Tsongas Seeking Super Tuesday ‘Silver Medal’ : Democrats: Solid second could buoy him in coming Midwest battles. Clinton favored in Southern primaries.

In selecting the Alamo for the kickoff rally of his Super Tuesday primary campaign in Texas, Democratic presidential contender Paul E. Tsongas could hardly have made a more appropriate choice. For Tsongas’ prospects of victory against Bill Clinton’s Southern juggernaut are about as slim as were the chances of the Alamo’s tiny band of defenders against the besieging Mexican army.

But if there’s little doubt that Clinton will be the overall winner on Super Tuesday--with seven of 11 contests in Southern or border states--what remains uncertain is the extent of his margin. And this will bear heavily on the future of the Democratic race.

The bigger and broader Clinton’s success, the stronger the Arkansas governor will be for the next week’s tests in Illinois and Michigan.

“If the day turns out to be the kind of day we think it might be, we should have a boost and that should provide us momentum going into Illinois and Michigan,” says David Wilhelm, Clinton’s campaign manager.

On the other hand, if Tsongas can manage respectable second-place finishes in the Deep South and win or come close in Florida--which has the second-largest number of delegates--the former Massachusetts senator will be able to battle Clinton on competitive terms in the Midwest primaries. Tsongas calls this his “silver medal” strategy.

But to accomplish this Tsongas will have to at least partly overcome three factors that weigh heavily in Clinton’s favor: the affinity of Southerners for their native son, Clinton’s huge edge in money and organization and the apparent broader appeal of Clinton’s economic message.

Adding to Tsongas’ problems is the presence in the race of former California Gov. Edmund G. (Jerry) Brown Jr., who has been campaigning in Texas, Florida and Mississippi. Tsongas strategists worry that Brown tends to appeal mainly to suburbanites and environmentalists--the sort of voters who make up Tsongas’ main base of support.

But it is clear that the two primary protagonists of the Super Tuesday drama are Tsongas, the winner of last month’s New Hampshire primary, and Clinton, whose already bright prospects on Tuesday were improved by his big victory in Saturday’s South Carolina primary.

Clinton has brought to the Super Tuesday battlegrounds his promise of a middle-class tax cut, his pledge to promote economic equity along with economic growth and his doctrine of what Wilhelm calls “people-oriented economics,” with its stress on such things as education, job training and apprenticeship programs.

All this seems to be appealing far more to the blacks and the Bubbas who make up much of the Democratic electorate than the pro-business doctrines Tsongas advocates.

“I’m saying to the wealthy people of this country very simply if you invest in America you do very well,” Tsongas said, explaining his advocacy of a capital gains tax cut in last week’s nationally televised debate in Dallas. “You have to give the people who have the funds the incentive not to go out and consume but to invest so people have jobs.”

Merle Black, Emory University specialist in political science, said: “Tsongas appeals to investment-banker Democrats. There are not many votes in Southern Democratic primaries for a candidate like that.”

But there are some, even here in Texas--particularly among the more affluent and the better educated. They were at the Alamo rally, where they heard Tsongas invoke the defenders of the historic fortress in 1836 to bolster his argument that the middle-class tax cut Clinton favors is really “pandering” for votes.

“The people who died here wanted the truth,” Tsongas said. “When politicians bid against each other over tax cuts, they are not descendants of those who died here.”

His message went over well. “He tells the truth and he’s not packaged by Madison Avenue,” said Myrna Von Nimitz, a San Antonio housewife.

But if Tsongas gets extra points for candor, Clinton wins support by flavoring his economic maxims with a folksy style and earthy metaphors.

In Tampa, Fla., he sat under an oak tree overhung with Spanish moss by the banks of the Hillsborough River. There, Clinton told a crowd of mostly senior citizens of the need for the country to turn its back on what he said were the inequities of Republican economic policies.

In the process, he skewered Tsongas, whom he has accused of favoring his own version of the “trickle down” approach to economics associated with Republicans.

“We need to reject the idea that we don’t have to worry about the vast mass of people, just give to the folks at the top and they’ll take care of everybody else,” Clinton said. “Another bad idea is to have growth now and fairness later.

“That’s a load of bull,” Clinton said. “America can’t have growth without fairness.”

