poses important threats and opportunities.

For Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton and former Massachusetts Sen. Paul E. Tsongas, the Western contests--particularly the hard-fought battles in Colorado and Washington--present a crucial test of their ability to draw outside of their home region.

For Nebraska Sen. Bob Kerrey, who had been expected to run strongly across the region, a poor showing--particularly in Colorado, where he has lagged badly in recent polls--could virtually undermine his remaining prospects, many analysts believe. Likewise, Iowa Sen. Tom Harkin, reeling after poor showings in the three contests that followed the caucuses in his native state, has largely staked his slim hopes for recovery on convincing finishes in caucuses in Washington and Idaho, as well as Minnesota.

For former California Gov. Edmund G. (Jerry) Brown Jr., the West offers two opportunities. Brown has the chance to pick up delegates in low-turnout caucuses across the Mountain States where his base of committed supporters may allow him to stage the same kind of surprise he did in the Maine caucuses a week ago, when he virtually tied with Tsongas. (The Maine vote was so close that the winner won’t be known for another week.) And Brown seems poised to attract his largest vote total yet in Colorado, where he is running a strong third behind Tsongas and Clinton.

Of the Western states, Colorado has drawn, by far, the most attention from the candidates. As a neighboring senator who attracted many supporters of former Colorado Sen. Gary Hart, Kerrey has been pegged by most analysts as the early front-runner. But his campaign here has clearly faltered: In a Denver Post/News 4 poll published Sunday, Kerrey ran a weak fourth. Tsongas led the field at 26%, followed by Clinton at 24%, Brown at 19%, and then Kerrey at 7% and Harkin at 3%. One-fifth of those surveyed said they were uncommitted or undecided. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 5.7 percentage points.

“I think it is bewildering why Brown has done as well as he has here and why Kerrey is doing as poorly as he is,” Sen. Timothy E. Wirth (D-Colo.) said.

Virtually moving into Colorado over the last week, Brown has invigorated his familiar anti-politics message with a sweeping environmental appeal that has caused his support to surge in this green- and reform-oriented state. “People here are very tired of Washington being an ethics-free zone, and he is touching that chord,” said Rep. Patricia Schroeder, who has endorsed Tsongas.

Though Brown’s ascent shows no signs of slackening, most analysts believe that the race will still come down to Clinton and Tsongas. Both display the iconoclasm toward party traditions that Democrats here have favored since Hart’s election to the Senate in 1974. But, as in New Hampshire, they are appealing to starkly different constituencies.

Tsongas is leading Clinton among suburban and well-educated voters--a significant advantage in a state with plenty of both, said Denver pollster Floyd Ciruli. “The demographics are good for Tsongas,” Ciruli said. “Our primaries historically have been dominated by white, baby boom, moderate-to-liberal voters.”

Clinton is trying to counter Tsongas by attracting blue-collar and minority votes from cities such as Pueblo. To sharpen his class appeal, Clinton is running ads that accuse Tsongas of favoring the rich and Wall Street. But many observers believe Clinton is being hindered by the perception that he is too slick a politician, especially in contrast to Tsongas.

“Clinton is the prototype of the ideal candidate as we have known it since (John F.) Kennedy,” says Colorado Gov. Roy Romer. “And then Tsongas comes along, and he’s got a lisp, and he’s boring--and people are saying, stylistically as well as substantively, ‘I’ll take what’s not in (vogue).’ ”

In Utah, the only other Western state holding a primary this week, a poll published Sunday in the Salt Lake Tribune showed Tsongas at 26%--giving him a roughly 2-to-1 advantage over both Clinton and Brown; Kerrey and Harkin lagged in single digits.

The political landscape is murkier in the five other Western states slated to hold caucuses through next Sunday. With turnout likely to be low, polls may be of little use in predicting the results. “There’s nobody in any campaign who knows what’s going to happen in the caucuses,” says Stanley B. Greenberg, Clinton’s pollster.

With 71 delegates at stake, Washington’s caucuses have been the most hotly contested. Clinton has substantial organizational support, particularly from the politically savvy state employees union. But Tsongas has ridden a favorable wave of post-New Hampshire publicity--much like the surge that carried a lightly organized Gary Hart to victory over Walter. F. Mondale here in 1984.

Harkin also has attracted substantial backing among labor and peace organizations, but fears about his viability may be corroding his support.

Brown drew enthusiastic crowds in the state last week, but he angered many Washington Democrats by backing a term-limit initiative on last fall’s ballot.

The caucuses in Wyoming and Idaho--which between them attracted only 7,601 voters in 1988--have been virtually ignored this time around. Harkin visited Idaho once over the weekend, and Kerrey is due to arrive today.

In Arizona and Nevada, which vote next weekend, Kerrey has put together solid organizations. But analysts say that may avail him little if his campaign appears damaged after Tuesday’s results.

Tsongas and Clinton ran one-two in an Arizona poll published last week, but local political officials say Clinton has constructed a much more effective organization for getting his supporters to the caucuses.