That appealed to Sandy Rocha, a 70-year-old retired seamstress. “I like the way he talks,” she said after the river-side speech. “I think he’s going to change the way the economy is and make it better for more people.”

“He’s a real people person,” said Kay King, political director of the Classroom Teachers Assn., who set up the event.

To make the most of his message in the contests against Tsongas, Clinton can rely on superior organization and greater funds almost everywhere.

The organizational advantage derives in part from money and in part from the prominent Democrats who are backing his candidacy. No fewer than four of his fellow governors have endorsed him--Ned McWherter in Tennessee, Edwin W. Edwards in Louisiana, Bruce G. Sundlun in Rhode Island and John Waihee in Hawaii.

By comparison the biggest name Tsongas has on his side in these states is Sen. David L. Boren of Oklahoma, which as it happens is the one state where Tsongas is not on the ballot because of a technical mix-up over the filing laws.

As for money, Federal Election Commission records and interviews with campaign officials indicate that although Tsongas’ fund raising picked up dramatically after his New Hampshire victory last month, Clinton has maintained a substantial edge.

Overall, at the end of January, Clinton had nearly $1.4 million more in cash than Tsongas had. This advantage was important because it allowed Clinton to invest in establishing organizations in the Super Tuesday states. And since then Clinton appears to have received about $2 million more than Tsongas, allowing him to spend more money in more places than his rival.

Of the 11 contests Tuesday, eight are primaries and three are caucuses. Here is a look at the primaries in order of the number of delegates at stake in each.

Texas: 196 delegates. Clinton has lined up an impressive list of endorsements from state party leaders along with the backing of three potent interest groups--the Mexican-American Democrats, the Coalition of Black Democrats and the Texas State Teachers Assn.

By contrast, Tsongas did not even open a campaign office in Texas until late February. Recent polls show Clinton ahead by more than 2 to 1. But Tsongas’ campaign chairman, former Rep. Bob Krueger, thinks Tsongas can finish a “strong second” by targeting upscale areas, such as Austin, San Antonio and the Houston and Dallas suburbs. But Brown could take votes in these areas, too.

Florida: 97 delegates. This southernmost of states is also in many ways the least Southern because of the big proportion of ex-Northerners in its population. This is why Tsongas has concentrated his efforts here and why some think he has a chance to win.

But Clinton began organizing here last fall, when he won a state party straw poll. He has the backing of more than 200 state and local officials. In addition, Clinton’s coordinator, Jeff Eller, says his candidate got a boost from his victories in Georgia and South Carolina last week. Also, Tsongas’ support for an increase in the gasoline tax is said to be hurting him in this tourist-dependent state.

Massachusetts: 94 delegates. In his home state, Tsongas is naturally expected to win big. But Clinton has an organization here and expects to take some delegates.

Tennessee: 68 delegates. Along with Gov. McWherter, Clinton has the backing of all six Democratic congressmen and nearly 50 legislators and is considered to be far in front. But Tsongas has campaigned in the state and expects to do well enough in the Nashville and Memphis suburbs to win delegates there.

Louisiana: 60 delegates. “Clinton is phenomenally strong here,” said Louisiana State Treasurer Mary Landrieu, who leads the Clinton forces. Tsongas all but conceded the state but nevertheless hopes to get at least past the 15% of the vote threshold required to win delegates. “I think a low turnout would help us here,” said David Crais, Tsongas’ state director in Louisiana.

Oklahoma: 45 delegates. With Tsongas not on the ballot, Clinton has everything going his own way. Brown will finish second. The question is whether he will win any delegates.

Mississippi: 39 delegates. Here, too, Clinton is far ahead and Tsongas has all but abandoned the state. But Brown in a last-minute surprise campaigned last week in Jackson with the Rev. Jesse Jackson and made a substantial television buy in that city. The ad targets black voters, describing Brown as “a man who really cares about helping people” and showing Brown during his service with Mother Teresa in India and in a black church.

Rhode Island: 22 delegates. Tsongas is favored here in his own back yard. But Clinton’s forces have bought time on television and see the chance of an upset with the help of Gov. Sundlun and a substantial blue collar element.

Times staff writers David Lauter in Washington and J. Michael Kennedy in Houston contributed to this story.